TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Trugunzn · #241 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:10 am

most likly it will

#242 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:10 am

KWT wrote:The question you've got to ask yourslef is that if this was in the gulf or just to the eas tof the USA would it be upgraded, the answer would probably be yes I dare say!
Mind you I think the NHc will wait till we have got proof that we've got a closed LLC and thats not been confirmed yet.

Remember that satellite can be very deceiving when trying to discern an LLC. Remember when 91L (I believe) developed that dramatic circulation east of the Caribbean a week or so ago? The plane went in and found nothing at the surface. The circulation was aloft.

When you look at a satetllite, you're looking at cloud tops that may be 10 miles above the surface. Only in the absence of thunderstorms can you really see cloud movements near the surface.

That said, I do see evidence of banding quite clearly. Is it at the surface? Maybe. I have a few surface obs in the area but none on the west or southwest side to close off an LLC. Very recent images indicate excellent outflow and even better banding. I think it could well have an LLC.

Question is, can it hold together for another day? If so, then the NHC may classify it as TD 4 or even Debby. One note - QuikSCAT data are unavailable currently due to a flooding problem somewhere. So the NHC may not upgrade it without at least something confirming an LLC.

Website · #243 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:11 am

beachbum_al wrote:
storms in NC wrote:Debby's are nice and will go fishing. I know this cause I am a debbie and I love to go fishing

So we might have Debby by the middle of this week? Okay. So where are the computer models showing this wave/depression going right now?

Model plot

*edited by staff to make the model image clickable - was so large, you had to scroll across to read each line on the page

Weatherfreak14 · #244 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:11 am

Computer models tend this thing to have a westward movment. Well a NW movement.

#245 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:12 am

57 or maybe there is a ship in the area that can report winds of TD or Tropical Storm strengh.

#246 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:14 am

If the model data sets are unreliable when there is no clear LLC, is ther a point to running them this early? How much actual (reliable) data can be gained from them except for research/improvement purposes?

#247 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:15 am

pretty big shift west in that last model run....

ThunderMate · #248 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:16 am

where are they posted?

ThunderMate · #249 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:18 am

That doesn't look west to me??

#250 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:18 am

gatorcane wrote:I wonder if the NHC will mention the huge blanket of SAL that this wave is about ready to slam into in the TWO?

The SAL moves on the same trades as the storms. I do not see how it slams into anything moving at the same speed and direction. Once the storm gets stacked and begins to be steered more by upper air, SAL might be a point except the storm would then have sufficient storms to circle the center and probably not allow much in, hard to say at that point.

#251 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:19 am

ThunderMate wrote:That doesn't look west to me??

they have shifted west and bent slightly more to the west at the end of the run and do not show a recurve yet so I am still nervous.

beachbum_al · #252 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:19 am

Thanks! Looks like if this one becomes Debby she will be a fish and not affect anyone except maybe the mariners. Sounds good to me.

#253 Postby **EDR1222** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:21 am

Looks like with the latest update at 11:30, they are advising the Cape Verde Islands to keep a close watch. Maybe they are thinking it will take a more Northwesterly course. It does look like the break in the ridge is a pretty good one right now which would most likely mean it would turn out to sea fairly quickly if things stay the same and it develops.

I guess we will just have to wait and see.

ThunderMate · #254 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:21 am

I see what your saying gator, but its a little north there to turn back west.

Weatherfreak14 · #255 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:23 am

beachbum_al wrote:Thanks! Looks like if this one becomes Debby she will be a fish and not affect anyone except maybe the mariners. Sounds good to me.

Well that shift to the west in the models is a worry for me. If it continues to do that it will have it on the NC coast.

Canal watcher · #256 Postby **Canal watcher** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:24 am

caribepr wrote:Fish sounds excellent to me as well. Go North! Fall apart! Sorry Matt!

I agree! Lets make those Ins Companies RETHINK!

Thunder44 · #257 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:25 am

Right now this system doesn't appear to be developing any further. Recent visible images show convection decreasing on the north side and the center has become exposed under the cirrus clouds.

Weatherfreak14 · #258 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:26 am

Looks organized to me

ThunderMate · #259 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:27 am

well, that would mean a more westerly track if it stays weak....

#260 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:28 am

Thunder44 wrote:Right now this system doesn't appear to be developing any further. Recent visible images show convection decreasing on the north side and the center has become exposed under the cirrus clouds.

Agree about that.The center is seen now more than earlier as it's exposed.Some would right away say storm cancel

But still looks pretty good.

TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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