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chadtm80 wrote:[web]http://www.storm2k.org/myspace/countdown.htm[/web]
Every year on May 31,those nights are always crowded at the chat room to recieve the new season.I think that on this May 31rst it will be the same.
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Well, I think this May 31st may be a little different. That's because I'm calling for tropical development at about that time (a Depression that is) near the western tip of Cuba. So if I'm right there will be real issues to discuss instead of some of the very forgettable banter that usually goes on the with start of the season. I'm basically going on a "sixth sense" if you will, which includes a lot of observation over the years, also, the current water vapor and shear maps, perhaps a little help from my friends, and a little luck in calling for this developing storm. Storm should be at the entrance of the Gulf of Mexico near tip of Cuba and SW of Key West. Lets see how this unfolds.
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Darn it I forgot to add the disclaimer to my forecast of tropical development near the tip of Cuba in the May 28th-May 31st time frame. Sorry. Here it is.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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I think you could possibly be onto something. The models have been hinting at development in the western caribbean many times recently, and I think that means that the environment may be trying to become more favorable over time. Also, with the moisture train coming across that area, it will be primed for something to spin up. I would say there is a far chance we see an early June system spin up in that area this year. Should be interesting to monitor as the next few weeks unfold..Berwick Bay wrote:Well, I think this May 31st may be a little different. That's because I'm calling for tropical development at about that time (a Depression that is) near the western tip of Cuba. So if I'm right there will be real issues to discuss instead of some of the very forgettable banter that usually goes on the with start of the season. I'm basically going on a "sixth sense" if you will, which includes a lot of observation over the years, also, the current water vapor and shear maps, perhaps a little help from my friends, and a little luck in calling for this developing storm. Storm should be at the entrance of the Gulf of Mexico near tip of Cuba and SW of Key West. Lets see how this unfolds.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think you could possibly be onto something. The models have been hinting at development in the western caribbean many times recently, and I think that means that the environment may be trying to become more favorable over time. Also, with the moisture train coming across that area, it will be primed for something to spin up. I would say there is a far chance we see an early June system spin up in that area this year. Should be interesting to monitor as the next few weeks unfold..Berwick Bay wrote:Well, I think this May 31st may be a little different. That's because I'm calling for tropical development at about that time (a Depression that is) near the western tip of Cuba. So if I'm right there will be real issues to discuss instead of some of the very forgettable banter that usually goes on the with start of the season. I'm basically going on a "sixth sense" if you will, which includes a lot of observation over the years, also, the current water vapor and shear maps, perhaps a little help from my friends, and a little luck in calling for this developing storm. Storm should be at the entrance of the Gulf of Mexico near tip of Cuba and SW of Key West. Lets see how this unfolds.
I agree with the possible spin up and lesser shear and more moist
tropical conditions...It would not be unusual that a
depression forms in next 2-3 weeks over caribbean
like with alberto last year
now whether it brings me rain is another story
I'd like some tropical depression rains
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Yeah, I'm rationalizing this "sense" of something developing here by thinking of a definite change in upper level conditions. The trough is weakening and moving out to sea. Right now there is a strong upper level flow from west to east over the area. But my "sense" is that this will lighten as the trough moves east. Think there will be enough moisture in the area to pop up some storms near the west tip of Cuba in about a week or so. We'll see how it works out.
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- MississippiHurricane
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Jam151 wrote:the NOAA outlook is still coming out today right?
Yes,later today.
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chadtm80 wrote:[web]http://www.storm2k.org/myspace/countdown.htm[/web]
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