Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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ericinmia
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#241 Postby ericinmia » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:37 am

no its a different run....

big difference that is really important is that its MUCH higher resolution than the other. Yours is the 54k resolution... ie:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d1.track.png

The one i posted is still being processed and is the 18k resolution.. ie:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d2.track.png

See here is the run status...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/status
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ericinmia
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#242 Postby ericinmia » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:40 am

Miami Radar is now showing flow out of the SE... while all day today we had strongly westerly flow.

Sign the ridge isn't holding? Or that the ULL previously discussed is erroding it right now...
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SouthFloridawx
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#243 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:42 am

ericinmia wrote:no its a different run....

big difference that is really important is that its MUCH higher resolution than the other. Yours is the 54k resolution... ie:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d1.track.png

The one i posted is still being processed and is the 18k resolution.. ie:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d2.track.png

See here is the run status...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/status


If you read my above post my point is that there is model consensus that this may end up being a hit to the southern florida area. I wasn't arguing with what you said.
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AJC3
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#244 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:46 am

ericinmia wrote:Miami Radar is now showing flow out of the SE... while all day today we had strongly westerly flow.

Sign the ridge isn't holding? Or that the ULL previously discussed is erroding it right now...


Can't really use what's going on at the surface as a proxy of how well or poorly the deep layer ridge is holding. Better to simply look at the height changes at 700, 500, 300MB, etc. as well as the wind profiles on the upper air soundings
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#245 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:02 am

Following up on what AJC said,the 06Z observations from Miami and Key West show northeasterly winds at 500 millibars, six hours earlier, both locations were showing easterly winds. (soundings via http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html)
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#246 Postby ericinmia » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:18 am

Image
north of track by a lil
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Coredesat

#247 Postby Coredesat » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:30 am

28/0615 UTC 19.1N 75.0W T4.0/4.0 ERNESTO

No clue how this is possibly a T4.0. :roll:
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HurricaneHunter914
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#248 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:32 am

This can't be a hurricane.
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#249 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:35 am

TPNT KGWC 280702
A. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (FIVE)
B. 28/0615Z (71)
C. 18.8N/7
D. 74.9W/0
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS -28/0615Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL
GIVING A DT OF 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.8 (UCCR)

CRUZ/CAMPBELL

One for the books, a difference of 2 whole T-numbers between agencies. Thank goodness we have recon in there to set the record straight.
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#250 Postby Coredesat » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:37 am

Since I opened the Dvorak box, here's the latest CIMSS ADT:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2006 Time : 081500 UTC
Lat : 19:09:45 N Lon : 75:14:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.5mb/ 45.0kt
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#251 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:52 am

TS Ernesto could miss the U.S all together.
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TampaFl
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#252 Postby TampaFl » Mon Aug 28, 2006 3:53 am

Image
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#253 Postby SouthAlabamaWX » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:00 am

TampaFl wrote:Image


I was thinking the same thing. A couple of days ago, the hype was towards Ernesto getting in the Gulf and maybe reaching cat. 4 strength. Now it may missed the Gulf all together and never reach a major hurricane strength. What a difference a few days make.
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#254 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:01 am

Very true, and for Florida's sake, Ernesto can just go swimming in the Atlantic.
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#255 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:08 am

THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That was just mentioned at the 5 AM Discussion. :eek:
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Evil Jeremy
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#256 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:20 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That was just mentioned at the 5 AM Discussion. :eek:


holey sh*t
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#257 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:22 am

what would it take to bring the track west again?
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bostonseminole
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#258 Postby bostonseminole » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:24 am

fact789 wrote:what would it take to bring the track west again?


pigs flying
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#259 Postby LanceW » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:24 am

fact789 wrote:what would it take to bring the track west again?


The local mets in Orlando are talking about the high pressure off the east coast of FL may induce a more western track, since it has not backed off fully yet. They are also talking of a Charley like track again, with less intensity.
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TexasSam
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#260 Postby TexasSam » Mon Aug 28, 2006 4:25 am

Interesting side effect of all this... Oil price down $1.28, Unleaded down $0.15
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