96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

Nimbus · #242 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:33 am

Lots of dry air just to the north of 96 and climo would suggest that there will be some shear ahead. Wouldn't it be nice if this turned out to be a slow year and we did not get any more development till August?

#243 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:34 am

I'm very impressed on how it's maintained itself overnight...actually continued to get a little better organized. Circulation is a little more evident. I'm with NDG. The shear that's ahead of the system will not be enough to break it apart...not the structure. It may rip the T-Storms apart, but not the overall wave structure. Also with the anti-cyclonic flow that's moving with the wave, that may be enough to weaken the shear down the road. We all know shear changes daily so by the time it gets a few more hundred miles to the west, the environment may change.

It's been winning so far. Can it stay ahead of the game? To me it just looks like it'll be player down the road. If it holds its own, it'll get into the Carribean and potentially the gulf.

#244 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:47 am

skysummit wrote:I'm very impressed on how it's maintained itself overnight...actually continued to get a little better organized. Circulation is a little more evident. I'm with NDG. The shear that's ahead of the system will not be enough to break it apart...not the structure. It may rip the T-Storms apart, but not the overall wave structure. Also with the anti-cyclonic flow that's moving with the wave, that may be enough to weaken the shear down the road. We all know shear changes daily so by the time it gets a few more hundred miles to the west, the environment may change.

It's been winning so far. Can it stay ahead of the game? To me it just looks like it'll be player down the road. If it holds its own, it'll get into the Carribean and potentially the gulf.

Agree with you on your brief discussion.It has held well during the past 12 hours after being anemic on a good portion of sunday.

Ivanhater,it passed another day.

Another step foward.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #245 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:47 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
WELL DEFINED 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THIS
LOW/WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SLOW ANY TROPICAL FORMATION WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

canegrl04 · #246 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:14 am

The wave looks good this morning.Lets see if it can stay intacked through the less favorable enviro

#247 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:16 am

10/1145 UTC 10.7N 43.7W TOO WEAK 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

cheezyWXguy · #248 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:26 am

it looks MUCH better now, also just by looking at it, theyre appear to be 2 circulations...wow

rockyman · #249 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:34 am

The shear to the west appears to have lifted slightly to the north this morning...if this trend continues (and the anticylcone over the system might be helping), there could be a pathway of lower shear values south of 15N all the way into the Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Hyperstorm · #250 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:39 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

*edited by staff to include disclaimer - please add it from now on

The well-defined tropical wave several hundred miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles has developed a better structure overnight. The convection has diminished during the past few hours, but there is now a noticeable mid-level circulation center.

Upper-level winds where the system is now are favorable for additional development. Just west of the system, the environment is quite hostile. However, the GFS has been hinting for the past day or so (giving more credence to it) of a more well-defined upper-level anticyclone to grow just east of the islands today. Already, you can see the upper-level stream from the west starting to veer to the north just ahead of the system. Signs of the upper-level high starting to define itself?

Something that I noted yesterday and I find rather interesting is that the system needs to stay at a southern latitude (south of 15-16N) in order for it to remain under the favorable upper pattern if that high gains definition. However, if it stays too close to the moisture associated with the ITCZ, developmental process will be very slow. If it's going to develop any further, it has to do so just north of the ITCZ as it can use this monsoonal moisture for energy.

This tropical low is rather compact and that means that its fragile nature will suffer greatly from any entrainment of dry air into the core. So far, the system has been fighting the battle, but that is because of the closeness to the ITCZ. If it takes a route near 15N, there is no chance. The system has moved WNW for the past 24-36 hours and just started to accelerate.

Today won't be a big day for it and I doubt we see a well-defined LLC before the sun sets. However, tonight will be interesting with the usual nocturnal maxima. If we see a burst of convection like we saw late last night again and the MLC is still well-defined we will decidedly see it close off at the surface.

It's a waiting game as always...

rockyman · #251 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:50 am

Not sure if this is significant...but that pocket of high shear east of the Islands is being "cut off" from the rest of the high shear rates over the Caribbean...almost like it's being squeezed off and surrounded by less shear.

Now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

12 hours ago:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-4.html

Thunder44 · #252 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:56 am

If you look to the high clouds to the west, you can see some NW shear starting to impinge on the system. I've noticed the convection has diminshed somewhat this morning, perhaps to do this and dirnual effects.

#253 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:58 am

Nice discussion Hyperstorm, but you might want to add a disclaimer to it. It almost sounds official.
This WV loop helps describe Hyperstorms discussion, check the Lat/Long and HDW high boxes.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

#254 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:00 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060710 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060710 1200 060711 0000 060711 1200 060712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 45.5W 11.6N 47.7W 12.0N 49.8W 12.3N 51.9W
BAMM 10.9N 45.5W 11.9N 48.1W 12.6N 50.6W 13.2N 53.1W
A98E 10.9N 45.5W 11.9N 48.4W 12.8N 51.2W 13.7N 53.9W
LBAR 10.9N 45.5W 11.9N 48.4W 12.9N 51.4W 13.8N 54.4W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060712 1200 060713 1200 060714 1200 060715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 54.0W 13.0N 58.1W 14.2N 62.2W 16.0N 65.9W
BAMM 13.9N 55.7W 15.0N 60.7W 16.7N 66.0W 18.7N 71.1W
A98E 14.5N 56.2W 16.6N 60.2W 18.5N 63.6W 20.8N 66.4W
LBAR 14.4N 57.4W 15.7N 62.9W 17.5N 67.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 28KTS 30KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 28KTS 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 45.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 42.5W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 40.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 12:00z set of BAM models.Models are not important as we dont have a well organized LLC but anyway I post them for information to the members.

#255 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:15 am

This Quik scat is a little old but the last pass missed it.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... _0_-50.gif
Certainly nothing to get excited about there.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #256 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:28 am

1200Z Models with 1215Z Visible Satellite

#257 Postby **windycity** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:31 am

nice post, Hyperstorm. I dont have anything to add, except to mention i beleive SSTs in the present area are maginal, but overall conditions will improve once the invest stays on its present course. The question is if it can beat the battle against sal and sheer.Time will tell.

#258 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:37 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahooo!!! Beryl Beryl Beryl!!!

Matt I hope you're ready to jump on a plane and come down here and help me out if you get your wish! There will be no getting in cars and driving away....

caribepr · #259 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:55 am

bvigal wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wahooo!!! Beryl Beryl Beryl!!!

Matt I hope you're ready to jump on a plane and come down here and help me out if you get your wish! There will be no getting in cars and driving away....

If planes can even get in...or ferries...

#260 Postby **mvtrucking** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:56 am

tailgater wrote:This Quik scat is a little old but the last pass missed it.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... _0_-50.gif
Certainly nothing to get excited about there.

Here is a 8:12 am pass(The ascending wasn't picked up well but the descending was fine)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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