INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

#241 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:26 pm

windstorm99 wrote:530 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007 Little mistake there...LOL!

, somebody was in a bit of a hurry.

Stratosphere747 · #242 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:27 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:Yep, flare up right on schedule.

Didn't you say about an hour ago that this is the normal time of day for convection to wane, and that it will re-fire tonight?

:wink:

#243 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:27 pm

530 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME FROM 530 AM TO 530 PM

Thats good work there Frankie.

Website · #244 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:28 pm

Just in time for August...

#245 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:29 pm

wow..just got home from work and looked at this...looks amazing!...finally something worth watching!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #246 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:30 pm

This system has a broad but weak low level to mid level LLC. Can it develop convection over it? Maybe but it has to fight some dry air. This season is right on the edge of out right killing all its systems, and forming a large amount of its invests. Will it go over that edge in the next few weeks...I expect it might. Heck its only normal.

Derek Ortt · #247 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:32 pm

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

a less enthusaistic outlook on the system... not ruling out development, but anything that occurs should be slower than Cadel Evans' climing on Plateau de Beille

Derek Ortt · #248 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:35 pm

what flare-up?

All I see is dissipating convection on the IR. Maybe a flare out, but no signs of a flare up yet

Ed Mahmoud · #249 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:35 pm

Quittin time, but the BAMs, ECMWF and Canadian all say Southern runner, and US is out of the woods.

Of course, it is a little early to go back to sleep. And the wave near 30º is no slouch either.

miamicanes177 · #250 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:35 pm

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for development according to the NHC so this must be watched closely.

Extremeweatherguy · #251 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:36 pm

RL3AO wrote:AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Well at least the NWS has confirmed that environmental conditions are favorable. That is a positive step toward development for sure. I guess we will just have to watch and see. I still think the best shot will be a couple of days down the road.

Derek Ortt · #252 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:37 pm

deep shear, vorticity and SST are favorable... but there are just asmany things quite unfavorable

dwg71 · #253 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:37 pm

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

This shows the dying off of convection, not the refiring. Lets see 12 hours from now what it looks like.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #254 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:37 pm

This reminds of 96L. This has to deal with dry air all around it. But as time go's by the dry air kills it. I don't expect this will have good chances of developing.

PTrackerLA · #255 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:40 pm

Well most of the convection has now faded, if we don't see a flare up overnight it could be a done deal. It looked quite healthy early this morning in comparison.

TheRingo · #256 Postby **TheRingo** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:42 pm

clear!

Extremeweatherguy · #257 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:44 pm

Cyclone1 · #258 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:44 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:Yep, flare up right on schedule.

Didn't you say about an hour ago that this is the normal time of day for convection to wane, and that it will re-fire tonight?

Exactly, an HOUR ago. :wink:

#259 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:45 pm

TheRingo wrote:clear!

Has anyone called 9-1-1!!!

Lets wait for the diurnal maximum to occur. It's a disturbance, you would expect convection to wane and then refire.

TheRingo · #260 Postby **TheRingo** » Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:47 pm

ok I'll give it 4 more hours.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/showsunmap.php

INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

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