Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow. Very Intense Convection. I wouldn't be surprised
if this became a depression or storm....

[vaffie]

As of an hour ago, for the first time, the pressure at the 42002 buoy is lower than those measured to it's south, north, east, and west--at 1013.9 mb.

26/19 42002 25.2 -94.4 26.6 25.0 150 21 G 25 140 27 1013.9 -1.5 28.6 2.0 7 42002

[wxman57]

As of an hour ago, for the first time, the pressure at the 42002 buoy is lower than those measured to it's south, north, east, and west--at 1013.9 mb.

26/19 42002 25.2 -94.4 26.6 25.0 150 21 G 25 140 27 1013.9 -1.5 28.6 2.0 7 42002

Pressure's up to 1014.2mb at that buoy now. Straight SE flow through the area of squalls. It'll be inland long before anything can develop.Just a rain event for TX/LA. Could be some serious flooding over the next 24 hours, and the Houston NWS has no flood watch out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF
Very Intense Widespread Convection.
I think something could form...
with the heat content and moisture
formation will depend on the shear
if shear lessens then development
is likely.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

oh ok if it moves inland then no development
but looks like a flood event for texas and
louisiana

[SETXweatherwatcher]

Y'all are making me dizzy!!!

[vaffie]

As of an hour ago, for the first time, the pressure at the 42002 buoy is lower than those measured to it's south, north, east, and west--at 1013.9 mb.

26/19 42002 25.2 -94.4 26.6 25.0 150 21 G 25 140 27 1013.9 -1.5 28.6 2.0 7 42002

Pressure's up to 1014.2mb at that buoy now. Straight SE flow through the area of squalls. It'll be inland long before anything can develop.Just a rain event for TX/LA. Could be some serious flooding over the next 24 hours, and the Houston NWS has no flood watch out.

Thanks wxman, but where does it say that. The National Buoy Data Centre is reporting 1013.9 at 1:50 pm CDT.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[jrod]

If something were to form the low would have to be on the south part of the convection to give it enough time before landfall. I think development is unlikely and if wasn't sitting over the hot water of the GoM it would be a non-issue. It really does not matter if it develops, more flooding is almost certain for Texas.

[skysummit]

Don't forget about flooding rains for much of Louisiana also since most of the moisture will be toward the north central gulf coast.

[jrod]

Don't forget about flooding rains for much of Louisiana also since most of the moisture will be toward the north central gulf coast.

very true

[wxman57]

I get the obs plotted on my workstation as soon as they hit the wires (satellite). Here's a 3pm plot/analysis. Pressure just fell at the buoy near the lower TX coast as that weak surface trof passes. It'll be inland very soon.

[jasons2k]

I think it's pretty funny how people keep saying "it doesn't matter if it develops, just a bunch of rain" yet we are up to page 13 on a non-invest, glued to S2K getting any analysis we can from the pro mets....sure it doesn't matter, not one bit

[tailgater]

57 I think I see a WEAK low(twist) east of Brownsville, just to the west of that T-storm complex and a little east of that trough on that chart. You think that it'll move NW right?

[wxman57]

57 I think I see a WEAK low(twist) east of Brownsville, just to the west of that T-storm complex and a little east of that trough on that chart. You think that it'll move NW right?

Obs suggest a very weak low in that trof I drew in on the surface analysis. Current BRO obs have a light west wind (5kts or less). It's right on the coast now and moving inland, though. About 1012mb, maybe a tad higher. No convection there. No more than a small eddy. Nothing to worry about development-wise (not that most of you here are "worried" about something developing out there!). I'm awaiting the 21Z obs to be updated on my screen. Most are in, but offshore obs come in a bit slower.

[Duddy]

Post those 21z if you can as soon as they come in.


Also, could someone please gimme a link to the GFS?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 262113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WWWW

[jasons2k]

There is a MLC showing-up on radar almost due south of Sabine Pass, about 100 NM SE of Galveston.

[ROCK]

There is a MLC showing-up on radar almost due south of Sabine Pass, about 100 NM SE of Galveston.

Just went through a rain band with very heavy rain and 30+ winds. I will give it one thing... For something nothing more than a trough of low pressure, it sure is acting like a tropical storm in some respects.

[tailgater]

I wish this whole system would go ahead and push all the way up to Kansas now.

[JonathanBelles]

To the untrained eye, I see a weak circulation, possible MLC. I think that shear maybe the inhibiting factor in this case. Lots of shear in the NE GOM. If this were to move south, it might be a different story.