Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Yeah I see two spins:

One 19N 74W and one NE of that around 21N 77W.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Models seem much more agreeable and consistent since the flight data was put in . . .

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Intensity keeps changing. All TS's and 2 canes.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

[Blown Away]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060828 1800 060829 0600 060829 1800 060830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 76.4W 21.5N 78.1W 22.4N 79.9W 23.4N 81.6W
BAMM 20.9N 76.4W 21.8N 78.2W 23.0N 79.9W 24.3N 81.4W
A98E 20.9N 76.4W 22.0N 78.2W 22.8N 79.4W 23.4N 80.2W
LBAR 20.9N 76.4W 21.9N 78.1W 23.1N 79.9W 24.6N 81.1W
SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 38KTS

20.9, that is very near the N coast, approx 10-15 miles.

[storms in NC]

That would mean it is about to move off shore right?

[jpigott]

latest IR images showing the moisture field is expanding to the NW and looks as if it is trying to wrap around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

That would mean it is about to move off shore right?

If that is where the center is, maybe thats why models have shifted a little W due to the center leaving the coast a little sooner thus making it closer to FL before turning N, I'm not sure just an observation.

[MiamiensisWx]

In terms of whether Ernesto will be a southeast Florida hit or a brush/miss, it looks like it's going to be a close call any way you may look at it, especially with the possible MLC/LLC reformation near, at, or just inland of the northern Cuban coast. In this loop, note the trough digging at the middle levels in the northwest corner, with the southern end of it digging over Texas and western to west-central Louisiana. You can already see evidence of south-southwesterly flow beginning to set in at the middle to upper levels in the western to west-central Gulf of Mexico, and this is gradually spreading east as the trough moves to the east-southeast.

The possible reformation of the MLC/LLC, along with the movement, position, and timing of this trough, Ernesto, and the intensity/position of the Atlantic ridging are likely to make big differences - significant differences - as to whether Ernesto strikes southeast Florida, brushes/stays just offshore, or stays further offshore than indicated by the models. If Ernesto slows more off the southeast Florida coast and the trough continues at it's present or faster timing, a brush with southeast/east-central Florida and a threat/impact to the Carolinas down the road may be most likely. If the trough is delayed, Ernesto may come closer, if not directly strike, southeast Florida before moving off the Florida coast and threatening the Carolinas. This is going to be VERY interesting and needs, along with all the other factors and synoptics, to be watched. The position, intensity, and timing of the Atlantic ridging will also be critical.

Any thoughts on this?

[rnbaida]

***********Folks, look at the visible, the center just moved off the coast of cuba**********

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Very good post. Here in SE Tx we already have NW winds aloft.

[westmoon]

rnbaida,

***********Folks, look at the visible, the center just moved off the coast of cuba**********

Where did you see this?

[BensonTCwatcher]

In terms of whether Ernesto will be a southeast Florida hit or a brush/miss, it looks like it's going to be a close call any way you may look at it, especially with the possible MLC/LLC reformation near, at, or just inland of the northern Cuban coast. In this loop, note the trough digging at the middle levels in the northwest corner, with the southern end of it digging over Texas and western to west-central Louisiana. You can already see evidence of south-southwesterly flow beginning to set in at the middle to upper levels in the western to west-central Gulf of Mexico, and this is gradually spreading east as the trough moves to the east-southeast.

The possible reformation of the MLC/LLC, along with the movement, position, and timing of this trough, Ernesto, and the intensity/position of the Atlantic ridging are likely to make big differences - significant differences - as to whether Ernesto strikes southeast Florida, brushes/stays just offshore, or stays further offshore than indicated by the models. If Ernesto slows more off the southeast Florida coast and the trough continues at it's present or faster timing, a brush with southeast/east-central Florida and a threat/impact to the Carolinas down the road may be most likely. If the trough is delayed, Ernesto may come closer, if not directly strike, southeast Florida before moving off the Florida coast and threatening the Carolinas. This is going to be VERY interesting and needs, along with all the other factors and synoptics, to be watched. The position, intensity, and timing of the Atlantic ridging will also be critical.

Any thoughts on this?

Pretty much in agreement with your assement of the setup. I'd only mention that we see a more pronounced "S" shape track or worse a stalled TC off the GA Coast. Right now I'd put this inland at Georgetown SC but that is a GUESS

[Zadok]

At this point I would say it hit a brick wall when it hit Cuba.

[wxwatcher2]

I think the center has reformed at the coast NW of where you see the dense cloud cover to the E and SE.
It looks to me as if Ernesto is reforming and will move more Westerly which will affect where it comes into Florida and how big a path it will have across the state.

Any pro-mets want to comment please.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think the center has reformed at the coast NW of where you see the dense cloud cover to the E and SE.
It looks to me as if Ernesto is reforming and will move more Westerly which will affect where it comes into Florida and how big a path it will have across the state.

Any pro-mets want to comment please.

If im seeing the same thing you are...Its right on the NHC forecast pts..

[cpdaman]

the center IMO is parralleling the coast inland which is good for everyone not wanting a storm

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... n&type=vis

[Zardoz]

It appears that the center is passing over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

Am I nuts, or does it look like it's heading slightly eastward now, skirting right around the island?

[Stormavoider]

It appears that the center is passing over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

Am I nuts, or does it look like it's heading slightly eastward now, skirting right around the island?

Thats where the convection is. I hope recon flys over there.

[westmoon]

cpdaman,

the center IMO is parralleling the coast inland which is good for everyone not wanting a storm

I hope your right, the longer this storm stays over Cuba the better!

[gatorcane]

looks like the center is just barely inland, about ready to emerge.

[storms in NC]

I am afaid that it will not be over land much longer. It is already trying to get itself together here. the winds are picking up now.