NHC News Item

[Aric Dunn]

i love how some of you are hating on the forecasters, with little or no knowledge of them... an entrie group of folks making those statements and all most of you can do is hammer them with little or no knowledge of what may really be going on there... i dont know either, but i think in the time i have spent with these people, i trust what they say... sounds to me like they should have hired within... someone that knows the rutine, the people and a better working knowledge of hurricane forecasting... just my $.02


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

agreed 100%.. both you and I, jesse have meet many of the forecaster down there and i have personally talked candidly with them as well as had the opportunity to interview many of them. I cant see them doing anything of the sort without there being some real good reasons for it, and i have meet and spoke with porenza twice.. although in the short amount of time that we talked I see know reason for whats going on down there. so i refuse to speculate!! thats why i have not posted in this thread much ..

but obviously there is more then what we are hearing .. in the news.. so let stop bashing anyone because we just dont know..
and i say "bashing" very mildly to allow for those that are not really doing so ..

[windstorm99]

i love how some of you are hating on the forecasters, with little or no knowledge of them... an entrie group of folks making those statements and all most of you can do is hammer them with little or no knowledge of what may really be going on there... i dont know either, but i think in the time i have spent with these people, i trust what they say... sounds to me like they should have hired within... someone that knows the rutine, the people and a better working knowledge of hurricane forecasting... just my $.02


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

agreed 100%.. both you and I, jesse have meet many of the forecaster down there and i have personally talked candidly with them as well as had the opportunity to interview many of them. I cant see them doing anything of the sort without there being some real good reasons for it, and i have meet and spoke with porenza twice.. although in the short amount of time that we talked I see know reason for whats going on down there. so i refuse to speculate!! thats why i have not posted in this thread much ..

Living blocks from the NHC ive also had the opportunity of meeting several forecasters at the NHC from jack beven which is an awsome guy with a great personality by the way to avila and formosa.I also honestly feel there's something much deeper going on in there then just a quikscat issue we just dont know about it and iam glad franklin came out and clearly stated his true feelings about bill.

With half of the NHC staff against bill its only a matter in time before he is replaced.I would love for rappaport to take the job but he is really not interested in the job.


www.Adrian's Weather.com

[vacanechaser]

i love how some of you are hating on the forecasters, with little or no knowledge of them... an entrie group of folks making those statements and all most of you can do is hammer them with little or no knowledge of what may really be going on there... i dont know either, but i think in the time i have spent with these people, i trust what they say... sounds to me like they should have hired within... someone that knows the rutine, the people and a better working knowledge of hurricane forecasting... just my $.02


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

agreed 100%.. both you and I, jesse have meet many of the forecaster down there and i have personally talked candidly with them as well as had the opportunity to interview many of them. I cant see them doing anything of the sort without there being some real good reasons for it, and i have meet and spoke with porenza twice.. although in the short amount of time that we talked I see know reason for whats going on down there. so i refuse to speculate!! thats why i have not posted in this thread much ..

but obviously there is more then what we are hearing .. in the news.. so let stop bashing anyone because we just dont know..
and i say "bashing" very mildly to allow for those that are not really doing so ..

i agree with you on the amount of posts to this thread.. i have not posted much here either as we, hirt, have a stake for lack of a better term in keeping a good relationship with all involved... i have only met bill once but seemed nice to me... but you just never know... the forecasters i have known for several years now and have gone out to eat with a few of them during the hurricane conferences in the past.. thats why i just cant see them doing it for ill reasons... but we just dont have a good feel for it... it just drives me crazy with the folks here slamming the forecasters who they may not know, for things none of us know about... damn!! hope that makes sense... whats funny to me is how the folks that were claiming that it was a republican or white house conspiracy to boot him, have been somewhat silent after they found out that it was the forecasters who may have started this.. see what happens when you dont know all the facts!!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

i love how some of you are hating on the forecasters, with little or no knowledge of them... an entrie group of folks making those statements and all most of you can do is hammer them with little or no knowledge of what may really be going on there... i dont know either, but i think in the time i have spent with these people, i trust what they say... sounds to me like they should have hired within... someone that knows the rutine, the people and a better working knowledge of hurricane forecasting... just my $.02


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

agreed 100%.. both you and I, jesse have meet many of the forecaster down there and i have personally talked candidly with them as well as had the opportunity to interview many of them. I cant see them doing anything of the sort without there being some real good reasons for it, and i have meet and spoke with porenza twice.. although in the short amount of time that we talked I see know reason for whats going on down there. so i refuse to speculate!! thats why i have not posted in this thread much ..

