Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

artist · #241 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:14 pm

end of third column from the right for knots, correct?

Scorpion · #242 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:15 pm

Looks on satellite to be approaching 100 kts.

YouTube · #243 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:18 pm

In re: to "it might be correct", it certainly might. But I would like to understand more about why it might be correct. Does it see less of a ridge and more of a connection to get H north and out? We sometimes get these pieces of info in the TPC discussions for cyclones- Stewart seems to do that the most these days. When it is explained why one model seems to indicate "X" and the other models indicate "Y", we all can understand better. I agree, the GFDL is probably right overall- and Helene will never get past 60 W. But now that UKMET has jumped off the recurve idea completely (during its 144 hour run) I wonder if the GFDL will ever do so...and if not, why.

Mike and I were discussing the SALEX data and do not know if it was put in to the 00Z models last night.

dwsqos2 · #244 Postby **dwsqos2** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:22 pm

183100 2058 04826 5554 -0611 181100 +178 +170 181107 080 034

107 knots at a flight level of 5554 feet; along with corresponding SFMR winds of 80 knots;
the 18Z reduction likely followed from this.

jusforsean · #245 Postby **jusforsean** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:25 pm

Yeah!! Recon :lol:

#246 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:29 pm

LOL last night it was GFS and now today it is the UKMET.

Sorry about that

YouTube · #247 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:32 pm

GFDL was what last night? Not sure I follow.

artist · #248 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:33 pm

it was the left outlier

Hurricaneman · #249 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:33 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:GFDL was what last night? Not sure I follow.

I think he meant the GFS

#250 Postby **HenkL** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:34 pm

Euro 12Z is almost the same as the 00Z, bringing Helene no further west then 60W on Thursday, and curving the hurricane to the NNE at Friday.
See: http://www.ecmwf.int/.

cinlfla · #251 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:42 pm

Has anyone noticed that Helene is moving north of the forecast points, What will this mean for her future track?

#252 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:44 pm

Strange thing about Helene is that all of the heaviest convection is on the west and NW side of the circulation, instead of the usual NE and East side. With that in mind, how many times have we seen a storm get pulled more toward the direction in which the heaviest convection lies?

Does anyone have any idea why Helene's convection remains heaviest on the NW quadrant?

artist · #253 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:45 pm

I don't think her actual center is.

cinlfla · #254 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:46 pm

artist wrote:I don't think her actual center is.

Are you responding to me?

superfly · #255 Postby **superfly** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:47 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Strange thing about Helene is that all of the heaviest convection is on the west and NW side of the circulation, instead of the usual NE and East side. With that in mind, how many times have we seen a storm get pulled more toward the direction in which the heaviest convection lies?

Does anyone have any idea why Helene's convection remains heaviest on the NW quadrant?

Her NW/N quad is the "traditional NE" quad since it's moving towards the NW. It's the right front quadrant that matters, not compass directions.

artist · #256 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:47 pm

yes - sorry I didn't quote you. :oops:

Thunder44 · #257 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:48 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:183100 2058 04826 5554 -0611 181100 +178 +170 181107 080 034

107 knots at a flight level of 5554 feet; along with corresponding SFMR winds of 80 knots;
the 18Z reduction likely followed from this.

It's look like the reduction they are using is closer to 80%, since they initialized the models at 85kts.

#258 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:48 pm

Helene is tightening and strengthening.

#259 Postby **hial2** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:49 pm

cinlfla wrote:Has anyone noticed that Helene is moving north of the forecast points, What will this mean for her future track?

According to a respected pro met, the "hole" we see is not the center of the storm...the center is actually to the n/w of the "hole"..

cinlfla · #260 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:57 pm

hial2 wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Has anyone noticed that Helene is moving north of the forecast points, What will this mean for her future track?

According to a respected pro met, the "hole" we see is not the center of the storm...the center is actually to the n/w of the "hole"..

I thought the center was that huge hole, in what I thought was the center of the storm. but your saying it's not? I've been tracking the wrong thing. Figures.

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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