Katrina Strengthening

[jasons2k]

The exploding intensification of the '35 storm from close to this area gives me the willies.

Please don't flame me, I have NO desire to watch this explode, and don't expect it to reach even Cat 1 at this point. But don't turn your back, and you might want to think about filling the tank and making sure you've got some ice in the freezer starting this afternoon if you're on the East coast of Florida. Even a TS can knock out power and make for a bad few days if you're not stocked up.

Until this system gets into a perfect upper level environment you won't need to fear this scenario.

It looks like a good wind/rain storm for S. Florida on Thursday, but it will have to improve its organization a lot more than it is now to be talking hurricane.

I wouldn't bank on that. Remember Jose just yesterday??? If it had been over water any longer it would have been a 'cane

Are you suggesting that Td12's upper level envrionment is identical to Jose's?

No, just an example

Never say Never

[Frank2]

Chris, are we looking at the same loop?

[sma10]

Until this system gets into a perfect upper level environment you won't need to fear this scenario.

It looks like a good wind/rain storm for S. Florida on Thursday, but it will have to improve its organization a lot more than it is now to be talking hurricane.

Keep in mind many people including you had it as an open wave moving past FL....now look at it...wouldn't be surprised for rapid strenghtening over the next 24-48 hours...

That's completely untrue. I never once forecast this to pass Florida as an open wave. Please do not spread falsehoods.

Yep, never once did sma10 say that. We both have had Florida being affected by a tropical cyclone, including south Florida. Nothing exceptionally strong, but a cyclone none the less.

gk: the problem is that boca_chris is making an incorrect logical jump. Because I ribbed him about being more hysterical than a school girl over this system, he must have assumed that I thought this would just be a wave. Bad assumption.

[becca1695]

[quote="boca_chris"]That's funny you say that, Galveston girl saw similar issues with her pets....?

Anyway, looks like NHC will be forecast a WNW movement or even NW from the special statement:

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.[/quote]


Am I reading that there are three people here who have pets in Texas acting strangely with no storm in close proximity? Have you thought about earthquakes?

[Frank2]

Did anyone consider that since Texas was north of Jose's landfall, this behavior might have been due to that event?

Frank

[sma10]

The exploding intensification of the '35 storm from close to this area gives me the willies.

Please don't flame me, I have NO desire to watch this explode, and don't expect it to reach even Cat 1 at this point. But don't turn your back, and you might want to think about filling the tank and making sure you've got some ice in the freezer starting this afternoon if you're on the East coast of Florida. Even a TS can knock out power and make for a bad few days if you're not stocked up.

Until this system gets into a perfect upper level environment you won't need to fear this scenario.

It looks like a good wind/rain storm for S. Florida on Thursday, but it will have to improve its organization a lot more than it is now to be talking hurricane.

I wouldn't bank on that. Remember Jose just yesterday??? If it had been over water any longer it would have been a 'cane

Are you suggesting that Td12's upper level envrionment is identical to Jose's?

No, just an example

Never say Never

I'm not saying never, either. I'm just basing my opinion on current observation. First of all, Jose looked MUCH BETTER than TD12 does right now. If anyone would like to counter that opinion, feel free. In truth, I believe that TD12 WILL be a significant cyclone somewhere down the line. But not in the short term. Just my opinion.

The beauty of it all is that time will inexorably march on, and the truth will be known.

[Frank2]

Must admit I was beginning to get edgy (tomorrow's our 13th anniversary of Andrew), but just now happened to look at the WV loop, and noticed that TD12's center is just south of an ULL that is running westward in tandem with the system.

Click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

This is perhaps why some of us feel that the environment around TD12 is not very favorable at this time.

Frank

[sma10]

Must admit I was beginning to get edgy (tomorrow's our 13th anniversary of Andrew), but just now happened to look at the WV loop, and noticed that TD12's center is just south of an ULL that is running westward in tandem with the system.

Click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

This is perhaps why some of us feel that the environment around TD12 is not very favorable at this time.

Frank

This may be another reason why the models are not too bullish on strengthening the system until it reaches the Gulf.

[Frank2]

Si - and could explain some of the "banding" seen in visible photos to the northeast and east of the LLC (perhaps due to the ULL's circulation).

Frank

[gatorcane]

Here we go...models are zeroing on Southeast Florida (Palm Beach/Broward/Dade/Monroe)

[gatorcane]

also it looks like it will begin to slow down in progress and by 72 hours perhaps become stationary...that would be bad news for South Florida if it decides to meander off the coast in the Gulf stream.

[Frank2]

Relax - it's still very early in TD12's life cycle, and, with the fairly strong ULL just to it's north (within 1 or 2 degrees), is not in a very favorable environment at this time.

Frank

[gatorcane]

Relax - it's still very early in TD12's life cycle, and, with the fairly strong ULL just to it's north (within 1 or 2 degrees), is not in a very favorable environment at this time.

Frank

Have you seen the latest infrared pics? It doesn't seem like the ULL is doing much to stop the blow in convection with very cold cloud tops.

[Frank2]

As Dr. Lyon's often says, the convection can be strong one hour and weaker the next.

Looking at the obs, the winds are no stronger than earlier, so, that's a good sign, and the center is still very hard to discern on the visible loop.

Frank

[gatorcane]

As Dr. Lyon's often says, the convection can be strong one hour and weaker the next.

Looking at the obs, the winds are no stronger than earlier, so, that's a good sign, and the center is still very hard to discern on the visible loop.

Frank

that's true...

[gatorcane]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...
RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS...
ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

here we go....possible hurricane watch for S. Florida.

[WeatherEmperor]

Okay I give in now. Im getting a bit concerned here.

<RICKY>

[Praxus]

5pm NHC track has the storm heading over Ft.Lauderdale....I wonder what
the chances are of it becoming a hurricane before landfall. Also could easily pass directly over miami based on that track.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Hot Bahamas, low shear, nice visible easterly-southsoutheasterly flow over the area..... And the part that makes me most nervous....


48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W 60 KT


I'm at 26.221469 -080.273806

Thats way too close for comfort. I've been watching this thing just like the rest of us, even when it was deemed dead and buried. This puts the storms center at 92.26 km from me.... yikes, whats that the broward/dade line, and I'm on the dirty side too. WOOHOO! I hope it isn't another Irene tho.... Driving in hood deep water isn't good for anybodies car.

EDIT: Hope the Boca girls stay safe

EDIT2: Drawing a line between the 48-72 hour marks runs through Sunrise, Tamarac, North Lauderdale, Oakland Park, Fort Lauderdale Proper, and probably right over the really nice part of the beach, just north of Las Olas.

[Scorpion]

Certainly could cause lots of flooding. Gonna be moving very slowly.