INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[ronjon]

18Z GFS now has the low pressure crossing central FL instead of S FL. All models seem to be shifting slightly left or westward from this mornings track. 18Z NAM now has the low hitting pensacola early Sunday Morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif

[windstorm99]

NAM is worthless in the tropics and as far as the GFS if you look at the run you can see all the heavy rain the will hopefully pan out for florida.If recon is not scratched which is looking like that might happen right now i think we will get a better handle on were this broad center is which right now appears in the mid-levels.

[southerngreen]

the local mets (tpa-sp) have used the phrase "tropical system" - how is that different from a tropical depression? is that because the barometric pressure isn't low enough? because there's no circulation or what? (sorry for sounding like such a newby)

maybe we all need a pre-season primer in hurricane grammer & syntax. (short & sweet)



Just found this on my friendly accuweather.com -
"Hurricane season is still not quite officially underway, but there is some tropical activity brewing. Over the past day or two, a growing area of showers and thunderstorms has developed in the western Caribbean and southeast Gulf of Mexico. The pressure at the surface is lowering and given enough time, this will eventually cause a cyclonic circulation to begin -- the precursor to tropical storm generation."

i guess they just try to be real careful so they don't panic anybody. thanks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z GFS now has the low pressure crossing central FL instead of S FL. All models seem to be shifting slightly left or westward from this mornings track. 18Z NAM now has the low hitting pensacola early Sunday Morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif

I noticed that too. However, until anything definite forms, the models are probably not going to do that great. At the moment, I would say that anywhere from New Orleans to Key West (or may be even some other area such as the Yucatan or Cuba) could be at risk from a potential tropical system IF one were to actually form out of this mess. We will probably know a lot more by tomorrow once we see if the models actually hold up or if something completely different plays out. Let's just hope FL and the SE United States gets some good rain out of this!

[wxman57]

the local mets (tpa-sp) have used the phrase "tropical system" - how is that different from a tropical depression? is that because the barometric pressure isn't low enough? because there's no circulation or what? (sorry for sounding like such a newby)

maybe we all need a pre-season primer in hurricane grammer & syntax. (short & sweet)

It lacks a low-level circulation center, so it's just a tropical disturbance or "system". If it gains a well-defined low-level circulation then it could be upgraded to a depression. No sign of that this evening.

[ronjon]

NAM is worthless in the tropics and as far as the GFS if you look at the run you can see all the heavy rain the will hopefully pan out for florida.If recon is not scratched which is looking like that might happen right now i think we will get a better handle on were this broad center is which right now appears in the mid-levels.

Well, I would add this isn't exactly a tropical event. At this point, you have to see if the models are reasonably depicting the surrounding environment (i.e. upper level pattern). I wouldn't discount the NAM solution totally. If the trough digs deeper in the western GOM, this whole mess could easily get steered more northward. The consensus from all the global models looks like the Euro or CMC track (although not as strong or as fast as CMC) which is looking more and more like the tampa bay area northward to the FL big bend. This exact track stuff is really all academic since all the weather will be located on the east side of the center - and right now, this weather extends 200-300 miles east of the center.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Whether or not this actually becomes tropical by definition, will the pressure gradient develop to bring strong winds with this, even if it is a pretty weak storm? Because of the direction it is moving, if it were to come up the west coast close to the Tampa, St. Pete area, would we need to be concerned with a surge/flooding event at all? (I am only about 2 ft. above sea level, is why I ask!)

[sunnyday]

I agree with Mr. Mayfield. I've felt all along that it will go west of those of us on the east Fl coast. Actually, I think it may go north and west of So. Fla. I hate feeling this way because we are so desperate for rain.

[wxman57]

I agree with Mr. Mayfield. I've felt all along that it will go west of those of us on the east Fl coast. Actually, I think it may go north and west of So. Fla. I hate feeling this way because we are so desperate for rain.

Just remember that it'll be a sheared low center, meaning almost all rain will be east of the center, perhaps out to several hundred miles east of the center. You may well get some decent rainfall in SE Florida even if the center moves ashore near Tampa.

[MiamiensisWx]

The upper-air thermodynamics support a hybrid or mild subtropical system. The latest imagery seems to indicate a possible transition from a tropical sfc low to a nontropical or subtropical system. Note the "comma" shape of the system. This is indicative of interaction with a nearby trough and this typically heralds a nontropical or hybrid-type low. High shear values also support a cold-core system or mild warm core.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

We need to monitor the location of the LLC. If the shear-induced convection is adjacent to the LLC (further south), the chances of subtropical or tropical development are higher. At any rate, the precipitation is excellent for the parched Southeast. The track of the sfc low will determine the mean locations of heavier accumulations.

[jaxfladude]

Forgive such a question, but:
Will this called Sub-Tropical Depression One or Sub-Tropical Depression Two if the NHC/TPC deems it such??

[ronjon]

Hold on to your umbrellas S FL, here comes the rain!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[jaxfladude]

Hold on to your umbrellas S FL, here comes the rain!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Hey bring some of that stuff called rain up north about 300-400 miles, we need some downpours too, you know....

[Derek Ortt]

STD #2 if declared

Naming is for the calander year

[wjs3]

Hold on to your umbrellas S FL, here comes the rain!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You know what's odd? if you look at the Miami Radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no


A lot of that precip over Dade that is showing in the Key West Radar disappears.

Anyone know why that's happening?

WJS3

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

More accurate radar for the metro areas in dade/broward:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

I was shocked when I looked at the key west radar there and walked outside to see it wasn't raining...

Then I realized the key west radar is shooting much higher up where I live.

[wjs3]

More accurate radar for the metro areas in dade/broward:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

I was shocked when I looked at the key west radar there and walked outside to see it wasn't raining...

Then I realized the key west radar is shooting much higher up where I live.

Well, yes, but if it's raining up there, shouldn't it be raining at the surface too?

Virga? When you look at composite reflectivity from Miami, it shows, so it does suggest the precip is elevated but not making it down????

WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

STD #2 is declared

Naming is for the calander year

huh?

[Chacor]

STD #2 is declared

Naming is for the calander year

Just to clarify that you're replying to jaxfladude and mean that "STD #2 would be declared"?

[Aric Dunn]

STD #2 is declared

Naming is for the calander year

Just to clarify that you're replying to jaxfladude and mean that "STD #2 would be declared"?

oh its just seemed so random ... could not figure out if he was answering someones question