Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Yikes. This thing has grown into a monster in the past couple of hours.....

[Aric Dunn]

sounds about right to me... wxman57

[jrod]

The 2nd scenerio would be nice.

The last couple of waves flared up around the same area only to go poof after a day or so. I'm thinking this pattern of waves going poof is about to end.

[gatorcane]

can anybody provide some historical tracks of where systems have gone in that area this time of year?

Would be interesting to see....

[DrewFL]

That ULL at 26 and 67 is not just spinning for the fun of it. It is on a gradual Westward track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Recurve]

What we're following here is a moderately strong tropical wave along about 66W-67W that is moving westward at 12-15 mph. The northernmost part of the wave is interacting with an upper-level trof that dips down to the northern Dominican Republic. It's this interaction that is producing the increased convection across the NE Caribbean. But the lower pressure is south of 15N close to 14N/67W (just southeast of the buoy). Pressures down there are 1011-1012mb, as opposed to 1014-1016mb north of PR. There's no LLC, just a wave axis.

So, what's going to happen with this system? There are a few possibilities:

1. The area of lower pressure tracks westward between 14N/16N, eventually into Nicaragua as suggested by low-level steering winds. Once it passes the upper trof axis, there won't be much to produce convergence so convection will drop off. As it moves over Central America/southern Mexico (and the southern Yucatan), convection may re-fire. Storms may develop in the BoC and track NNW much like the wave ahead of it, bringing more moisture to Texas next week. This is probably the most likely scenario.



2. Second possibility. Somehow, the convection near the NE Caribbean gets strong enough that it's able to maintain itself and is drawn into the upper-level low to the NNW. Convection persists and eventually an LLC begins to form. Tropical development could eventually occur, but a trof digging off the east U.S. coast should carry the system northward and out to sea. This is what the Canadian model has been forecasting (no other model, though).



I don't see these storms near the NE Caribbean tracking WNW toward Florida or the SE U.S., as the only reason they're there is due to the interaction with the upper-level trof axis, which isn't moving westward. Most likely, convection will continue to diminish as the wave axis tracks west, and the system could eventually bring more heavy rain to the TX coast.

WXman, great discussion. Thanks for grafx and confirming the low pressure farther south.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks Wxman57 for your input. The 1st senerio is what is concerning me. TX is very saturated as you know. With rain in the forcast here for the foreseeable future, we do not need any Tropical systems to add to this mix.

[wxman57]

That ULL at 26 and 67 is not just spinning for the fun of it. It is on a gradual Westward track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Oh, I don't know, upper lows may enjoy spinning just for the fun of it. This one, though it may have been drifting a bit west, will be on its way northward as the upper trof moving off the east U.S. coast approaches in another 24 hours or so. It's not heading toward the Gulf or the east U.S. coast.

[Berwick Bay]

From the NHC
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

I'm going to take the NHC at its word, that the wave is moving WNW. I think interaction with the ULL to the north will continue (resulting storms) as wave moves WNW. If there is to be development, I would foresee it just south of the central Cuban Coast at about 21N and 79W.

[Nimbus]

A southern track with some land interaction would not panic the oil markets. The NHC could sweep the track north as necessary if changes needed to be made once the upper air pattern is clearer.

[DESTRUCTION5]

From the NHC
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

I'm going to take the NHC at its word, that the wave is moving WNW. I think interaction with the ULL to the north will continue (resulting storms) as wave moves WNW. If there is to be development, I would foresee it just south of the central Cuban Coast at about 21N and 79W.

If you think it will keep moving WNW it will not be south of Cuba..More like the Central Bahamas..

[Berwick Bay]

Not really Destructions. Don't be deceived by some of the TS activity. As WXman pointed out, the wave axis actually extends pretty far south into the Carib. Thats where the lowest pressures are. So a move WNW, as the NHC says is happening, would take the system along the southern shores of Cuba.

[wxman57]

From the NHC
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

I'm going to take the NHC at its word, that the wave is moving WNW. I think interaction with the ULL to the north will continue (resulting storms) as wave moves WNW. If there is to be development, I would foresee it just south of the central Cuban Coast at about 21N and 79W.

If you think it will keep moving WNW it will not be south of Cuba..More like the Central Bahamas..

Actually, a WNW track from 14N/66W would take it to the southern Yucatan. The activity near the NE Yucatan is associated with the upper low/trof. It won't be able to maintain itself as the wave axis moves west.

[Sanibel]

Past point of no return

Has organized, improved shape, contracted, better curvature.

Definite TC developing here. NHC late on this.

[MGC]

I don't see anything coming of this in the short run. Give it a day or two.....MGC

[DESTRUCTION5]

From the NHC
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

I'm going to take the NHC at its word, that the wave is moving WNW. I think interaction with the ULL to the north will continue (resulting storms) as wave moves WNW. If there is to be development, I would foresee it just south of the central Cuban Coast at about 21N and 79W.

If you think it will keep moving WNW it will not be south of Cuba..More like the Central Bahamas..

Actually, a WNW track from 14N/66W would take it to the southern Yucatan. The activity near the NE Yucatan is associated with the upper low/trof. It won't be able to maintain itself as the wave axis moves west.

Im ofcourse assuming consolidation well to the north... I say if this thing goes its going to be North of P Rico...

[Complacency]

From the NHC
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

I'm going to take the NHC at its word, that the wave is moving WNW. I think interaction with the ULL to the north will continue (resulting storms) as wave moves WNW. If there is to be development, I would foresee it just south of the central Cuban Coast at about 21N and 79W.

If you think it will keep moving WNW it will not be south of Cuba..More like the Central Bahamas..

Actually, a WNW track from 14N/66W would take it to the southern Yucatan. The activity near the NE Yucatan is associated with the upper low/trof. It won't be able to maintain itself as the wave axis moves west.

I know...how about we say this tropical wave won't develop into anything significant but will continue moving west into the GOM and bring "beneficial" rain to already flooded coastal Texas??!!

There, you happy...have your rain...or move to Seattle where you will be very satisfied with frequent cloudiness and rain.

Or for you Florida people, this tropical wave will track towards Lake Okechobee!

Regardless of someone's qualifications, you can automatically sense their level of objectivity by reading where they are from...whether consciously or subconsciously, Florida, Carolina, and Gulf Coast people tend to wishcast storms into their area...most, not all.

And where am I from??? The South Pole...arrrghhhh. No tropical activity down here...no "beneficial" rains, no "convection" or mid level circulations here, and most importantly, no -removed- here.

[Aric Dunn]

like OMG .. this is so COOL......... i want to be that cool.....i live at the bottom of the ocean..
its so fun watching from down here ...

lets go play with the fish... and or sea creatures..

[wxman57]

like OMG .. this is so COOL......... i want to be that cool.....i live at the bottom of the ocean..
its so fun watching from down here ...

lets go play with the fish... and or sea creatures..

You OK, Aric?

[miamicanes177]

I believe this has developed into an invest despite not being officially named so.