Living blocks from the NHC ive also had the opportunity of meeting several forecasters at the NHC from jack beven which is an awsome guy with a great personality by the way to avila and formosa.I also honestly feel there's something much deeper going on in there then just a quikscat issue we just dont know about it and iam glad franklin came out and clearly stated his true feelings about bill.

With half of the NHC staff against bill its only a matter in time before he is replaced.I would love for rappaport to take the job but he is really not interested in the job.


www.Adrian's Weather.com

they need to go find stewart and make him the director... that would be the best... he and jack are two of the guys there we talk to quite a bit.. well, with the conference and the news articles today about verbal abuse from bill, i think it is pretty much more that qs.... they pretty much laid it out... he dont listen to them, dont respect them... so on and so on.. not saying thats the truth or all the facts, but, thats what i am listening too.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

i love how some of you are hating on the forecasters, with little or no knowledge of them... an entrie group of folks making those statements and all most of you can do is hammer them with little or no knowledge of what may really be going on there... i dont know either, but i think in the time i have spent with these people, i trust what they say... sounds to me like they should have hired within... someone that knows the rutine, the people and a better working knowledge of hurricane forecasting... just my $.02


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

agreed 100%.. both you and I, jesse have meet many of the forecaster down there and i have personally talked candidly with them as well as had the opportunity to interview many of them. I cant see them doing anything of the sort without there being some real good reasons for it, and i have meet and spoke with porenza twice.. although in the short amount of time that we talked I see know reason for whats going on down there. so i refuse to speculate!! thats why i have not posted in this thread much ..

but obviously there is more then what we are hearing .. in the news.. so let stop bashing anyone because we just dont know..
and i say "bashing" very mildly to allow for those that are not really doing so ..

i agree with you on the amount of posts to this thread.. i have not posted much here either as we, hirt, have a stake for lack of a better term in keeping a good relationship with all involved... i have only met bill once but seemed nice to me... but you just never know... the forecasters i have known for several years now and have gone out to eat with a few of them during the hurricane conferences in the past.. thats why i just cant see them doing it for ill reasons... but we just dont have a good feel for it... it just drives me crazy with the folks here slamming the forecasters who they may not know, for things none of us know about... damn!! hope that makes sense... whats funny to me is how the folks that were claiming that it was a republican or white house conspiracy to boot him, have been somewhat silent after they found out that it was the forecasters who may have started this.. see what happens when you dont know all the facts!!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

exactly.. it just crazy and we need to let it play out and wait for more answers as too what caused it.. but yeah i just cant make a good assesment about it.. because the fact that i have meet both the forecaster and porenza.. so its hard to say its one thing or the other..

[Toadstool]

...it just drives me crazy with the folks here slamming the forecasters who they may not know, for things none of us know about... damn!! hope that makes sense... whats funny to me is how the folks that were claiming that it was a republican or white house conspiracy to boot him, have been somewhat silent after they found out that it was the forecasters who may have started this.. see what happens when you dont know all the facts!!!!

Just because the forecasters are "starting this" doesn't mean it's not a conspiracy (although I don't think it would be a very deep one). They appoint a dude (Proenza) from the outside knowing that will upset the forecasters, then send an inspection team down to assure the forecasters that Proenza is a bad guy, so they step foreward. Then the white house outsources the NHC due to the untenable and unprofessional situation.

I personally don't believe this is the way it is, but you said "see what happens when you dont know all the facts", and I would say that goes for all of us.

[Aric Dunn]

...it just drives me crazy with the folks here slamming the forecasters who they may not know, for things none of us know about... damn!! hope that makes sense... whats funny to me is how the folks that were claiming that it was a republican or white house conspiracy to boot him, have been somewhat silent after they found out that it was the forecasters who may have started this.. see what happens when you dont know all the facts!!!!

