Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Blown Away]

Does it look like TD5 is slowing down from 20mph??

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[HURAKAN]

After looking to the loop it seems the center remains in the western edge but under the convection. Ernesto seems to be on the way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hope this was not posted. Any way cimss t has it at 2.8t and sab has it...

25/0615 UTC 13.1N 64.5W T2.5/2.5 05L

[skysummit]

I see a potential very dangerous setup that may possibly take place. Someone mentioned it to me last night and I now see what he's talking about.

Currently there's 50kts of shear ahead of TD5, however the ULL over Cuba seems to be moving westward. There's another ULL in the Atlantic that's also moving westward. With the right timing, if TD5 can slow down a bit, TD5 may get to the NW Carribean just in time to be right in the middle of these two ULLs...and what does that cause? Major outflow assistance.

Tell me what you think...

[Normandy]

Honestly as I look at vis loops, the center that the NHC shows looks very faint at best....we need recon imo.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I 100 percent agree Skysummit, this reminds me of a perfect pattern for a storm to get outflow channels from heck. If this can slow down a little more then the upper high would build strongly over it. Also even at the rate its going the tutt is moving out. In the upper high has been building by the fact that deep convection now is moving over the center.

If this builds watch for the tutt to start opening up outflow channels on both sides of the cyclone. With a strengthing Anticyclone. This could very well go the models have been forecasting the tutt to brake down.

[dizzyfish]

Starting to get some good vis shots. Looks healthy to me!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

One important thing to remember:

Chris = Early August

TD #5 = Late August

Overall, conditions are much better this time around.

[KWT]

Normandy, I don't think thats the center, that may have just been a weak little vortex running round the main one, because just looked at the loop very zoonmed in where the turning is and its simply not turning fast enough to be the center, esp in the last few frames, center to me looks further east in the convective mass somewhere.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it has a very well organized and defined LLC at around 65.2. It is under the convection in lining up with the MLC. I also think this is a 45 knot tropical storm right now.

[cycloneye]

I think it has a very well organized and defined LLC at around 65.2. It is under the convection in lining up with the MLC. I also think this is a 45 knot tropical storm right now.

Recon will tell the story about how strong the system is.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cycloneye, I agree we will wait for the recon. But when this was a naked vortax is was about 3 knows away from tropical storm strength. It had a 1.5t at that time to. Its now has convection right over it. So its not a far step to say its likely a tropical storm.

[tailgater]

I think it has a very well organized and defined LLC at around 65.2. It is under the convection in lining up with the MLC. I also think this is a 45 knot tropical storm right now.

Here's the latest Quik-scat.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... 10_-70.gif
Not looking like it has a closed low, visible sat loops should tell the real story later. I don't trust Quik-scat that much, but thought some of you might want to see it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't trust it my self, its a tool to use in nothing more to me. The visible shows a LLC with inflow moving into it. While its under the convection. The quickscats has never shown this closed. In I would expect with all the organizion it has done since the recon this most likley has a closed LLC.


Also that shows 35 to 40 knot winds.

[Aquawind]

Looks like Ernesto.. Still lopsided a bit but very impressive and persistent convection overnight near the center. I would not be surprised to have Ernesto at the next update without RECON..

[boca]

I think they'll upgrade TD 5 to a 40 or 45mph tropical storm Ernesto based upon sat info. The LLC seems to be tucked back under the dense overcast not like before when it was exposed on the west side. If this system can syat between these ULL it will have perfect ventilation.

[sevenleft]

How can you see a low level circulation on the visible if its underneath the convection?

[Blown Away]

NHC has Debbie at 17mph and TD5 at 20mph, but looking at the loop it appears to me TD5 slowed quite a bit. Compare the motion of Debbie & TD5, Debbie looks to be moving allot faster. Just an observation!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[boca]

I used the shortwave IR sat.

[Thunder44]

The QS pass this morning put the center futher SW than the NHC had it. It's near 12N and 64.5W. It also shows a rather large area of 40kt to 45kt winds NE of the center.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html