Tropical Wave WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 91L)

[LarryWx]

0Z:
-Icon is a little SW of the 12Z with it at 18N, 55W at 180 moving WNW

-The UKMET on again off again is now back to off with the low not strong enough to be classified a TD.

-Early in the GFS run, it’s a little N of the 18Z position at 138 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems the tutt shears this some this run of the GFS between 50 and 60 W but looks to be restrenghening there after

[Stratton23]

Looks like the trough is leaving this system behind on the 00z GFS, looks like ridging is attempting to build to its north

[AxaltaRacing24]

Alright this run is getting a bit silly.

[Pelicane]

Ton of shear near Florida, so it'll weaken if this somehow verifies.

[LAF92]

Ton of shear near Florida, so it'll weaken if this somehow verifies.

Makes a hard right turn. Doesn’t hit any land in the Caribbean or Florida. That was a wild run. Hopefully the rest of the run it heads OTS.

[Stratton23]

It eventually does get picked up by the trough, but i definitely can say this is far from a sure lock of being a fish storm, very complex steering pattern

[abajan]

Excerpt from 2 a.m. TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or this weekend over the eastern or central tropical
Atlantic while moving slowly toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10
mph. The system is likely to move faster toward the west or
west-northwest thereafter and reach the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Cachondo23]

Euro only model hitting the islands atm, they can be heavy winners or a big bust. We shall see….

[kevin]

00z Euro is a Irma-Dorian combo, but of course less intense than either storm. Hits the islands and then seems to beeline to Miami as a MH, but turns NNW at the last possible moment (even closer to the US than Dorian). Will still definitely hit the US as it recurves, but SW Florida seems to be spared this run.

[cycloneye]

It is starting to concentrate.

[Cachondo23]

00z Euro is a Irma-Dorian combo, but of course less intense than either storm. Hits the islands and then seems to beeline to Miami as a MH, but turns NNW at the last possible moment (even closer to the US than Dorian). Will still definitely hit the US as it recurves, but SW Florida seems to be spared this run.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/LKQjMqx.png[/url
https://i.imgur.com/aQdan9R.png

Scary run going from NE Barbados, passing through Martinique to Guadalupe and finishing by the USVI/BVI area.

[GCANE]

Uh-oh
06Z GFS is looking like 00Z Euro

[kevin]

06z GFS, 00z Euro both go through the Eastern Hebert box and threaten both the islands, Bahamas and the East Coast (including SFL). The thread will probably get some traction as the East Coast wakes up and this will most likely become an invest soon.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS, 00z Euro both go through the Eastern Hebert box and threaten both the islands, Bahamas and the East Coast (including SFL). The thread will probably get some traction as the East Coast wakes up and this will most likely become an invest soon.

The 91L discussion and model threads will get plenty of posts based on the models scenarios.

Until the invest is up, this thread will remain open.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the new GFS run makes a hard right turn over the central Bahamas a la Dorian (not quite as strong but still major)
Caveat ...it's past 300 hours out, so take it with a grain of salt.

[kevin]

06z GEFS has 26 members (84%) with development within 48 hours and 00z Euro has 43 members (84%) within the same time span. Based on this as well as the promising ASCAT pass I wouldn't be surprise if development gets bumped to something like 70/90 and we get an invest.

[cycloneye]

Here is where to look for 91L when it pops up. At that list, below the 06 one will appear.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[TomballEd]

Just saw an X post about this. The Carolinas solution is 2 weeks out. Hype posting it on social media. GFS will probably flip back and forth each run for days.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Just saw an X post about this. The Carolinas solution is 2 weeks out. Hype posting it on social media. GFS will probably flip back and forth each run for days.

The message should be that FL to Nova Scotia is all in play.