Just because the forecasters are "starting this" doesn't mean it's not a conspiracy (although I don't think it would be a very deep one). They appoint a dude (Proenza) from the outside knowing that will upset the forecasters, then send an inspection team down to assure the forecasters that Proenza is a bad guy, so they step foreward. Then the white house outsources the NHC due to the untenable and unprofessional situation.

I personally don't believe this is the way it is, but you said "see what happens when you dont know all the facts", and I would say that goes for all of us.

did you just say outsource the NHC !! lol

[Toadstool]

...it just drives me crazy with the folks here slamming the forecasters who they may not know, for things none of us know about... damn!! hope that makes sense... whats funny to me is how the folks that were claiming that it was a republican or white house conspiracy to boot him, have been somewhat silent after they found out that it was the forecasters who may have started this.. see what happens when you dont know all the facts!!!!

Just because the forecasters are "starting this" doesn't mean it's not a conspiracy (although I don't think it would be a very deep one). They appoint a dude (Proenza) from the outside knowing that will upset the forecasters, then send an inspection team down to assure the forecasters that Proenza is a bad guy, so they step foreward. Then the white house outsources the NHC due to the untenable and unprofessional situation.

I personally don't believe this is the way it is, but you said "see what happens when you dont know all the facts", and I would say that goes for all of us.

did you just say outsource the NHC !! lol

lol, I said I didn't believe that is the way it is... just an example... they could bring in Michael Brown to teach the complainers that if you have a mutiny your boss gets replaced by a worse one! I'm just agreeing none of us has a clue, but obviously it's more than the QuikScat deal that the press is fond of pinning this soley upon.

[vacanechaser]

...it just drives me crazy with the folks here slamming the forecasters who they may not know, for things none of us know about... damn!! hope that makes sense... whats funny to me is how the folks that were claiming that it was a republican or white house conspiracy to boot him, have been somewhat silent after they found out that it was the forecasters who may have started this.. see what happens when you dont know all the facts!!!!

Just because the forecasters are "starting this" doesn't mean it's not a conspiracy (although I don't think it would be a very deep one). They appoint a dude (Proenza) from the outside knowing that will upset the forecasters, then send an inspection team down to assure the forecasters that Proenza is a bad guy, so they step foreward. Then the white house outsources the NHC due to the untenable and unprofessional situation.

I personally don't believe this is the way it is, but you said "see what happens when you dont know all the facts", and I would say that goes for all of us.

did you just say outsource the NHC !! lol

yea he did.. just another person wanting to bring politics, d.c. politics into the discussion because they hate bush so badly.... just sounds rediculous.... i certainly dont agree with everything the whire house does, but to lay the blame for every little thing or big thing for that matter at their feet is just silly....


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

...it just drives me crazy with the folks here slamming the forecasters who they may not know, for things none of us know about... damn!! hope that makes sense... whats funny to me is how the folks that were claiming that it was a republican or white house conspiracy to boot him, have been somewhat silent after they found out that it was the forecasters who may have started this.. see what happens when you dont know all the facts!!!!

Just because the forecasters are "starting this" doesn't mean it's not a conspiracy (although I don't think it would be a very deep one). They appoint a dude (Proenza) from the outside knowing that will upset the forecasters, then send an inspection team down to assure the forecasters that Proenza is a bad guy, so they step foreward. Then the white house outsources the NHC due to the untenable and unprofessional situation.

I personally don't believe this is the way it is, but you said "see what happens when you dont know all the facts", and I would say that goes for all of us.

did you just say outsource the NHC !! lol

lol, I said I didn't believe that is the way it is... just an example... they could bring in Michael Brown to teach the complainers that if you have a mutiny your boss gets replaced by a worse one! I'm just agreeing none of us has a clue, but obviously it's more than the QuikScat deal that the press is fond of pinning this soley upon.[/quote]

it just made me laugh.. outsource the NHC to who?? its funny to think.. i sure would not mexico or cuba doing the forecasting.. lol no offense to anyone.. we see what can happen when you get countries with too many problems and differences .. see what happend with india and the TC that they said was just a TD when it was probably a hurricane..
i can see like some country that hates us just making crap up ..

