Arlene..very early in the season...was it Arlene or Cindy that may have reached hurricane strength, I can't remember...
Bret...had what, 36 hours over water?
Cindy...had organizational problems from the beginning...see Arlene..I can't remember which one may have been a hurricane based on buoy obs and recon.
Dennis...major.
Emily...major.
Franklin...developed and moved out to sea...not in the best environment for becoming a hurricane.
Gert...see Bret.
Harvey...similar to Franklin, out in "that" part of the Atlantic, considerable shear, SSTs, and its original subtropical nature.
The only storms that had a really good chance of becoming hurricanes were Dennis and Emily..and they were both borderline Category 5 at one point. And then there was 1 of Arlene/Cindy that may have reached hurricane status right before landfall..I just can't ermember which, such a long time ago.
Anyway...I just don't think there is much to read into yet.
Essentially 6 storms had a chance...Dennis and Emily made it...Harvey and Franklin had a chance, however slight...and Cindy and Arlene an even smaller chance..and 1 of those likely was a hurricane.
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Brent
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gkrangers wrote:Arlene..very early in the season...was it Arlene or Cindy that may have reached hurricane strength, I can't remember...
Bret...had what, 36 hours over water?
Cindy...had organizational problems from the beginning...see Arlene..I can't remember which one may have been a hurricane based on buoy obs and recon.
Dennis...major.
Emily...major.
Franklin...developed and moved out to sea...not in the best environment for becoming a hurricane.
Gert...see Bret.
Harvey...similar to Franklin, out in "that" part of the Atlantic, considerable shear, SSTs, and its original subtropical nature.
The only storms that had a really good chance of becoming hurricanes were Dennis and Emily..and they were both borderline Category 5 at one point. And then there was 1 of Arlene/Cindy that may have reached hurricane status right before landfall..I just can't ermember which, such a long time ago.
Anyway...I just don't think there is much to read into yet.
Essentially 6 storms had a chance...Dennis and Emily made it...Harvey and Franklin had a chance, however slight...and Cindy and Arlene an even smaller chance..and 1 of those likely was a hurricane.
Cindy may have been a hurricane when it was making landfall near New Orleans... Arlene was nearly one well before landfall but weakened.
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#neversummer
Latest satellite images suggest that the center may be turning back WNW again.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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storms in NC
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gkrangers
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deltadog03
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Don't be so quick to judge,I certainly see this now as a Fish system as its heading NW already,however Jeanne was exactly the same last year when it passed Haiti and was wrecked,although it took 2 days for it to re-form and under hotter waters it goes to prove that storms can survive these sorts of things.
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SouthFloridawx
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FSU MM5 was all over that movement
the FSU MM5 was all over the move to the nw last night. I was showing it yesterday and I was sitting there scratching my head wondering what it was thinking. This is the 1418 run for the mm5.
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BensonTCwatcher
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OK here's my 2 cent analysis:
NOTE: THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL. SEE S2K DISCLAIMER
This caught me by surprise as well. I certainly thought the system would have continued the slow steady development based on the organization and size. I had thought the ULL to it's SW would have eliminated the dry air ahead of it. I did post that I thought the system would break out of the ITCZ at around 40W as well formed cyclone and begin to move poleward based on the re-building of the sub-tropical ridge and a lack of any other steering influence.
OK then, having said all that I see the following 2 likely scenarios based on my observations and the professional analysis posted on this board and the NHC.
1. The storm, while weakend by the diversion into the weakness in the ridge, will respond to the overall westerly upper air flow and retain enough LLC to re-organize into a slow developing cyclone east of the islands. From there it all depends on the strenghth and orientation of the ST ridge as to impact. Based on climo history, I'd rate the chances of this happening at less than 2%, but based on on observations I'll raise that to 20%
2. The storm will continue N into the weakness in the ridge, which will not build back in time to prevent the dry air and cooler SST's to dissipate it. 80% on that happening.
I thought it necessary to recap my previous bullish posts on this system. In 24 hours we will be either be talking a lot anout scenario #1 or not at all about #2
NOTE: THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL. SEE S2K DISCLAIMER
This caught me by surprise as well. I certainly thought the system would have continued the slow steady development based on the organization and size. I had thought the ULL to it's SW would have eliminated the dry air ahead of it. I did post that I thought the system would break out of the ITCZ at around 40W as well formed cyclone and begin to move poleward based on the re-building of the sub-tropical ridge and a lack of any other steering influence.
OK then, having said all that I see the following 2 likely scenarios based on my observations and the professional analysis posted on this board and the NHC.
1. The storm, while weakend by the diversion into the weakness in the ridge, will respond to the overall westerly upper air flow and retain enough LLC to re-organize into a slow developing cyclone east of the islands. From there it all depends on the strenghth and orientation of the ST ridge as to impact. Based on climo history, I'd rate the chances of this happening at less than 2%, but based on on observations I'll raise that to 20%
2. The storm will continue N into the weakness in the ridge, which will not build back in time to prevent the dry air and cooler SST's to dissipate it. 80% on that happening.
I thought it necessary to recap my previous bullish posts on this system. In 24 hours we will be either be talking a lot anout scenario #1 or not at all about #2
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storms in NC
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Re: FSU MM5 was all over that movement
southfloridawx2005 wrote:the FSU MM5 was all over the move to the nw last night. I was showing it yesterday and I was sitting there scratching my head wondering what it was thinking. This is the 1418 run for the mm5.
So you are saying it will turn back to the west north west?
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SouthFloridawx
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no
No, I wasn't saying that... I was just pointing out an observation not a prediction. I was trying to show something interesting about a model that is rarely right....
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BensonTCwatcher
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YIKES I am in agreement with teh MM5?? I had better pay closer attention? ...oh wait I am only 20% in agreement. Still probably too much addressing complaints about the drastic change in the NHC forecast that were posted in the now locked advisory thread...
How on earth could he keep continuity with the forecast? Consider that the 11 PM forecast from last night put the system at 14.3 North at 8 AM this morning and the 5 AM forecast predicted a 2 PM position of 15.1N... with the 11 AM position being 16.4 N events had shredded the previous forecasts. There is no way he could have gently adjusted them for continuity's sake. Not if he wanted any hope of putting out an accurate forecast.
As for the change in intensity forecast, just look at the SST chart: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif ... the new course puts it over waters 2-3° cooler than what it would have been over. Again, no way you can change the forecast gently to reflect the new reality.
How on earth could he keep continuity with the forecast? Consider that the 11 PM forecast from last night put the system at 14.3 North at 8 AM this morning and the 5 AM forecast predicted a 2 PM position of 15.1N... with the 11 AM position being 16.4 N events had shredded the previous forecasts. There is no way he could have gently adjusted them for continuity's sake. Not if he wanted any hope of putting out an accurate forecast.
As for the change in intensity forecast, just look at the SST chart: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif ... the new course puts it over waters 2-3° cooler than what it would have been over. Again, no way you can change the forecast gently to reflect the new reality.
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