94L Invest Comments Thread #2

[TS Zack]

When you have persistance like this for a couple days now then you begin to worry. If this continues we could have some troubles in the near future.

The remnants of 93L could be what spawns something in the Western Gulf.

[Sanibel]

Edited: Think I jumped the gun on a vortex.

[Air Force Met]

LATEST FROM JB:

[i]-He thinks this has a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall (similar to Allison or Dean).

**LOOKS INTERESTING FOR SURE!!!**

JB did not say this has a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall. Quoting JB he said " fear is with outflow established now and the mischief one can get near the Texas coast, that a system can develop and have tropical storm force winds to the east of a center that is open to the west. In some respects, the genesis of such an event would resemble most closely an Allison or Dean, the latter being a 1995 storm on the upper Texas coast' end of quote..

Just want to make it clear on what JB is saying about this system.


Robert

Thanks for clearing that up. One of the reasons JB gets a bad rap sometimes is people put words in his mouth...like this time. He in NO WAY said it had a decent chance of becoming a TS before landfall...and EWG...I think that is your way of reading what he said because you are wanting that to happen.

Remember...this is kinda like winter forecasting last year when you are having a tendency to only look for the upsides to development of snow. YOu also have to look for why it won't happen. Please don't say JB is saying something he is not.

Thanks.

[KatDaddy]

Well said AFM. Radar show some heavy rain on your doorstep. I am hoping to my fajitas grilled before it works it way up here to League City

I noticed you located in Pearland......I thought you were in Angleton?

[Air Force Met]

that would equal a "decent chance". I am trying to give what he is saying in a shorter space and w.o. directly quoting everything. His overall post this morning showed that it seems this system has a decent chance to him.

BTW, my definition of decent chance is 25% or better.

No...that would not equal a decent chance. A decent chance means a decent chance.

Let me explain this in terms that are simpler: When a Pro-Met says something has a decent chance...that is what they mean. If they think that a system has a decent chance...then they will say it. If they don't say those words...then don't say they did because someone else will come along and say"well JB said the western GOM system had a decent chance to be a TS and he was wrong again..." when he said nothing of the sort...you were just adding your spin to it.

Please don't do it. Paraphrasing is fine...adding to it based on what your criteria is is NOT...in my opinion.

[NFLnut]

Well said AFM. Radar show some heavy rain on your doorstep. I am hoping to my fajitas grilled before it works it way up here to League City

I noticed you located in Pearland......I thought you were in Angleton?

**OFF TOPIC**

How does a genuine Texan grill fajitas?! I've always cooked them on a skillet, but I would LOVE a grilled fajitas recipe for the BBQ since I have a brand new Kamado ceramic grill and haven't had a functioning grill for a coupla years!

[Extremeweatherguy]

well if no one likes my posting JB's thoughts then may be I will just stop doing so. Basically, his tone and post suggested a decent shot (25%+ is what I consider decent) of something developing. He also went on to mention 35mph gusts being reported, and a possible Allison or Dean like scenario and the GFS showing deepening. To me, this all went on to say that he is thinking there is a decent shot at development. REMEMBER: decent does not mean definite.

What I am trying to do is condense JB's long posts into brief summarized accounts, and I think by saying he thinks the system has a "decent" shot is within the range of what is acceptable. If you want his EXACT words (un-summarized), then please feel free to become a member of Accuweather.com professional and interpret his posts for yourself.

[KatDaddy]

I simply buy the pre-marinated fajitas and throw them on the grill. Simple, quick and good. I am sure the are many different reciepes for marinating fajitas. Having a grill is awesome. I love it

[KatDaddy]

Your posting of JB's info is appreciated. AFM is trying to make sure Joe does not get beat up out here at Storm2k. I understand exactly what he is saying. There are many posters who will pick apart anything Joe B says and use it to prove he is wrong.

[hurrican19]

Very well said AFM.

