TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Eyes2theSkies]

correct zooming in will give you all kinds of false movements it looks classic wnw from afar.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Way on earth would you talk about a joke like that? This storm will likely grow stronger through out the next 24 hours. Watch it it might even deepen pretty fast.

[wxman57]

Movement estimate:

2333Z -- 26.0N/77.5W
0035Z -- 26.04N / 77.8W

That's 0.3 degrees west in 1 hour and 2 minutes, giving a speed of 16.5 kts to 273.4 degrees. No way this thing is moving at 8 mph.

[jrod]

How long do you think this 15mph speed will last? According to NHC it is supposed to gradually decrease in forward speed as it approaches the south florida coast. Any thoughts on that?

<RICKY>

I've seen a few models that have it stall just off the SE coast of Florida. Since the storm does appear to be slowing down, I think this can happen and maybe already starting to happen. If that happens then we should expect a lot more than a minimal hurricane.

[jrod]

Movement estimate:

2333Z -- 26.0N/77.5W
0035Z -- 26.04N / 77.8W

That's 0.3 degrees west in 1 hour and 2 minutes, giving a speed of 16.5 kts to 273.4 degrees. No way this thing is moving at 8 mph.

Are you using the radar to estimate the position?

[deltadog03]

i agree its moving fairly quickly...and it appears maybe a jog wsw?? from looking at a zoomed out radar pic

[wxman57]

Radar estimate using GARP:

2337Z: 26.00N / 77.53W
0038Z: 26.02N / 77.82W

Thats about due west at 15.7 kts in the past hour.

[Ivanhater]

its not going wnw...its going west..look at the radar folks

[jrod]

Movement estimate:

2333Z -- 26.0N/77.5W
0035Z -- 26.04N / 77.8W

That's 0.3 degrees west in 1 hour and 2 minutes, giving a speed of 16.5 kts to 273.4 degrees. No way this thing is moving at 8 mph.

Are you using the radar to estimate the position?

Correction, it looked like it was slowing down. Now it looks like its picking up speed again.

[Anonymous]

This now has it's inner core

[Frank P]

Movement estimate:

2333Z -- 26.0N/77.5W
0035Z -- 26.04N / 77.8W

That's 0.3 degrees west in 1 hour and 2 minutes, giving a speed of 16.5 kts to 273.4 degrees. No way this thing is moving at 8 mph.

Are you using the radar to estimate the position?

Using the NWS experiemental radar this is what I have plotted
at 7:53 it was at 26.02n and 77.65w
at 8:44 it was at 25.99n and 77.81w

not much north component in the past 51 minutes.... off radar

[wxman57]

Here's a 2-hour radar estimate:

2242Z: 25.94N / 77.38W
0044Z: 26.02N / 77.83W

That's 24.9 nautical miles toward 280 degrees, or an average of about 12.5 kts. However, it does appear to be accelerating in the past hour.

If it keeps up the current forward speed, it'll be inland by sunrise.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here's a 2-hour radar estimate:

2242Z: 25.94N / 77.38W
0044Z: 26.02N / 77.83W

That's 24.9 nautical miles toward 280 degrees, or an average of about 12.5 kts. However, it does appear to be accelerating in the past hour.

how long will this last? will it ever slow down again?

<RICKY>

[CronkPSU]

Here's a 2-hour radar estimate:

2242Z: 25.94N / 77.38W
0044Z: 26.02N / 77.83W

That's 24.9 nautical miles toward 280 degrees, or an average of about 12.5 kts. However, it does appear to be accelerating in the past hour.

If it keeps up the current forward speed, it'll be inland by sunrise.

well that will certainly be a bad wakeup call for a lot of people

[pcolaguy]

I agree with wxman57

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

this is supposed to slow down prior to landfall.

[wxman57]

This could be just a temporary speed burst. Even so, it means landfall will be earlier on Thursday. It also means less time to strengthen before the first landfall. And it could mean a threat farther westward for landfall #2.

[cycloneye]

KGWC 250005
A. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (TWELVE)
B. 24/2331Z (73)
C. 25.5N/2
D. 77.3W/7
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -24/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...MET
AGREES...BUT PT STILL YIELDS A 2.5.

AODT: T4.3 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI



Air Force gives 3.0 T number for Katrina.

[jasons2k]

Posted new hi-res radar images here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 6&start=20

[MiamiensisWx]

OK, this "pro" met here Mr wxman or whatever the hell your name is, you come out and say it's goin WNW then 5 minutes later you change you mind and it's going due west? If a pro met can't make up his damn mind, the what hope is there for the rest of us?

Do you expect people to be perfect? Are forecasts engraved in stone? Do you expect hurricanes to submit to our will and/or go the place we first originally THOUGHT they would go at the same speed we THOUGHT they would go and that all through that time other factors would remain STAGNANT and there would be NO VARIABLES?

Let's not fight... you never know when you will see some value and/or proof in other peoples' forecasts...