TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[wxwatcher91]

Just a historical note:
I've scanned the NHC archives (not a very thorough scan I'll admit) nevertheless, I could not find a single storm that initiated at or below 40kts and was forecasted to reach 100kts or higher by 120hrs.
I welcome all to challenge that observation since as I said, it wasnt a very thorough investigation.

Why challenge it? What bearing would it have on THIS storm???

The 5am EDT NHC forecast for Ernesto brings it to 100kts at 120hrs and it initiated at 40kts. So Ernesto is the first TS to initiate at 40kts or lower to be forecast by the NHC to reach 100kts or higher by 120hrs.

I said I welcome all to challenge that since I could have missed a storm.

[wxman57]

wxman57, how many more model cycles before NHC starts to adjust the day 4 & 5 track? The GFS, NOGAPs, ETA, and GFDL all seem to be trending toward the N-NE apparently following the weakness in the 500 mb ridge - I know once they do that the panic button will be activated along some portion of the gulf coast - but they have committed themselves to making 120 hr forecasts so I'm hopeful they make a 100% best science decision on the track.

I can imagine that the folks at NHC have pulled most of their hair out already (thought hey don't have much to start with). Eventually, maybe this afternoon, certainly by tomorrow, they'll have to make a commitment to a landfall point. They just can't keep slowiing it down on days 4-5. If so, then many people may be quite surprised when it reaches them a day ahead of the earlier NHC forecasts.

I'd hate to be in their shoes with the 1-yr anniversary of Katrina coming up and a Cat 3+ heading for the same area, possibly.

[linkerweather]

The cone and track from the NHC doesn't change with the intermediate advisory, but they will update its initial position along with the current data in the white box in the upper right corner. I mentioned this last night, the cone is NOT A FORECAST but historical error. Its size will never change from storm to storm. It is a better guage of the storm to look at the other products like the tropical storm wind probability graphic or 50 kt wind probability graphic or hurricane wind probability graphic from the NHC. As of this morning, it seems to me that the NHC's day 4 and 5 points aren't really a forecast, see yesterdays 5 pm discussion.

FWIW, i dont see much of a NE turn late but I will firmly buy a N movement after day 3-4. Looking at the trends from some of the globals with respect to the high building in across Florida. The models with respect to that pattern indicate quite a S-N oriented weakness in the GOM but differ on the E-W extent of it.
Ok back to bed...maybe

[HURAKAN]

I said I welcome all to challenge that since I could have missed a storm.

I have to agree with you. Now that this comes up I realize this could be a first time.

[miamicanes177]

On the GOES infrared the cloud tops are red on my computer. They used to be white and its not because the tops are warming. I dont know if I changed a setting or what but can someone tell me how to get them back to white? Is it red or white on your computer? http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[elarson1974]

does anyone know why the NHC no longer shows the 11pm graphic from friday nite?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/ER ... hics.shtml

[Air Force Met]

Yes it is sheared, BUT is it BADLY SHEARED? Like is it going to get whammed just like Emma said? I don't think so.

I'm no pro met and I didn't sleep at the Holiday Inn last nite, but I would say this storm is being pounded and I don't see the ULL to the west moving out as fast as predicted.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Its not being pounded. Pressures don't drop like that when you are pounded. You also don't get LLC's tucked in the convection when you are pounded.

What it is doing is moving SW ahead of Ernesto...which is slowly building a ridge over him....and it is slowly weakening. The ridge that is building is slowly becoming more N-S oriented...which is setting up the development that is coming...

and it is coming.

[Scorpion]

Wow AFM. So it looks like this is the real deal. If I was on the northern Gulf Coast I would be preparing my evac plans now.

[miamicanes177]

BAD NEWS...shear is backing off...moving west as expected...!!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[tgenius]

Now I just looked at the WV, and the system SEEMS to be a wee bit N of the forecast points, or am I not looking at the right part of the storm?

OK..first of all....NEVER use water vapor to find the low level center. Water vapor looks at the upper levels, not the lower ones.

Second, its one track now but if you take the 8am points from today...and impose them on the 11pm points from last night...it is actually south of the track by about 30 miles.

AFM, thanks for setting me straight.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

linkerweather that is the same idea I am thinking and that our local NWS office guys are saying. Thee will be a still be a ridge in the NE gulf which will not allow for such a sharp turn to the NE. I fully expect this to change more westerly with each new model run. The front is just not going to have any push left or be that strong by the time it reaches the southern states. Remember KATRINA last year. Looks how many time the major models had to shift left once she entered the gulf.

