Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[LAwxrgal]

Yep, and Wilma could be a hurricane tomorrow...at this rate, maybe late tonight.

[Derek Ortt]

One difference is that I do not believe we will see cyclonic flow all the way up to about 175mb, like we saw with Rita and Katrina. This is likely to be more of an Atlantic hurricane

[Stormcenter]

Anyone notice that is looking just like Katrina and Rita did before they got an eye and started to strengthen very quickly?

I have a feeling we are watching a replay unfolding...

You are correct. Also, I would not get to excited about the models shifting right if you live in southern Florida just yet. If I do recall a majority of the models had katrina heading up the Florida and barely making it into the GOM. I would not put much faith into the models this far our.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Anyone notice that is looking just like Katrina and Rita did before they got an eye and started to strengthen very quickly?

I have a feeling we are watching a replay unfolding...

Me too-- and with it coming too close for comfort in 5 days...yikes

[markymark8]

The North side of Wilma needs to get her act together especially northwest side if she wants to really start cranking up. I am not saying she cant strengthen slowley but she will never be what forecasters are saying a major cane unless that dry air stops coming into the system from the north. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[Stormcenter]

One difference is that I do not believe we will see cyclonic flow all the way up to about 175mb, like we saw with Rita and Katrina. This is likely to be more of an Atlantic hurricane

So are saying this will not even make it into the GOM?

[Derek Ortt]

where did I mention anything about track?

Structural dynamics have nothing to do with the track. This will resemble the typical Atlantic hurricane, not a WPAC typhoon like Katrina and Rita did

[Ivanhater]

One difference is that I do not believe we will see cyclonic flow all the way up to about 175mb, like we saw with Rita and Katrina. This is likely to be more of an Atlantic hurricane

So are saying this will not even make it into the GOM?

i think he meant an atlantic type storm, not an actual storm in the atlantic, not sure

[MiamiensisWx]

The North side of Wilma needs to get her act together especially northwest side if she wants to really start cranking up. I am not saying she cant strengthen slowley but she will never be what forecasters are saying a major cane unless that dry air stops coming into the system from the north. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Many hurricanes, including Katrina, had dry area around the storm but still strengthened. Katrina is one good out of many examples. Also, the dry air is expected to mix and slowly relax. Does not mean we won't see a major storm.

You know why I think we may have a major out of Wilma? Because what some people are saying - that it won't be as strong - is exactly what they and others said before Katrina. Look what happened... BOOM.

[Stormcenter]

where did I mention anything about track?

Structural dynamics have nothing to do with the track. This will resemble the typical Atlantic hurricane, not a WPAC typhoon like Katrina and Rita did

Sorry but a hurricane is a hurricane the only difference is some are stronger and larger than others.

[artist]

so that is good, right Derek??

[Stormcenter]

One difference is that I do not believe we will see cyclonic flow all the way up to about 175mb, like we saw with Rita and Katrina. This is likely to be more of an Atlantic hurricane

So are saying this will not even make it into the GOM?

i think he meant an atlantic type storm, not an actual storm in the atlantic, not sure

I know how you feel.

[jkt21787]

The North side of Wilma needs to get her act together especially northwest side if she wants to really start cranking up. I am not saying she cant strengthen slowley but she will never be what forecasters are saying a major cane unless that dry air stops coming into the system from the north. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Many hurricanes, including Katrina, had dry area around the storm but still strengthened. Katrina is one good out of many examples. Also, the dry air is expected to mix and slowly relax. Does not mean we won't see a major storm.

You know why I think we may have a major out of Wilma? Because what some people are saying - that it won't be as strong - is exactly what they and others said before Katrina. Look what happened... BOOM.

Another chance arises for Marky

To what you said, I was categorically denying Rita would be a category 5 in the GOM because of Katrina, but we all know how that turned out. I just try to stay away from those prediciitons now

[kevin]

where did I mention anything about track?

Structural dynamics have nothing to do with the track. This will resemble the typical Atlantic hurricane, not a WPAC typhoon like Katrina and Rita did

Sorry but a hurricane is a hurricane the only difference is some are stronger and larger than others.

Oh really? Thats kind of dogmatic and well, wrong.

[truballer#1]

[StormFury]

Hey trueballer, what model did you post? and how old is it? thanks in advance.

[leonardo]

One difference is that I do not believe we will see cyclonic flow all the way up to about 175mb, like we saw with Rita and Katrina. This is likely to be more of an Atlantic hurricane

this would explain the lack of correspondence between the surface winds and the pressures at landfall with Rita and Katrina, correct? for example, Rita's pressure of around 930 mbs with winds of 120 mph (estimated).

which was more common of the WPac storms with Rita and Katrina, as you noted. Understood perfectly.

[curtadams]

The center just took in a big wedge of dry air - you can see it go in on the visible loop. Predictably, convection is weaking dramatically around the center. So I don't expect it to strengthen for a while and I expect it will keep drifting S towards the convection another 12 hours at least.

[Derek Ortt]

this is the worst looking T3.5/3.5 storm I have seen. How was that number arrived at, I will never know

[Recurve]

Yay, it's over us. Now I can ignore GFS at 144hrs.

It's far out, steering isn't there. Lots of things still to happen. Strong sheer last I saw to the north, might not weaken a lot. Drifting SW motion, convection actually edging over land. Starting to look like the NE convection and outflow wants to set up under a high, take over or detach. Who knows. It's a different setup than August for sure.