Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[drezee]

I just got off the phone with the 53rd and they are not flying out today.

[tailgater]

T storms are waning, lets take a wait and see approach, if the T-storms start refiing and remain for 6 or so hrs., then I'd think they might want to take another look.

[wjs3]

Time-sensitive post here...

Interesting satellite loop for anyone who's interested. Go run a visible loop (here's the site I use: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html) at 1 KM resolution.

Watch to the NW of the "blob". You'll see all of the clouds in that area get obliterated by outflow from the convection--the outflow origniates at the convection and spreads NW. You'll see the cumulus field disappear as it passes.

If you look at the KMLB radar, you'll see what little precip is evident to the NW of the center disappear as the outflow passes.

If I am not mistaken, outflow at low levels like this is not an indicator for development of a TC. To develop, we'd want a great deal of convecgent flow at the surface. Outflow suggests that wind is heading OUT, not converging in. Can anyone correct/improve/clarify this explanation?

WJS3

[Evil Jeremy]

1: you just explained a sub-tropical cyclone

2: you also described the setup that helped kill Andrea the first time.

[wjs3]

Andrea was killed the first time by synoptic level shear (among other things), not by outflow from the sytem's own storms, no?

How would you say that's a subtropical cyclone I described? Outflow can happen in a mature tropical cyclone too. You can see outflow boundaries even in well developed hurricanes.

Thanks

WJS3

[Chacor]

Put together this colour IR loop in Macromedia/Adobe Flash (hence the relatively sucky quality)... from 0715Z to 1545Z

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/9051/andrearemnantirgz8.gif - GIF format
http://img409.imageshack.us/my.php?image=andreahj5.swf - Shockwave Flash (swf) format

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

Looking at the Melbourne radar, I see the convection building to the N and S from the east side of the circulation. Andrea looks better today than she did anytime yesterday, IMO. Buoy off Melbourne, S of Andrea finding gusts near 30mph.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

Time-sensitive post here...

Interesting satellite loop for anyone who's interested. Go run a visible loop (here's the site I use: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html) at 1 KM resolution.

Watch to the NW of the "blob". You'll see all of the clouds in that area get obliterated by outflow from the convection--the outflow origniates at the convection and spreads NW. You'll see the cumulus field disappear as it passes.

If you look at the KMLB radar, you'll see what little precip is evident to the NW of the center disappear as the outflow passes.

If I am not mistaken, outflow at low levels like this is not an indicator for development of a TC. To develop, we'd want a great deal of convecgent flow at the surface. Outflow suggests that wind is heading OUT, not converging in. Can anyone correct/improve/clarify this explanation?

WJS3

Yes, I noticed the outflow boundary earlier.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The smoke is very bad right now...

[NDG]

Time-sensitive post here...

Interesting satellite loop for anyone who's interested. Go run a visible loop (here's the site I use: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html) at 1 KM resolution.

Watch to the NW of the "blob". You'll see all of the clouds in that area get obliterated by outflow from the convection--the outflow origniates at the convection and spreads NW. You'll see the cumulus field disappear as it passes.

If you look at the KMLB radar, you'll see what little precip is evident to the NW of the center disappear as the outflow passes.

If I am not mistaken, outflow at low levels like this is not an indicator for development of a TC. To develop, we'd want a great deal of convecgent flow at the surface. Outflow suggests that wind is heading OUT, not converging in. Can anyone correct/improve/clarify this explanation?

WJS3

That's fairly normal for weak system, the low has plenty of inflow on SE side, thus the convection keeps refiring.

[Blown Away]

It appears the rain associated w/ Andrea is going to tease us and stay just offshore. Treasure Coast is <100 miles from this rainfall. Maybe Andrea will keep moving S, I'll start doing the rain dance.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tailgater]

Time-sensitive post here...

Interesting satellite loop for anyone who's interested. Go run a visible loop (here's the site I use: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html) at 1 KM resolution.

Watch to the NW of the "blob". You'll see all of the clouds in that area get obliterated by outflow from the convection--the outflow origniates at the convection and spreads NW. You'll see the cumulus field disappear as it passes.

If you look at the KMLB radar, you'll see what little precip is evident to the NW of the center disappear as the outflow passes.

If I am not mistaken, outflow at low levels like this is not an indicator for development of a TC. To develop, we'd want a great deal of convecgent flow at the surface. Outflow suggests that wind is heading OUT, not converging in. Can anyone correct/improve/clarify this explanation?

