Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

[jusforsean]

I think Skeetobiteweather.com must have gotten bored with the season... it usually has invests posted, but not this one even though the plot is available at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif.

the link doesnt work

[rockyman]

I think Skeetobiteweather.com must have gotten bored with the season... it usually has invests posted, but not this one even though the plot is available at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif.

the link doesnt work

Here's the link (just take off the last dot):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

[gatorcane]

as I predicted a few days ago despite the NWS Mia forecast -

We will see good rains Wed through Fri from this system

[dwsqos2]

02/1745 UTC 17.1N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[fci]

First real rain we got here is this afternoon and a little last night and it should end tonight with only a 20% chance on Friday.

Not exactly the 3 day event you "predicted" but we'll take what we can get before the rainy season officially shuts off (pending any El Nino activity we may get).

[tailgater]

02/1745 UTC 17.1N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

Maybe 57 can give us one of those close-up high res. pics. If it stays over water it'll have a decent chance. Those T#s deserve a close eye, but land and lack of Tstorms near the center will curtail any rapid organization right?

[gatorcane]

First real rain we got here is this afternoon and a little last night and it should end tonight with only a 20% chance on Friday.

Not exactly the 3 day event you "predicted" but we'll take what we can get before the rainy season officially shuts off (pending any El Nino activity we may get).

I beg to differ the system is organizing off Belize now and probably will begin to drift North or northeast as we speak and the shear is pulling all the moisture right into us.

It will be rainy until the front passes

[gatorcane]

there is NICE spin down there folks - now lets see if Joyce is trying to develop............

Have you seen the latest sat pics?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is a loop of 93l
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Weak tropical activation near Belize.

If it stays over water we could have a weak tropical system develop.


Cold front isn't strong enough to recurve it.

[SWFLA_CANE]

It appears to be drifting west to west-north-west and should be on land by morning.

[MGC]

Oh so close...if it could just stay offshore. Good cyclonic spin, I don't see the shear the NHC is talking about......MGC

[fci]

First real rain we got here is this afternoon and a little last night and it should end tonight with only a 20% chance on Friday.

Not exactly the 3 day event you "predicted" but we'll take what we can get before the rainy season officially shuts off (pending any El Nino activity we may get).

I beg to differ the system is organizing off Belize now and probably will begin to drift North or northeast as we speak and the shear is pulling all the moisture right into us.

It will be rainy until the front passes

NWS says front comes through tonight with little temperature change and rain is over then. High pressure build in behind it and that keeps the moisture plume from the system down by Belize south of us. We do get high winds though especially along the coast for the next few days but not rain.

I'll take my chances and NOT take an umbrella tomorrow!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like we are getting a nice flare up tonight.
Here is the ir loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[TheEuropean]

03/0545 UTC 16.7N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

System is holding together, completly offshore.

[Chacor]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
BELIZE AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

They dropped the "unfavorable upper-level winds" from the paragraph...

[StormTracker]

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
BELIZE AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

They dropped the "unfavorable upper-level winds" from the paragraph...

"AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD"...It doesn't look like it's drifting to the west to me! It looks more like a NNW drift!

[HURAKAN]

TWD 7:05 AM:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW INLAND ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM MEXICO JUST WEST OF NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS THE SAME WAVE
THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH NOW IS ABOUT 25 TO 30 NM EAST
OF THE SOUTHEAST BELIZE COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...FROM THE WATERS JUST NORTH
OF EASTERN HONDURAS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS IN
BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

Now the low pressure is over water.

[Nimbus]

The extrapolated motion has been to the NNE however that has been in response to the flow ahead of a trough.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_93.gif

The tail end of the front may not pull the system far enough NNE to escape the tropical easterlies.

[Blown Away]

This is why I love weather, amazing how that low is just sitting in that small Gulf Of Honduras, if it moves 20 miles N,W,S it's done. Persistent little system, definite small rotation down there. Longer it hangs on the better the chances it will begin to move N then NE. I still predict a weak Joyce from this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html