95L Invest Thread

[gkrangers]

The thing is its "offical then" It go's into the 2005 record books. In we also get to have the nhc forecasters options on it.

Ok, well it'll be official in 6 hours, big deal, relax, go watch TV or something.

[cycloneye]

SAT Imagery

[Frank2]

Re: Matt-hurricanewatcher & Brent's posts

I know, I know - just don't have an anxiety attack over a bunch of thunderstorms 4,000 miles away from shore!

Frank

[WindRunner]

I have to laugh. I go away to cut grass for an hour and a half, and four pages are added to the thread. Are you guys excited?? I definately think so.

[x-y-no]

I have to laugh. I go away to cut grass for an hour and a half, and four pages are added to the thread. Are you guys excited?? I definately think so.

We want to set a new record for posts about an invest before it's upgraded.

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK then back to observations. Look at the convection firing on the N side of the circulation. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html Remember to select animation anc lick on the image, as if you didn't know

DonSutherland posted a nice storm historical analysis on 95L on the pro board. It's worth checking out to get an idea of storms formed in these parts.

Models don't help much (edit: at this stage) in my mind as far as whether this will impact land. I'd rely on experienced folks at synoptic scale forecasting for system that is/will be this large. I am not concerned with NHC advisory timing since I am sure they have the need for data, and once they start talking about this one everybody will want to know where it's going

[cycloneye]

I have to laugh. I go away to cut grass for an hour and a half, and four pages are added to the thread. Are you guys excited?? I definately think so.

We want to set a new record for posts about an invest before it's upgraded.

I will let it pass 15 pages.

Jan when you begin to get the 12z run of GFS start to post that to see what that run shows.

[HurricaneGirl]

It's going to be a big one!

[Scorpion]

Wow, the circulation is huge. I would love to see this thing reach Cat 5. Would be a thing of beauty.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Me to. This thing would be huge!!!

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think an opportunity to see TD9 posted has passed.. By that I mean when the 5:00 comes out, they will say TS. All sat data says TS.

[HURAKAN]

We could see something like this:

TROPICAL STORM ISABEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2003

...ISABEL FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE SEASON...

AT 9 AM AST...1300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES...1000 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 9 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


In 2003, the advisories for Isabel never initiated the system as a depression but as a tropical storm. The only difference this year could be that it will be IRENE.

[SouthFloridawx]

quickscat

14:03 UTC

[EDR1222]

Still has a real good twist to it. They may possibly just call it a tropical storm.

[WindRunner]

I'm thinking for 40-45kt storm at 5pm at this rate.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now thats a well defined LLC. There is a few areas to the southeast of 35 to 40 knots. This will be a tropical storm at 5pm.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thunderstorms starting to fire around the center. This thing is gonna wind up soon if the convection continues to fire up. Any dry air getting in this thing?

[BensonTCwatcher]

We could see something like this:

TROPICAL STORM ISABEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2003

...ISABEL FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE SEASON...

AT 9 AM AST...1300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES...1000 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 9 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


In 2003, the advisories for Isabel never initiated the system as a depression but as a tropical storm. The only difference this year could be that it will be IRENE.

Kinda creepy huh? Both near the same position and jumped out as I-storm?

[vbhoutex]

This is why we are here is to watch hurricanes/cyclones. So yes we get excited over them. I like to see the record book half way useable. The nhc job is to write Advisories on cyclones to keep track of them. Remember there is shiping or sea interest. So by not issuing Advisories on a quickly developing tropical cyclone is wrong. This could become the next Karl.

There is no reason not to upgrade.
1# They upgrade any tropical cyclone. It doe's not matter if its a million miles from land. At least they better because if not the records are worstless.

2# It go's into the record books

3# People can start really watching it. Not us but other people.


Is it really so wrong for me to do what I do?

Matt, there is nothing wrong with becoming excited about a developing tropical disturbance and posting about it. However, second guessing the NHC and stating that they are wrong in not classifying it is IMO as a person interested in the tropics and as a moderator of this site, is wrong. It is fine for you to state the reasons you think it should be classified. It is not fine to "bash" the NHC and their not classifying it.

[dgparent]

We could see something like this:

TROPICAL STORM ISABEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2003

...ISABEL FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE SEASON...

AT 9 AM AST...1300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES...1000 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 9 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N... 34.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


In 2003, the advisories for Isabel never initiated the system as a depression but as a tropical storm. The only difference this year could be that it will be IRENE.

Isabel was not to kind to NC, of course that formed on Sept 6th and it is only Aug 4th amazing !!

9 AM AST SAT SEP 06 2003