[vacanechaser]

lol, I said I didn't believe that is the way it is... just an example... they could bring in Michael Brown to teach the complainers that if you have a mutiny your boss gets replaced by a worse one! I'm just agreeing none of us has a clue, but obviously it's more than the QuikScat deal that the press is fond of pinning this soley upon.

well thanx for clearing that up a bit... i just hate hearing it every single time...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Toadstool]

yea he did.. just another person wanting to bring politics, d.c. politics into the discussion because they hate bush so badly.... just sounds rediculous.... i certainly dont agree with everything the whire house does, but to lay the blame for every little thing or big thing for that matter at their feet is just silly....

It's not politics, just saying we don't know what's going on and offering an alternative possibility. I don't blame anyone (white house included) on the weather.

[vacanechaser]

yea he did.. just another person wanting to bring politics, d.c. politics into the discussion because they hate bush so badly.... just sounds rediculous.... i certainly dont agree with everything the whire house does, but to lay the blame for every little thing or big thing for that matter at their feet is just silly....

It's not politics, just saying we don't know what's going on and offering an alternative possibility. I don't blame anyone (white house included) on the weather.

lol... 10-4



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Terry]

they need to go find stewart and make him the director.

That's the most sensible statement I've seen in this entire thread.

[Aslkahuna]

I am talkimg strictly from a management/employee viewpoint and am not interested in how nice the guys are towards other people. The important thing here is to get things back on track. I know wherein I speak because when I took over the Fort Huachuca Met Team it was in a similar situation. The Team had rebelled against their Boss and literally forced him out and the reputation of the team among the users and, more importantly, the higher ups in our agency was lower than a snake's belly. I came in, an outsider, with a mandate to turn things around in one year or the team would be shut down and we all would be looking for work elsewhere. A year later, when the Boss visited, things had improved greatly but it wasn't easy since there were personality conflicts and a clique that I was never really able to fully resolve during my whole tenure. My mangement approach was definitely carrot and stick (a big stick).
But I did transfer some people out over the years when they couldn't get in synch with how I was running things. That is what is going to have to happen now in NHC, they need a carrot and stick person who will reward but will have no doubts about when to do some headknocking. Some one who will pitch in and help (I can tell you Helium cylinders are HEAVY)
but someone who will be the BOSS who when he says jump wants everyone to ask "how high?". Someone not afraid to get rid of those who disagree with his approach. No one in any agency is indispensible-not even hurricane specialists.

Steve

[Toadstool]

I am talkimg strictly from a management/employee viewpoint and am not interested in how nice the guys are towards other people. The important thing here is to get things back on track. I know wherein I speak because when I took over the Fort Huachuca Met Team it was in a similar situation. The Team had rebelled against their Boss and literally forced him out and the reputation of the team among the users and, more importantly, the higher ups in our agency was lower than a snake's belly. I came in, an outsider, with a mandate to turn things around in one year or the team would be shut down and we all would be looking for work elsewhere. A year later, when the Boss visited, things had improved greatly but it wasn't easy since there were personality conflicts and a clique that I was never really able to fully resolve during my whole tenure. My mangement approach was definitely carrot and stick (a big stick).
But I did transfer some people out over the years when they couldn't get in synch with how I was running things. That is what is going to have to happen now in NHC, they need a carrot and stick person who will reward but will have no doubts about when to do some headknocking. Some one who will pitch in and help (I can tell you Helium cylinders are HEAVY)
but someone who will be the BOSS who when he says jump wants everyone to ask "how high?". Someone not afraid to get rid of those who disagree with his approach. No one in any agency is indispensible-not even hurricane specialists.

Steve

Yikes, you served for about 9 years... that is a long time to have to deal with "personality conflicts"... must have been very annoying and taxing on your nerves!

