Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

NONAME · #241 Postby **NONAME** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:26 am

Looks like convection is starting to get over the northern part of the COC. Yes the acording to the the TWO it has a Surface Circulation just not well defined.

mike815 · #242 Postby **mike815** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:27 am

right it needs to become more defined thats all

Derek Ortt · #243 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:28 am

ah Earl when all indictaions were for a major hurricane in the GOM just a few days after Charley

then it just went bye bye just as quickly as it formed

#244 Postby **seaswing** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:28 am

I don't know about ya'll but we could use a good soaking here. We are 9" below normal rainfall totals this summer. A good TD, slow moving would be great.... a TS maybe, if it's more tian than wind.

#245 Postby **curtadams** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:29 am

If you saw it late last night - around 2AM EDT - it really looked like a cyclone, probably a TS. I mean reallyreallyreally looked like a storm. I expect them to find something, although it looks like they'll just find a remnant right now. I am not in the least surprised that they wanted to investigate this.

#246 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:29 am

LAwxrgal wrote:Mike815, IMO it's highly likely they will find a depression...I don't see a TS coming out of this yet. The forming LLC is exposed.

I took a pic posted on a previous page and drew (albeit an awful drawing) of where I THINK the LLC is, and it's a good ways west of most of the convection. Shear is possibly to blame here, as well as possibly the continued fast forward motion of the wave.

IS this the center now?

#247 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:31 am

there is no center - the NHC latest TWO says this.

Website · #248 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:34 am

If it's not the center, it's where one will form. It sure looks like one... and with west winds reported south of there, I think it is a center.

#249 Postby **AJC3** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:39 am

bvigal wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:Mike815, IMO it's highly likely they will find a depression...I don't see a TS coming out of this yet. The forming LLC is exposed.

I took a pic posted on a previous page and drew (albeit an awful drawing) of where I THINK the LLC is, and it's a good ways west of most of the convection. Shear is possibly to blame here, as well as possibly the continued fast forward motion of the wave.
IS this the center now?

Yes, at least if you're talking about the vorticity (spin) center. I doubt that there's a closed ground-relative surface wind center though. System is just moving too darn fast.

#250 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:40 am

bvigal wrote:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v317/ ... -drawn.jpg

I took a pic posted on a previous page and drew (albeit an awful drawing) of where I THINK the LLC is, and it's a good ways west of most of the convection. Shear is possibly to blame here, as well as possibly the continued fast forward motion of the wave.

IS this the center now?[/quote]

That was a low-level "center". More of an eddy, a weak low-level swirl. Seems to be dissipating now. I have it at 12.7N/61.6W as of 20 min. ago. But it is whre to look for convection to develop.

NONAME · #251 Postby **NONAME** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:44 am

On the AVN loop it looks to be reoganizing it self to try and become a TD for recon.

#252 Postby **AJC3** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:44 am

wxman57 wrote:
bvigal wrote:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v317/ ... -drawn.jpg

I took a pic posted on a previous page and drew (albeit an awful drawing) of where I THINK the LLC is, and it's a good ways west of most of the convection. Shear is possibly to blame here, as well as possibly the continued fast forward motion of the wave.

IS this the center now?

That was a low-level "center". More of an eddy, a weak low-level swirl. Seems to be dissipating now. I have it at 12.7N/61.6W as of 20 min. ago. But it is whre to look for convection to develop.

Seems to have passed right over the Grenadines...shooting the gap between Grenada and St Vincent.

#253 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:46 am

Derek Ortt wrote:ah Earl when all indictaions were for a major hurricane in the GOM just a few days after Charley

then it just went bye bye just as quickly as it formed

IIRC, Earl became a hurricane eventually, albeit with a few alterations to the remnants. It's name was Frank and it was in the EPAC.

#254 Postby **abajan** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:47 am

bvigal,
I last visited Trinidad way back in 1980. Sorry, I can't remember anything about the terrain near Piarco Airport. Perhaps Crown can be of more help.

Btw, about 10 minutes ago a large, ugly grey plane with T-type wings (in other words, the fusalage was below the wings as opposed to how normal airliners are configured) and an oversized tail (LOL, sorry for this awful description) passed to my south, heading east towards our airport to land. I'm assuming it is one of those recon aircraft. I've seen it before and it usually comes around these parts when storms are in the vacinity. That's why I assumed it was one of them. (I'm more familiar with the C-130.)

Also, the rain sounds like it want to get heavy again.

#255 Postby **bvigal** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:48 am

Thanks, everybody!!! So, technically system has entered the Caribbean. It will be interesting to see what recon finds.
Plenty of warm water...
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/col ... _ophi0.gif

Hey Bajan! Just saw your post after posting this, so edit to answer you. I've landed at almost every airport in EC except Trinidad. Just don't know a thing about it.

That's cool you've spotted the recon plane!!!

willjnewton · #256 Postby **willjnewton** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:52 am

update, looking at the satelite imagery, I was completely wrong yesterday when I said 97L was Not going to develop..because actually I call this system Ernesto now becuase the convection is really Refireing rapidly if you look at the satelite imagery.. :ggreen:

#257 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:56 am

abajan wrote:bvigal,
I last visited Trinidad way back in 1980. Sorry, I can't remember anything about the terrain near Piarco Airport. Perhaps Crown can be of more help.

Btw, about 10 minutes ago a large, ugly grey plane with T-type wings (in other words, the fusalage was below the wings as opposed to how normal airliners are configured) and an oversized tail (LOL, sorry for this awful description) passed to my south, heading east towards our airport to land. I'm assuming it is one of those recon aircraft. I've seen it before and it usually comes around these parts when storms are in the vacinity. That's why I assumed it was one of them. (I'm more familiar with the C-130.)

Also, the rain sounds like it want to get heavy again.

the C-130 isnt ugly...at least IMHO, but then again I see it fly over everyday... :lol:

here is a AF C-130 pic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Usaf.c130.750pix.jpg
Then NOAA flys a P-3: http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/images/lockheed6.gif
I assume you saw a C-130, which maybe one of the Recon aircraft...did you get to see the tail numbers? if it was Recon it would look like this:
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/phfly1.jpg
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/jtail.jpg
Notice on the tail it says WEATHER
EDIT: I dont know how close you were to it...here you can literally read what is written under the wings of our C-130's, so what country and squadron its from is normally known provided it flys close enough!!!

#258 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:57 am

I've come to the conclusion that Will is 24 hours behind in his access to satellite imagery.

willjnewton · #259 Postby **willjnewton** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 10:58 am

no I am not 24hours behind on satelite imagery?why do you think that?? :oops:

#260 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:00 am

Oh, that was funny.

Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

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