INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

[wxman57]

TD #3 is gonna be coming with the buoy and Barbados ob..

Barbados is over 210 nautical miles away from this disturbance, so the wind there is not likely part of any LLC. And such light winds there could well be the result of local land/sea breeze effects. The buoy does indicate a weak LLC, but another general requirement for an upgrade is convection over a well-defined center. That doesn't exist.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we have TD#3, it sure did organize today and looks as if convection is closing in on wrapping the apparent LLC.

[Air Force Met]

AFM i read your post. I'm just giving you a hard time .

I know...and I was just returning the favor...hence the

I think you need to shave your head and post a pic.

I think you know what you can do...

Go eat dinner?

Nope...that's what I'm about to do.

[cycloneye]

Just in:

The goverment of Puerto Rico is preparing for anything that the system may bring to Puerto Rico.The emergency management agency is making preparations around the island in conjunction with 54 goverment agencies.

The above was just announced by the emergency management agency director in Puerto Rico Nazario Lugo.

I think is a good measure that the goverment here is doing even if it not develop into a depression or storm.

[HurricaneHunter914]

TD #3 is gonna be coming with the buoy and Barbados ob..

Barbados is over 210 nautical miles away from this disturbance, so the wind there is not likely part of any LLC. And such light winds there could well be the result of local land/sea breeze effects. The buoy does indicate a weak LLC, but another general requirement for an upgrade is convection over a well-defined center. That doesn't exist.

The convection exist, but the well defined center doesn't. And just a question for you wxman57, are you saying this still has a long way to go for it to become a TC?

[WeatherEmperor]

Just in:

The goverment of Puerto Rico is preparing for anything that the system may bring to Puerto Rico.The emergency management agency is making preparations around the island in conjunction with 54 goverment agencies.

The above was just announced by the emergency management agency director in Puerto Rico Nazario Lugo.

I think is a good measure that the goverment here is doing even if it not develop into a depression or storm.

I like their preparedness attitude. Better be safe then sorry.

<RICKY>

[wxman57]

I think we have TD#3, it sure did organize today and looks as if convection is closing in on wrapping the apparent LLC.

Careful with that satellite interpretation of convection "wrapping the apparent LLC". See the image below. The weak LLC is northwest of all convection. And take a look at that dashed yellow line. On the last image it LOOKS like we may be seeing the beginning of a large outflow boundary propagating NW across the LLC, an indication of collapsing convection southeast of the LLC. It's too early to be 100% sure of that, though. I'll have another image in 10 minutes. We'll see if there is a separation between the apparent boundary and the clouds to the southeast or not.

[HUC]

Here in Guadeloupe,we are prepering for what we call a 'yellow watch" for heavy rains possible;at the present in Basse-Terre the SO tip of the island(leeward side) fine,winds calm or ENE to NE light.
Seems that this system could bring a lot of rain...
We will see...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Careful with that satellite interpretation of convection "wrapping the apparent LLC". See the image below. The weak LLC is northwest of all convection. And take a look at that dashed yellow line. On the last image it LOOKS like we may be seeing the beginning of a large outflow boundary propagating NW across the LLC, an indication of collapsing convection southeast of the LLC. It's too early to be 100% sure of that, though.

But all it needs is one small increase in organization and the NHC will upgrade this to a TD#3 (according to the TWO).

[Weatherfreak000]

I think we have TD#3, it sure did organize today and looks as if convection is closing in on wrapping the apparent LLC.

Careful with that satellite interpretation of convection "wrapping the apparent LLC". See the image below. The weak LLC is northwest of all convection. And take a look at that dashed yellow line. On the last image it LOOKS like we may be seeing the beginning of a large outflow boundary propagating NW across the LLC, an indication of collapsing convection southeast of the LLC. It's too early to be 100% sure of that, though. I'll have another image in 10 minutes. We'll see if there is a separation between the apparent boundary and the clouds to the southeast or not.

I still don't get it. The system has for the entire day been improving in organization and even your graphic is misleading. I see what appears to be a center perhaps not completely over the convection but it's still partially under it.

And that coupled with the fact it IS a closed off circulation should warrant Tropical Depression status.

[f5]

The little TD 10 that could but everyone wrote off

[cheezyWXguy]

Are yall sure its not relocating?

[HurricaneHunter914]

This has been said alot on this forum, 2005 was not a normal year. There is no use comparing this year to 2005 because it was an active season that comes ever several years or so.

[curtadams]

TD #3 is gonna be coming with the buoy and Barbados ob..

Barbados is over 210 nautical miles away from this disturbance, so the wind there is not likely part of any LLC. And such light winds there could well be the result of local land/sea breeze effects. The buoy does indicate a weak LLC, but another general requirement for an upgrade is convection over a well-defined center. That doesn't exist.

Barbados is far for the circ - but the system's low level intake is very strong to the south. Look at the low clouds zipping N from south of the disturbance on shortwave Looks like the intake over Barbados is indeed going from roughly WSW.

Also, since when is convection over the center a requirement? It's not part of the formal definition and it didn't stop them with Alberto or several other sheared storms.

[benny]

TD #3 is gonna be coming with the buoy and Barbados ob..

Barbados is over 210 nautical miles away from this disturbance, so the wind there is not likely part of any LLC. And such light winds there could well be the result of local land/sea breeze effects. The buoy does indicate a weak LLC, but another general requirement for an upgrade is convection over a well-defined center. That doesn't exist.

It just shows the largeness of the surface circulation... the whole area is spinning.. not just the smaller stuff under the convection. I don't know about the future but now it is pretty darn close to meeting the definition of tropical depression

[southerngale]

This has been said alot on this forum, 2005 was not a normal year. There is no use comparing this year to 2005 because it was an active season that comes ever several years or so.

Every several years or so? I'm not aware of any season in recorded history that even comes close to the activity of 2005.

[Dynamic]

One question please...

LLC means

Low Level Convergence?
or
Low Level Circulation?

Thanks in advance, and sorry to post this in this topic, but a lot of you guys use that and I want to know their correct mean.

[southerngale]

One question please...

LLC means

Low Level Convergence?
or
Low Level Circulation?

Thanks in advance, and sorry to post this in this topic, but a lot of you guys use that and I want to know their correct mean.

LLC = Low Level Circulation

[wxman57]

Here's a new satellite image with the weak LLC indicated by the red "L". Note that there appears to be a separation developing along the western and northern edge of the convection, indicative of a possible outflow boundary developing. Such boundaries develop as the convection collapses - a sign of weakening. Still not 100% sure this is happening, but there IS greater separation between this boundary now. If it turns out to actually be a large outflow boundary, then we should see some significant structural changes in the next 6-12 hours. By that, I mean the LLC could dissipate as it did 2 nights ago when I noted the northward moving boundary through the MLC. Such a dissipation COULD be followed by the development of an LLC elsewhere, or it could be followed by degeneration to a wave with minimal convection. Only time will tell.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So you think this has little chance at development?