[philnyc]

I am talkimg strictly from a management/employee viewpoint and am not interested in how nice the guys are towards other people. The important thing here is to get things back on track. I know wherein I speak because when I took over the Fort Huachuca Met Team it was in a similar situation. The Team had rebelled against their Boss and literally forced him out and the reputation of the team among the users and, more importantly, the higher ups in our agency was lower than a snake's belly. I came in, an outsider, with a mandate to turn things around in one year or the team would be shut down and we all would be looking for work elsewhere. A year later, when the Boss visited, things had improved greatly but it wasn't easy since there were personality conflicts and a clique that I was never really able to fully resolve during my whole tenure. My mangement approach was definitely carrot and stick (a big stick).
But I did transfer some people out over the years when they couldn't get in synch with how I was running things. That is what is going to have to happen now in NHC, they need a carrot and stick person who will reward but will have no doubts about when to do some headknocking. Some one who will pitch in and help (I can tell you Helium cylinders are HEAVY)
but someone who will be the BOSS who when he says jump wants everyone to ask "how high?". Someone not afraid to get rid of those who disagree with his approach. No one in any agency is indispensible-not even hurricane specialists.

Steve

Well, you've got the experience and you know all about egos, and this looks like a serious clashing of egos. I hope the NHC can get it together, but boy are they ALL looking AWFUL right now to the public.

[philnyc]

Now THIS is funny:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/local_news/epaper/2007/07/06/s1b_bino_0706.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=76

[Aslkahuna]

Well the personality conflicts were not with me because I would have gotten rid of the other person quickly. There was a clique on the team composed of those who were on it when it was military and it included for some time the last Military Team Chief (yes there was friction between him and me from time to time) but they to a man disliked another person to the point of shouting matches in the station (cost them both their annual bonuses and resulted in a verbal reprimand and a threat to start a UIF on them). Although the other person could be abrasive at times he was an excellent worker. A person I had a conflict with was a forecaster who didn't like the idea of me training the Met Techs to do forecasts in the field and have them do the afternoon forecast updates (we were a small Team and I wanted the Techs to be able to keep the team functioning in our absences) so I approved his transfer. The worst part came in the last years when the Teams were separated from ASL and attached to TECOM-a lot of political jockeying began around then with all of the Team Chiefs caught in the middle to some degree. One died and a a couple of others besides me retired and the stress of those last years is with me still as that's when my BP went way high and I'm now under meds and see a Cardiologist every year (that was after two Tachycardia episodes) so yes it was nerve wracking. This is why I do not take a sympathetic approach to either side in this issue-there's much that has been done wrong on both sides and Commerce and NOAA is going to have to take a close look at the situation because you have a group that is split into factions which will probably not like each other for some time if they ever do come around and whoever inherits that snake pit is going to have a thankless job and he is in all likelihood going to have to get rid of some people because there will be some who will not want to work with the others.

Steve

[Berwick Bay]

From this very long thread, the most important thing to be said, I think, is that we don't know all of the facts. What do we really know??
a. Proenza was hired in January (I believe), and as far as I know there was not a hint of dissatisfaction about his job performance for the first six months or so of his administration.
b. Everything changed with his comments about the importance of the Quikscat sat technology, and his implication that monies within the Commerce Dept could be better spent in terms of providing the necessary technology needed for the public safety during hurricane season.
c. Proenza's statements received widespread publicity and brought the spending priorities of the Dept. under greater public scrutiny.
d. Shortly thereafter occured an unannounced visit by superiors to his offices inspecting his overall job performance.
e. Within days of the inspection, Proenza's subordinates began a very unusual public campaign against their boss with accusations that can only be characterized as rather vague. (Most on this board continue to say there must have been more going on inside the NHC--but even with the statements by the forecasters, very little light has been shed on this).

So what are we left with? Many (myself included) rush to Proenza's defense. Fearful and distrusting of big govt., secrecy, corporate influence and the corruption which often accompanies it, we rush to Proenza's defense, assuming he is a heroic figure and is now become a martyr. But we really don't have all of the facts. Others with long ties to the NHC and personal friendships there, rush to the defense of the dept. assuming it has done the right thing in the interest of public safety, and that the reputation and career of this one man cannot be held to be more important than the interests of the public and the weather establishment. But they don't have all of the facts either.
I would only make one suggestion. The NHC should offer some kind of information or explanation to the public about what has happened. The NHC (and the govt.) is not supposed to be a secret society. I almost feel like we're on the outside waiting to see what color smoke is released from inside the walls of the NHC. But I'm skeptical about a greater degree of openess coming from the agency. I would expect that Proenza will not be fired but instead will leave without much comment, and we will be left with a lot of unanswered questions and doubts about what really happened.