[skysummit]

The ridge that is building is slowly becoming more N-S oriented...which is setting up the development that is coming...

and it is coming.

Words like that from a pro met send chills down my spine.

[rockyman]

You're so right wxman57...NHC is showing the system passing Jamaica TOMORROW around lunch time...Based on an Ivan track/speed (which is one I remember quite well), Ernesto would be making landfall Thursday before lunchtime...

If anyone in the north central Gulf needs to make hotel reservations, I'd make it today, for arrival on Wednesday afternoon...as long as the reservation can be canceled without penalty...Once NHC makes its first landfall call, expect hotel vacancies to dry up quickly.

[Scorpion]

BAD NEWS...shear is backing off...moving west as expected...!!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

I saved all shear tendency images from the past 24 hours and the shear looks to be moving west as Ernesto is moving west. Not only that, but it looks to be weakening as well.

[jpigott]

Ok, here comes an amateur observation, so take with a grain of salt.

I think Ernesto is still having some trouble getting vertically stacked. If you look at the latest visible images there looks to be 2 circulations, with the LLC further west and the MLC under the middle of the convection.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

12:00z Models Graphic.

The NHC gives the worse possible track for us. And it I usually always agree with the NHC track. They may not be perfect, but pretty accurate. It basically shows it making a beeline for the Morgan City-Houma area. But, like I said earlier, I am nervous, but not panicking until 48 hours out. My dad will probably be evacuated from the rig when it enters the gulf. (He works right off the mouth of the MS river) He works 7/7 and was not supposed to come home until Wed. This will be awful no matter where it hits. Upper TX/SW LA devesated by Rita. Everything east of that devestated by Katrina. You just can't win.

still a large spread, and it looks like Ernie could be going anywhere. The real question on whether or not he turns north is...will the CF actually make it to the Gulf? and also...where will he be when that happens? Interesting days lay ahead, and anyone from the central TX coast to the FL Panhandle seem to still be at risk.

[skysummit]

linkerweather that is the same idea I am thinking and that our local NWS office guys are saying. Thee will be a still be a ridge in the NE gulf which will not allow for such a sharp turn to the NE. I fully expect this to change more westerly with each new model run. The front is just not going to have any push left or be that strong by the time it reaches the southern states. Remember KATRINA last year. Looks how many time the major models had to shift left once she entered the gulf.

Mike...remember for Katrina how the dynamic models over estimated the weakness? From what I've been reading on various other sites, the majority of mets believe that is what's happening again. It seems like there's one or two on here that think the same.

[linkerweather]

linkerweather that is the same idea I am thinking and that our local NWS office guys are saying. Thee will be a still be a ridge in the NE gulf which will not allow for such a sharp turn to the NE. I fully expect this to change more westerly with each new model run. The front is just not going to have any push left or be that strong by the time it reaches the southern states. Remember KATRINA last year. Looks how many time the major models had to shift left once she entered the gulf.

I think you misinterpreted my comment. I don't think there will be a shift west in the track, but east. Right now, the NHC has the 4 and 5 day points just a slow NW extension of the previous 3 days. Like WXMAN57 alluded to, they are going to have to make a decision about reacting to how the globals are handling the upper air environment. For about 4 or 5 successive runs the globals are forecast a sharp S-N weakness in the GOM. So, as soon as a turn is made, it will make a B-line north. Depending on its speed, there could be a late NNE or subtle NE turn toward the end.

[miamicanes177]

I saved all shear tendency images from the past 24 hours and the shear looks to be moving west as Ernesto is moving west. Not only that, but it looks to be weakening as well.

Yep, and at the top left hand corner of the page you can press the -3 button and it takes you to the previous 3 hours. You can just keep pressing it and go as far back as you like. I usually open several pages and compare all the hours that way. But yeh shear is backing off...and the SAL is nearly dissipated.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[teal61]

Hey AF, a question for you.

I heard in the past that the GFS tends to erode ridges to quickly therefore recurving tropical cyclones to soon. Is this something you have observed also ? I know that the GFS has been showing this for at least a couple of cycles now, but the NHC while adjusting the track a little right is not anywhere close to the turn the GFS or GFDL are showing.