Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Dean4Storms]

I believe an ULL is expected in the western Gulf come next week, it might be a factor with intensity.

[Trugunzn]

Convection fired up over center so now its not a naked swirl any more. Also now im starting to see convection wrapping around and tighting and the storm looks like its starting to swirl as a whole.






go threw dis loop and see its about to start spining
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rb.html

[PTrackerLA]

The convection appears to be wrapping around better now but it could also just be the MLC since I think the LLC is a little further WNW. If it's truly stacked then I agree that it's becoming better organized.

[Normandy]

^ It looks to me like the MLC and the LLC are displaced, because that swirl You see isnt where the LLC is.

[Yankeegirl]

I wasnt saying anything about the intensity of the storm, just the possible location of where it might be in a few days...

[skysummit]

The convection appears to be wrapping around better now but it could also just be the MLC since I think the LLC is a little further WNW. If it's truly stacked then I agree that it's becoming better organized.

I agree. The MLC and LLC do not looked stacked. The swirl we're seeing with the convection looks to be the MLC.

[Aquawind]

^ It looks to me like the MLC and the LLC are displaced, because that swirl You see isnt where the LLC is.

Yep.. We do have convection near the LLC but will it persist or will the blanket get riped off again..

[LAwxrgal]

^ It looks to me like the MLC and the LLC are displaced, because that swirl You see isnt where the LLC is.

Yep.. We do have convection near the LLC but will it persist or will the blanket get riped off again..

Is the shear causing these stacking issues?

[Aquawind]

The convection appears to be wrapping around better now but it could also just be the MLC since I think the LLC is a little further WNW. If it's truly stacked then I agree that it's becoming better organized.

I agree. The MLC and LLC do not looked stacked. The swirl we're seeing with the convection looks to be the MLC.

Ditto.. LLC is still out ahead but not entirely naked ATM.

[Air Force Met]

Hi Scott...

HPC used the 18Z initialization point from ATCF...which was made before recon fixed the center further north than the sat fixes...so the 21Z 3 hour forecast position appeared to jump when really it was just a relocation of the center.

Right now...if I had to pick a track...I would go with HPC...looks like 5 has slowed some today.

MW

I give the HPC tracks a lot of weight. They look at models all year long and are really in tune with the synoptics and who's being naughty and who's being nice.

BTW...that's what happened...they didn't have the initial point to work with when they came up with the 1st point...they had to guess because they didn't have a lot of notice.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 242340
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 05L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 62.6 280./19.0
6 12.4 63.5 288./ 9.3
12 12.4 64.7 271./11.3
18 13.0 66.0 295./13.8
24 13.6 67.0 300./11.3
30 13.9 67.9 290./10.0
36 14.4 69.1 292./12.3
42 15.1 70.3 300./13.3
48 15.6 71.3 297./10.6
54 16.3 72.1 310./10.5
60 17.3 73.1 317./13.8
66 18.5 74.3 314./17.0
72 19.5 75.7 306./15.9
78 20.4 76.9 304./15.0
84 21.0 78.4 295./15.4
90 21.7 79.8 296./14.3
96 22.4 81.1 299./14.0
102 22.9 82.1 296./11.1
108 23.8 83.2 308./13.4
114 24.5 84.4 299./12.8
120 24.9 85.4 293./ 9.3
126 25.7 85.9 324./ 9.3


18z GFDL tracks more north than past 12z run.

[Downdraft]

This storm can't be official I haven't heard a "holy crap" yet from a certain someone. As for the GEM seems reasonable to me at the moment.

[wxman57]

I think it's time to go fill up my 5-gal gas cans. Don't want to get caught in the last-minute rush and have stations running out because people are panicing. I can always use the gas in my car. I am concerned that in most cases, early tracks into the Gulf are almost always too far to the left. A study by Lance Wood at the Houston/Galveston NWS office indicated that 74% of the time over the past 10 years the track error was too far left on Gulf storms. So if the initial track is off (toward northern MX or south TX), it's more likely to hit farther up the coast.

[Aquawind]

^ It looks to me like the MLC and the LLC are displaced, because that swirl You see isnt where the LLC is.

Yep.. We do have convection near the LLC but will it persist or will the blanket get riped off again..

Is the shear causing these stacking issues?

Seems so that and dry air.. you can clearly see it's having a hard time doing any buildup in the NW quad.. Tops are getting pushed off to the east..

[Normandy]

^ It looks to me like the MLC and the LLC are displaced, because that swirl You see isnt where the LLC is.

Yep.. We do have convection near the LLC but will it persist or will the blanket get riped off again..

I think the two are closer than most think, because that LLC we have seen has slowed....and the circulation was broad to begin with...

Interesting though about the MLC....its one of the only ones this year I have seen form without a decaying huge convective burst.

[Senobia]

oh, this sucks...
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ ... 12_144.jpg

Can someone decode these 4 images into layman's terms pertaining to Beaumont, Tx? Thanks.

[Stormcenter]

I think it's time to go fill up my 5-gal gas cans. Don't want to get caught in the last-minute rush and have stations running out because people are panicing. I can always use the gas in my car. I am concerned that in most cases, early tracks into the Gulf are almost always too far to the left. A study by Lance Wood at the Houston/Galveston NWS office indicated that 74% of the time over the past 10 years the track error was too far left on Gulf storms. So if the initial track is off (toward northern MX or south TX), it's more likely to hit farther up the coast.

That is NOT what I want to hear. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping the shear or something get's TD5 before it gets anywhere near the GOM.

[Normandy]

^ It looks to me like the MLC and the LLC are displaced, because that swirl You see isnt where the LLC is.

Yep.. We do have convection near the LLC but will it persist or will the blanket get riped off again..

Is the shear causing these stacking issues?

Seems so that and dry air.. you can clearly see it's having a hard time doing any buildup in the NW quad.. Tops are getting pushed off to the east..

I completely disagree.
I blame the unstacked centers due to poor initial organization than shear, because the IR shows no evidence of cloudtops being blown off the LLC (Especially when they werent even OVER the LLC earlier).

[Aquawind]

Agreed They are not to far apart. It's still having a hard time building convection out ahead and showing wrapping over the LLC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[JTD]

^ It looks to me like the MLC and the LLC are displaced, because that swirl You see isnt where the LLC is.

Yep.. We do have convection near the LLC but will it persist or will the blanket get riped off again..

Is the shear causing these stacking issues?

Seems so that and dry air.. you can clearly see it's having a hard time doing any buildup in the NW quad.. Tops are getting pushed off to the east..

Aquawind, are you expecting much out of TD #5 or should we see not much more strengthening from where it is now?