TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Scorpion]

It does look somewhat better. We might get some decent winds tonight and tomorrow at this rate.

[HKY]

Trends are what matter. Those old models mean squat. Look at the change in 12 guidance.

[gatorcane]

anxiously awaiting the 11:00am advisory........

[SouthFloridawx]

Trends are what matter. Those old models mean squat. Look at the change in 12 guidance.

Just wait till the 12Z Global Models come out before you trust the Bamms. GFS was taking it more northward and the bams were taking it into the Yuck. Please use the Bamm models with caution.

[EDR1222]

At this latitude, I would think there is not much attention paid to the BAM models. The GFS, GFDL, UKMET and NOGAPS are tighly clustered and still in good agreement.

[saints63213]

I think NHC has a hold on this now. if any thing it would move back to the right aittle. You can see on the vloop that it is being flaten on the west side. That tell me it would be going on the track it is on by the NHC if not to the right a tad. remember wobbles here and there will make a big diffence in it's track. east or west.

I see no flatening at all im not sure what your seeing.. Can you point out what you mean by flaten on the west side I see some flatening on the south side but not the west. not sure if I would call that flating on the south side just not good out flow.

this is what I was talking about. you can see it is coming oblong now

[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/9452/eid7.th.jpg]

I really don't think thats flatening just the odd shape of the system.

[Canelaw99]

LOL, he's ready to come party in the Keys & Miami!

[fci]

again concentrate on the cone and NOT the line.

Tampa is in that cone.

According to what I have seen from Local Mets; the nasty stuff is NE and E of the "center".

Defintely not a system to worry about the Center of.
If you are a little west of the center there is not much.

As Chris says; don't concentrate on the line.

[HKY]

Trends are what matter. Those old models mean squat. Look at the change in 12 guidance.

Just wait till the 12Z Global Models come out before you trust the Bamms. GFS was taking it more northward and the bams were taking it into the Yuck. Please use the Bamm models with caution.

I've been at this for several years, I undestand fully the tendency of the bamm's. However, when all the 12z runs shift up the western coast, 100's of miles further NW of the NHC track, people need to pay close attention. If the gfdl, gfs, and globals hold their own, then we can feel more confident in the NHC track.

[StJoe]

Just did some homework on Ernie:

The boy's name Ernest is pronounced ERN-ist. It is of Old English origin, and its meaning is "serious; determined; sincere."

[O Town]

Is it me or is Ernesto really trying to get its act together now....doesn't look too hungover from his partying at Cuba last night...

LOL! He does seem to be holding his own.

[Canelaw99]

Determined huh? LOL He's living up to that so far

[SouthFloridawx]

Trends are what matter. Those old models mean squat. Look at the change in 12 guidance.

Just wait till the 12Z Global Models come out before you trust the Bamms. GFS was taking it more northward and the bams were taking it into the Yuck. Please use the Bamm models with caution.

I've been at this for several years, I undestand fully the tendency of the bamm's. However, when all the 12z runs shift up the western coast, 100's of miles further NW of the NHC track, people need to pay close attention. If the gfdl, gfs, and globals hold their own, then we can feel more confident in the NHC track.

Yes we'll wait for th 12Z Global Model Guidance and that is probably what the NHC is also waiting on but, I see not much of a change in the forecast track. I think Ernie has slowed down just a tad maybe making it look more westward.

I see I was correct in my assupmtion with the tad bit slower speed.

[fci]

[quote="fox13weather"]Well, if the storm enters the state near the everglades as expected as a tropical storm and then moves north up the spine of the state then all that the Tampa Bay area will receive will be squalls. Why is that irresposible when a meteorologist is making a forecast that in all likelihood will verify?? Even is the storm becomes a cat 1 at landfall the threat to the tampa bay area is still small.....


THANK YOU.

If all you want is "generic" weather reporting with no analysis or opinion, read the official advisories and forecast.

I respect a local Met who WILL tell you what THEY expect.
Another reason that we use S2K is to just get that!!

Thanks Fox 13 person for saying it.

[curtadams]

This is where Dvorak puts the estimated center as of now. We will have to wait till the 11 advisory and see where they put it.

Look at the bottom of the picture - positioning method is FORECAST INTERPOLATION - ie, they're just picking the spot on the NHC track for that time. Dvorak (or any upper air IR analysis) is basically useless for center determination in a weak TS.

[WmE]

Just did some homework on Ernie:

The boy's name Ernest is pronounced ERN-ist. It is of Old English origin, and its meaning is "serious; determined; sincere."

No big surprise. The old english was influenced by german. (am I correct??) The german word for serious is ernst. There exists also a german name, Ernst.

[fci]

Won't doubt formation of an eye pretty soon...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Way too weak and disorganized to get an "eye" formation.

[Brent]

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

[carve]

What are the chances this thing grows and misses southern florida then turns north heading up the west coast of Flor?Just wondering

[jpigott]

Ernesto might not be able to reorganize its core fast enough to provide for rapid intensification, but he sure is firing up a lot of new convection