WJS3

Nice obs, kinda unusual to see an outflow boundary without clouds.
also would anyone like to move this 100 or so miles west.
http://radar.weather.gov/Legend/NTP/MLB ... gend_0.gif

Yes, I noticed the outflow boundary earlier.

[HURAKAN]

POST-ANDREA:


TD #4, 2000:

Code: Select all

Table 1. Preliminary Best Track - Tropical Depression Four, 8-11 August 2000.  Date/Time
(UTC) Position Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage
Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W)
08 / 1200 28.2 74.2 1011 30 tropical depression 
08 / 1800 28.1 75.1 1010 30 "
09 / 0000 28.0 76.0 1010 30 "
09 / 0600 27.9 76.8 1010 30 "
09 / 1200 27.9 77.4 1010 30 "
09 / 1800 27.9 77.9 1010 30 "
10 / 0000 28.0 78.6 1009 30 "
10 / 0600 28.3 79.3 1010 30 "
10 / 1200 28.7 78.9 1010 30 "
10 / 1800 28.9 78.3 1011 25 "
11 / 0000 29.2 77.8 1011 25 "
11 / 0600 29.4 77.2 1012 25 "
11 / 1200 29.6 76.5 1013 25 "
 
10 / 0000 28.0 78.6 1009 30 minimum pressure


UHHMM, something is wrong here. The bottom one is a depression, but the top one is not. Both have a strong low pressure system, but one is almost devoid of convection, nevertheless, that's the depression, while Andrea is not.

By the way, almost in the same location!!!

[Javlin]

I do not think she will be hanging around much longer,it comes from the West


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[HURAKAN]

SW N ATLC...
REMNANT OF ANDREA CONTINUES TO CHURN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 29N80W. A PULSE OF CONVECTION WAS FLARING NEAR THE CENTER
OF THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING...BUT IS DISSIPATING CURRENTLY. A
MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS UP TO 30 KT ON THE SE
QUADRANT OF ANDREA IN THE CONVECTION. OBSERVATIONS FROM 41010
AND 41009 AS WELL AS QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT AROUND THE
SYSTEM. BUOY 41009 WAS REPORTING A 1007 MB PRES AS WELL JUST W
OF THE CENTER. JUDGING FROM COASTAL RADAR IMAGERY...THE CENTER
APPEARS TO STILL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY S. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOMORROW. THIS WILL PROMPT A COLD FRONT INTO THE
WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA AND N OF THE BAHAMAS BY SUN. AS A
RESULT...THE LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE STARTING
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE 9 TO 10 FT RANGE FOR THE MOST
PART AROUND THE LOW TODAY...THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
FRONT STARTING SUN NIGHT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml?

No mention of possible re-development.

[HURAKAN]

ANDREA'S LIFE:

[Thunder44]

I see another outflow boundary coming out on the NE side and pressure are beginning to rise on the surrounding bouys. I don't think this system will develop much more today. It's fighting off too much dry air.

[HURAKAN]

Still she looks a lot better than last night.

[JonathanBelles]

Andrea may have taken a life:


Holly Hill surfer drowns after taking on 'gigantic wave' in New Smyrna Beach

Tanya Caldwell | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted May 9, 2007, 3:31 PM EDT

Beach officials have identified the surfer who drowned in New Smyrna Beach today.

Scott Kevin Williams, a 32-year-old man from Holly Hill, died after he took on a "gigantic wave" and wiped out, said Capt. Scott Petersohn, a spokesman for the Volusia County Beach Patrol.

Williams was one of the hundreds of surfers on the beach this morning who took advantage of the 6- to 8-foot waves that are coming in because of Subtropical Storm Andrea, Petersohn said.

"The wave kind of gobbled him up, he wiped out and he basically drowned," Petersohn said.

Williams was still leashed to his board as his buddies pulled him ashore about 10:30 a.m., Petersohn said. He was rushed to Bert Fish Memorial Hospital, where he was pronounced dead.

Investigators think Williams may have hit his head on the board, Petersohn said. They won't know for sure until an autopsy is completed.

The drowning happened near the Flagler Avenue beach approach, one of the main approaches, Petersohn said. The beach remains open for beachgoers, who have been taking advantage of the waves all day, he said.

"The waves are unbelievable. It doesn't get like this very often," Petersohn said. "The surfers hold their breath, waiting for days like this."

But when those days come, Petersohn said, those surfers have to be careful.

"A 6- to 8-foot wave is fun to surf on," he said, "but they're really, really powerful."

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/loc ... -headlines