INVEST 96L

jabber · #241 Postby **jabber** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:07 am

KatDaddy wrote:I expect TD 10 at 11AM. Looking more and more organized this morning.
WE shall see.

Doubt they will update at 11:00... its still a long way from no where. They have time.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #242 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:09 am

Take a look at this. It shows a closed LLC with a 50 knot flag!!! :eek:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

Irene never shown up closed for 3 days on quickscats.

Hyperstorm · #243 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:11 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Take a look at this. It shows a closed LLC with a 50 knot flag!!!

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

Irene never shown up closed for 3 days on quickscats.

That's an old Quikscat. Look at the purple number at the bottom right of the image. It was done at 20:46 GMT yesterday. That is 4:46 pm EDT.

The top image is the current Quikscat. Apparently, it missed the system...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #244 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:13 am

Ok...But it is a good amount more organized now. Thanks for pointing that out.

Hyperstorm · #245 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:18 am

The 1200 models for Invest 96L have been revised. They have upped the wind-speed now at 30kts. Apparently, they're thinking of upgrading it shortly. However, they don't say NONAME...

162
WHXX01 KWBC 131308
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050813 1200 050814 0000 050814 1200 050815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 44.2W 14.7N 45.5W 15.8N 46.4W 16.8N 47.3W
BAMM 13.6N 44.2W 14.6N 45.4W 15.4N 46.3W 16.2N 47.0W
A98E 13.6N 44.2W 14.8N 45.7W 15.9N 47.1W 17.3N 48.5W
LBAR 13.6N 44.2W 15.0N 45.3W 16.5N 46.3W 17.8N 47.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050815 1200 050816 1200 050817 1200 050818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 48.2W 20.2N 50.4W 22.8N 53.2W 25.6N 55.5W
BAMM 16.9N 47.9W 18.5N 50.3W 20.4N 53.5W 23.2N 56.8W
A98E 18.9N 49.5W 22.7N 51.8W 25.6N 53.4W 28.0N 52.6W
LBAR 19.0N 48.2W 22.7N 51.4W 26.7N 54.8W 30.8N 54.3W
SHIP 48KTS 53KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 48KTS 53KTS 57KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 44.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 42.8W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 41.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

#246 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:21 am

Hyperstorm, watch the heading of the model guidance for a clue as to when the NHC is about to upgrade:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050813 1200 UTC

When it stops saying "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST" and changes to "TRPOPICAL DEPRESSION TEN" it's almost a certainty that the system will be upgraded in the next few hours.

Thunder44 · #247 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:21 am

It still says INVEST on the header, so I doubt they will upgrade at 11am. Probably by 5pm.

Hyperstorm · #248 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:23 am

wxman57 wrote:Hyperstorm, watch the heading of the model guidance for a clue as to when the NHC is about to upgrade:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050813 1200 UTC

When it stops saying "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST" and changes to "TRPOPICAL DEPRESSION TEN" it's almost a certainty that the system will be upgraded in the next few hours.

Yes, I noticed that after I posted it. Thanks for pointing it out. I don't know what evidence they have for upping the wind-speed.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #249 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:24 am

Ok...But it is a good amount more organized now. Thanks for pointing that out.

#250 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:25 am

wxman57 wrote:Hyperstorm, watch the heading of the model guidance for a clue as to when the NHC is about to upgrade:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050813 1200 UTC

When it stops saying "TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST" and changes to "TRPOPICAL DEPRESSION TEN" it's almost a certainty that the system will be upgraded in the next few hours.

Yes that is what we have to watch for an upgrade.

#251 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:31 am

Another hint for an upgrade is NRL but so far no change of headers in both the main site or the backup one.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #252 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:33 am

They are on the boarder line of upgrading. They are discusing it right now. By this...It might be upgraded with out of the blue. I'v seen it happen many a time.

Thunder44 · #253 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:34 am

cycloneye wrote:Another hint for an upgrade is NRL but so far no change of headers in both the main site or the backup one.

I believe NRL site reflects off the computer models.

Nimbus · #254 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:38 am

Convection firing up on the west side of the storm.
What are the long range models predicting for track?

du1st · #255 Postby **du1st** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:55 am

It looks like a deprisson to me.

CYCLONE MIKE · #256 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 8:59 am

I just saw an interesting map from the HPC day 6 Thurs. surface progs map. It showed an area of low pressure right over Puerto Rico. Is this 96L or another system ? It also looks to be right under a large high pressure system. Anyone care to go into deeper detail.

Frank2 · #257 Postby **Frank2** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:00 am

Per the Meteosat IR loop, it looks like this system will recurve even earlier than Franklin, Harvey, Irene...

Click on

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

to view

Frank

P.S. Another well-organized system exited Africa on Thursday, and that too can be seen heading northwest just off the African coast.

As mentioned elsewhere yesterday - this may be a record season, but it seems that fortunately this is only true so far in a statistical sense. Last year, on the other hand, did set a record for landfalling systems in Florida.

cinlfla · #258 Postby **cinlfla** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:03 am

Per the Meteosat IR loop, it looks like this system will recurve even earlier than Franklin, Harvey, Irene...

I thought it looked to be going more northward. So I'm guessing this means it will track out to sea.

Frank2 · #259 Postby **Frank2** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:07 am

Yes, if the trough continues to dig unusually far southward as forecast, it most certainly will - and will probably save us from an encounter with a major hurricane.

Frank

jabber · #260 Postby **jabber** » Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:07 am

cinlfla wrote:
Per the Meteosat IR loop, it looks like this system will recurve even earlier than Franklin, Harvey, Irene...

I thought it looked to be going more northward. So I'm guessing this means it will track out to sea.

Yeah, it looks like it. I really hope the rest of the season is not full of fish. Not that I want a Cat 5 stricking anyone. But fish, you gotta admit are pretty dull to track (at least me)

INVEST 96L

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