TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[carve]

Amateur here...but I am seeing what appears to be the true center of the storm just underneath and to the west of the big 'eye' clearing. I'm assuming that big hole isn't actually the storm's center?...correct me if I'm wrong.

And if the circulation I am seeing is the actual storm center, it looks to be tracking just a hair west of NW...which would seem to put the center of the storm just east of Marathon as it crosses the keys, and just to the immediate east of the southern protrusion of the Florida peninsula near the west end. It would seem like it would track up into the glades, veering closer to Naples than to Ft. Lauderdale, straighten to the north avoiding crossing the west coast, then track up over Lake O and veer back to the NNE exiting between Palm Coast and St. Augustine.

Just an amateur prediction...I'd love to get any comments or corrections if I'm wrong.

Thats what I'm looking at...

No expert but that's what i'm seeing also

[gtalum]

Thats what I'm looking at...

Just before you said it's going into the Gulf.

[THead]

Amateur here...but I am seeing what appears to be the true center of the storm just underneath and to the west of the big 'eye' clearing. I'm assuming that big hole isn't actually the storm's center?...correct me if I'm wrong.

And if the circulation I am seeing is the actual storm center, it looks to be tracking just a hair west of NW...which would seem to put the center of the storm just east of Marathon as it crosses the keys, and just to the immediate east of the southern protrusion of the Florida peninsula near the west end. It would seem like it would track up into the glades, veering closer to Naples than to Ft. Lauderdale, straighten to the north avoiding crossing the west coast, then track up over Lake O and veer back to the NNE exiting between Palm Coast and St. Augustine.

Just an amateur prediction...I'd love to get any comments or corrections if I'm wrong.

Looks to me he is right at 24n and 80w, heading toward the upper keys, just south of Key Largo.

[feederband]

Thats what I'm looking at...

Just before you said it's going into the Gulf.

Thats what will enter the gulf...

[CronkPSU]

maybe i am unclear on the definition but isn't anything north of the keys and west of florida...the eastern gulf of mexico?

i don't think ANYONE is saying it is headed for texas or for the panhandle, just that it looks to be flirting with a temporary visit to the EGOM

[Aquawind]

Could come inland as far west as Naples

there is 100% zero chance of this coming inland that far to the west.

That kind of talk will not be tolerated..

[feederband]

maybe i am unclear on the definition but isn't anything north of the keys and west of florida...the eastern gulf of mexico?

i don't think ANYONE is saying it is headed for texas or for the panhandle, just that it looks to be flirting with a temporary visit to the EGOM

RIGHT..

[craptacular]

VDM at 24'03"N 80'04"W, 1005 mb

[jasons2k]

Well, it looks like in the last few frames it has wobbled a bit and is now closer to the "12 hour" position on the image I had posted

[Recurve]

From what I see on local radar -- Tavernier, then Joe Bay, then across the tip of Florida toward Marco Island -- but don't know how much more northerly it will be then, whether it will stay on the peninsula or exit.

Wish I had some more instrumentation to see the center pass. And boy am I glad, being at 25 N 80.4 west, that this is no stronger than it is.

Here's a molasses reef link for those interested. Alligator Reef and Sombrero light would be other ones to look at.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MLRF1

[storms in NC]

This is where I think the center is. Yes I can be wrong. And this is how I think the path will take. I talked to my Brother in FT. Myers and he said they are not going to get much more than some rain. He works for Lee county. So I am sure they would let them know what is going on. But yes any thing can happen as we all Know. Please don't laugh at me. This is JIMO

[img=http://img161.imageshack.us/img161/2358/e3ye4.th.jpg]

[gtalum]

maybe i am unclear on the definition but isn't anything north of the keys and west of florida...the eastern gulf of mexico?

Well Florida Bay is between the Keys and the peninsula. I would consider teh Gulf to start out beyond Florida Bay.

[shawn67]

maybe i am unclear on the definition but isn't anything north of the keys and west of florida...the eastern gulf of mexico?

i don't think ANYONE is saying it is headed for texas or for the panhandle, just that it looks to be flirting with a temporary visit to the EGOM

THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!!!!

[CronkPSU]

maybe i am unclear on the definition but isn't anything north of the keys and west of florida...the eastern gulf of mexico?

Well Florida Bay is between the Keys and the peninsula. I would consider teh Gulf to start out beyond Florida Bay.

hmmm ok, then yeah that makes it even more of a debate in my head cause that is where i saw it turning

[flhurricaneguy]

ortt said this would happen then a nne turn after 12 hours. nothing new!

[feederband]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

[THead]

VDM at 24'03"N 80'04"W, 1005 mb

Bingo. At least I'm looking in the right spot for once.

Say hi to my hometown and Bucky for me, free drinks for everyone on State St. !!

[deltadog03]

actually yes, this could come in on the SW part or of florida.

[gtalum]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

Well if you consider crossing the Upper Keys and landfalling on the peninsula around the Dade/Monroe line to be entering the eastern Gulf, then I can agree with you.

[Zackiedawg]

Wow...maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing. But 24N & 80W looks like a convection hole, but not the eye. I'm seeing what appears to be a more central looking rotation a bit further south and west of that...maybe 23.8N & 80.5W.

That's what I'm thinking is the center...