[teal61]

Here ya go EWG...the plot thickens

NOUS42 KNHC 021700 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1300 AM EDT SUN 02 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 03/1500Z C. 04/0300Z
D. 26.0N 96.0W D. 28.5N 96.0W
E. 03/1700Z TO 2300Z E. 04/0530Z TO 1230Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
ECD

[Air Force Met]

well if no one likes my posting JB's thoughts then may be I will just stop doing so. Basically, his tone and post suggested a decent shot (25%+ is what I consider decent) of something developing. He also went on to mention 35mph gusts being reported, and a possible Allison or Dean like scenario and the GFS showing deepening. To me, this all went on to say that he is thinking there is a decent shot at development. REMEMBER: decent does not mean definite.

What I am trying to do is condense JB's long posts into brief summarized accounts, and I think by saying he thinks the system has a "decent" shot is within the range of what is acceptable. If you want his EXACT words (un-summarized), then please feel free to become a member of Accuweather.com professional and interpret his posts for yourself.

I am a member...that is why I know that he didn't say that. He said that with the mischief you can get along the Texas coast you can get a system that is open to the west but still have TS winds to the east....and that is his fear. Having a fear does not mean a decent shot....its just a fear....or in JB termonology...something that has him interested because of things that have happened in the past.

I am not saying don't summerize...but what I am saying is don't put words in his mouth. You could just as easily said JB has a fear of this thing turning into a TS Dean-like system...open on the west and TS force winds on the east...and that would have been a 100% accurate statement.

Maybe it doesn't mean much to amatuers...but to Pro-Mets...the term "decent chance" is a term we use when making forecasts...and when we use that term...or terms like it (not the term fear...etc)...we are basically sticking our neck out and saying "I think it will..."

Hope that helps.

[Air Force Met]

Your posting of JB's info is appreciated. AFM is trying to make sure Joe does not get beat up out here at Storm2k. I understand exactly what he is saying. There are many posters who will pick apart anything Joe B says and use it to prove he is wrong.

And that is what I am saying. It has happened on here NUMEROUS times. JB said this...JB said that...when if you look at what he really said...no...he didn't say this or that....it was someone's paraphrase that they remembered or just their bad memory to begin with.

It's kinda like the comment the other day by someone who said some of the pro-mets on this board were calling for Alberto to dissipate...which it didn't so they will stick with the NHC...when they too were thinking there was an increasing likelyhood of the LLC detaching and moving west and dissipating over the BOC.

We have to remember what we heard and read accurately or people get a bad rap...and we have to quote or paraphrase people accurately...or they get a bad rap.

Thanks KD.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok AFM, I guess you are right. I will try to be more careful in my choice of words when summarizing JB's posts from now on. I can see how it might be annoying to a pro met.

[SouthFloridawx]

It is in my opinion that the Job that a Pro-Met is one that is thankless. They could get the forecast right thousands of times and the one time the weather does not coorperate and something bad happens it washes away all those good things they have done in the past... IMO. Thier job is a very hard one and thier opinion should be respected. No one can really forecast the exact happenings of situations but, I think for the most part they have a good handle on most situations.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here ya go EWG...the plot thickens

NOUS42 KNHC 021700 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1300 AM EDT SUN 02 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 03/1500Z C. 04/0300Z
D. 26.0N 96.0W D. 28.5N 96.0W
E. 03/1700Z TO 2300Z E. 04/0530Z TO 1230Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INLAND.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
ECD

VERY interesting...

[Stratosphere747]

Kinda of surprising recon info though.

Seems as if whatever is out there will be inland by later this evening or Monday morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like the circulation is east of Brownsville and heading northward:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Air Force Met]

Ok AFM, I guess you are right. I will try to be more careful in my choice of words when summarizing JB's posts from now on. I can see how it might be annoying to a pro met.

Thanks...and it is. You have NO idea how many times I have heard over my career..." Hey...I thought you said it was gonna rain yeasterday?"..."No...I said there was a chance of rain." or...my personal favorite..."Hey...is it about to rain?" ...asked when I am out and about at dinner and away from my computer and any technology to answer that question. To which, I usually answer (very sarcastically)..."I don't know...let my consult my built in weather radar located inside my skull...(looks up at ceiling)...nope...you'll be fine."

[Air Force Met]

Kinda of surprising recon info though.

Seems as if whatever is out there will be inland by later this evening or Monday morning.

That's what I'm thinking. This will be in late tonight. Don't think it has a tomorrow.