TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[gopherfan21]

Another problem is that instead of listening and learning to the promets, newcomers and amateurs are ignoring them and basically screaming blantantly false information. This is something else that needs to be fixed.

[cpdaman]

i beleive most are giving there opinions which as a weather discussion board should be encouraged within reason

[gopherfan21]

Keyword: within reason

I have a hard time believing that blantantly false information is "within reason"

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

No offense you guys, but I don't see many new posters starting to many problem.

[Derek Ortt]

which question?

questions are better asked via e-mail since the threads are moving so quickly and I have other responsibilities as well

[Dallasis2hot]

A 'time cap' on posting would be a good idea. One poster one here, we all know who, posts so much that his name appears on EVERY single page, some times 2-3 times. He floods the thread, with the same stuff over and over and over.

[cpdaman]

what did someone say that a hurricane was the same as a elephant

what is your "basically blatant false information" don't worry this is my last post on this madness I APOLOGIZE but i am doing it because i strongly beleive MOST opinions on this board have the right to be heard

[MWatkins]

Quick note...looks over the last hour or so the westward movement is picking up again after the jog to the north...based on the last 6 or 7 images from GOES...

MW

[Grease Monkey]

I can see it now. Post quotas being set for each member to limit their posts per day.

[JonathanBelles]

quick note: sorry my KIT thread was deleted, plese repost your info at the preperation thread

[Bailey1777]

Guys keep your eyes open West. This is not going where the models show. Don't let your gaurd down. *RIDGE*

[miamicanes177]

Quick note...looks over the last hour or so the westward movement is picking up again after the jog to the north...based on the last 6 or 7 images from GOES...

MW

thanks matt...I enjoyed your talkin tropics show and listened to the update on tropicalupdate. Do you have any idea on when you might give us another update on the IPR? Thanks a lot!

[Toadstool]

I can see it now. Post quotas being set for each member to limit their posts per day.

lol, it's funny now that you can see the number of posts, and that sets what "category" you are... it's like saying how much hot air is each person full of?

[MWatkins]

Please, and I will only as this one. This is not a chat room or IM exchanges for theories on how to manage a message board. Please stick to Ernesto and converse elsewhere. Try AOL IM or somthing like that...keep the discussion on the weather.

MW

[gopherfan21]

cpda:

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I already said it. The pro mets AND the NHC discussion said this was wrong (or per the nhc disco "dubious") Yet people are still hanging on to the idea for whatever reason (maybe they just really want it to hit their home for some weird reason?)

[Typhoon]

The WRF-ARW still shows a 968mb hurricane heading for the Western Gulf. Not saying that this will come true, just that's it's interesting. The WRF-ARW demonstrated considerable skill last year and will eventually replace the GFDL.

[Bailey1777]

I was fixing to say if you haven't yet check out the ARW thread that is a logical model.

[ConvergenceZone]

Cool I can now see how many post I'v made. 8,100+!

As for this system I would say a shift more westward or west-northwestwrad over the next 24 to 36 hours. Taking it south of Cuba(Kind of like dennis)Then moving northward after 30 hours.

The shear is still hitting it pretty hard...Which is keeping the west side from organizing.

I would say a track west of the Gfs looks good.

I agree, the shear really is influencing the system.

any possibility of this thing pulling a Chris over the next 24 hours with the shear and the proximity to the big islands????

Nope, no Chris at all here, because the worst of the shear is behind the storm and it's going to get better from here. Had the storm really weakened during all of this shear then it would be a different storm, and as long as the center stays over water, not much weakening except when it actually crosses Cuba later on in the period.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Quick note...looks over the last hour or so the westward movement is picking up again after the jog to the north...based on the last 6 or 7 images from GOES...

MW

I thought I saw that too, but thought I'd let somebody else get grilled for mentioning it.

[cmdebbie]

cpda:

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I already said it. The pro mets AND the NHC discussion said this was wrong (or per the nhc disco "dubious") Yet people are still hanging on to the idea for whatever reason (maybe they just really want it to hit their home for some weird reason?)

They also said Charley was going in somewhere near Tampa or North (until just a few short hours before landfall). This is still anybodys ballgame and anyone who says otherwise is absolutely wrong!!!