GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[wxmann_91]

There is a way...

June 2007 data will take some time to come out, but here was June 2005 data. Needless to say, it speaks for itself.

(map from http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Composites/printpage.pl )

*cut*

That page is too confusing to use to get the data I want. Can we compare May 2005 and May 2007 then?

Here it is...







The gist is... abnormally low ambient pressures in the ATL, even before the season started, allowed the ITCZ to get an early heads start and end up abnormally far north. This inital step has been slower to occur this year.

[cycloneye]

Reynolds Atlantic Anomalies weekly Update



The latest Reynolds Anomalies of June 30th data shows a average MDR area,a more warmer Western and Central Atlantic and a very warm Northern Atlantic.

[terstorm1012]

So does this mean everyone will once again rush to update their storm predictions for the season after appearing to back off on them a few weeks ago?

[Cyclenall]

Here it is...

*cut*

*cut*

The gist is... abnormally low ambient pressures in the ATL, even before the season started, allowed the ITCZ to get an early heads start and end up abnormally far north. This inital step has been slower to occur this year.

Excellent images. It gives you an idea of the pressures that were in place in May. Clearly 2005 had a large area of low ambient pressures but I notice it was mainly in the middle of the North Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

So does this mean everyone will once again rush to update their storm predictions for the season after appearing to back off on them a few weeks ago?

Well,yes the anomalies haved turned more warmer in different parts of the Atlantic in the past 2 weeks.Now let's see if this is a warming trend or are fluctuations.However,being the waters warm doesn't guarantee that a system will develop as other factors come to play an important roll.But certainly,the sst's and anomalies factor is important as it helps fuel a system.

[vacanechaser]

nice warm pool off the carolina and virginia coast... does it look like a target area for later in the season??? wow, big turn around in temps...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

nice warm pool off the carolina and virginia coast... does it look like a target area for later in the season??? wow, big turn around in temps...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yes Jesse.It's a big turnaround of the anomalies.Trend or only fluctuations? I would wait for a couple more of the Reynold updates to see how will the anomalies be by then.It will be interesting to see how will they be when the peak of the season arrives as some outlooks haved been forecasting cooler anomalies by then.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa Bay...truthfully, you worry me more than any weather potentials. Maybe it is because I am old, maybe it is because I accept there is nothing I can do but be prepared and keep a careful eye on the weather. But I feel the stress of your fear/concern through your posts.
While your anxiousness is understandable from the point of view of what has happened in the recent past, I would seriously advise you to get some sort of outdoor hobby...working with little kids this summer at a day camp in your area, or if that is not feasible, doing weekend activities with needy kids, like a big brother/big sister group? It is important to concentrate on the life we are living, while being as prepared as possible for the life to come, be it days, weeks, months or years from now.
The reality is, each day is precious. We may get 100's of them. How wasteful to lose even one worrying (to the point of being frozen in the headlights) about what may or may not happen! Hope for the best!!! Prepare for the worst, and in the meantime, live each day of your life. Because... 97.3 %...it's BEAUTIFUL!!!

Thank you for advice...
I'm not as worried now though at the time I was surprised...
but now I'm less worried...
I sometimes get bursts of worry but right now I'm much calmer...
usually with me something will worry me intensely for a short
time and then I think about other things...
In this case it was mostly surprise at how the heat content
exceeds 2005 at this time...
But yes that is definately true...worries become exaggerated in
my mind...but I get it under control usually after about 10-25 minutes...
The worry comes in episodes...but I rationalized that the probability
of a major hurricane hitting my area in the nightmare fashion is very
low...so that makes me much calmer...

[Aquawind]

Interesting Warm to the north and cool south in general terms excluding the caribbean. It's so close to norm it's moot. SSTs will not be a limiting factor..sure maybe fewer majors over the same area but it's plenty warm already. The MDR is so close but still early. I did not expect the +2F to expand like most all of the warm anomalies did.

I still don't see what pattern change they expect to cool the Atl. This pattern is just warming. At this rate it is going to take some serious upwelling to cool the Atl. Granted those SSTs can flucuate due to short and long term changes but the areas already above normal are just getting warmer deeper. The trough along the east coast certainly hasn't cooled things to much. The Azores certainly hasn't done much cooling as the temps are balmy in the vacinity. Really the cool anomalies are so small and close to average they are moot looking at all of the factors.

[drezee]

Let me start off by saying, yes I know that the winds are all but calm in the central GOM. This happens every year at some point. I will say that even with Calm winds buoy 42003, a deep water buoy, never got to 31.9 C before August in 2004 or 2005. 2006, it happened in mid july.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[Aric Dunn]

here is an inetresting comparison..
in one month on august first .. this is how much warmer the atlantic needs to get if we want to see 2005 levels lol

2007 now


2005 august first

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2005 and 2007 look very close
but of course too much dry air right now
should prevent any short
term development.
I think things will explode in August.

EDITED: ssts map rather impressive:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

['CaneFreak]

Just to let you know...that is not a heat content map...that is a maximum potential intensity map....two different things....like apples and chicken or something...

[skysummit]

I'm pretty sure Aric knows which maps those are. Plus....he's talking about SSTs, not content. That's darn close Aric!!!

[x-y-no]

Not really fair to compare July 2 with August 1 - the basin warms up a lot in July.

Here's early July 2005:



Note that 2007 is warmer in the Gulf and western Caribbean, but 2005 was substantially warmer in the MDR and especially north of the leeward islands (where we saw significant cyclogenesis that year.)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Just to let you know...that is not a heat content map...that is a maximum potential intensity map....two different things....like apples and chicken or something...

thank you. ..I'll correct that...basically so the ssts look very conducive
to strong storms...so i think we see major hurricanes in august and september
and plenty of them..

[cycloneye]

This is the weekly forecast of sst's from CFS.They continue to cool down the MDR area by August and September.Maybe this is what TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) July forecast talks about this cooldown in the MDR due to the strong trade winds.

[Aquawind]

Interesting CFS forecast Luis.. The MDR is within .5 of normal so no biggie. Still above in the west except for along the eastern seaboard. I assume the trough is expected to keep the SSTs in check somewhat. I am a bit suprised at the continued westward expension of the cool water in the Pacific. Like any other forecast it can be wrong..

[Aric Dunn]

Not really fair to compare July 2 with August 1 - the basin warms up a lot in July.

Here's early July 2005:



Note that 2007 is warmer in the Gulf and western Caribbean, but 2005 was substantially warmer in the MDR and especially north of the leeward islands (where we saw significant cyclogenesis that year.)

umm .. wow.. well i guess no one figured out why i was comparing aug first 05 with now..

well i cant really say it any simpler !! seee 05 was one of if not the warmest ssts on record.. so i picked august 05 as a good time to compare because ssts are nearly at there warmest.. and i said in my original post that the SSTS have quite a bit to go if its going to be anywhere near august 05 when that time comes in a month.. the whole point is that there is a lot of water that needs to warm up.. i guess i should have put july 05 in there as well just to make it easier..
anyway no big deal ...

[vacanechaser]

This is the weekly forecast of sst's from CFS.They continue to cool down the MDR area by August and September.Maybe this is what TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) July forecast talks about this cooldown in the MDR due to the strong trade winds.

notice an expanding and cooling in the nino region too... that is pretty impressive... that should be watched as well...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team