Global Models Thread for 90L

[KFDM Meteorologist]

recurve into panhandle in this run..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

What happens is the ridge rebuilds oner the western S. Plains and there is a weakness over LA to FL. Panhandle.

['CaneFreak]

and look whats right on its heels...yet another possible TC....at 264 hours....in central atlantic...its anybody's guess now...all bets are off...

yep... that one looks to be on a course for the east coast if the trend continues... but of course, all subject to change... the second one would possibly threaten the east coast due to the first weakening the ridge or pushing it eastward...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree with you there jesse....its going to be a wait and see game...but definitely looking active over the next couple of weeks....

['CaneFreak]

An Isabel type track?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384m.gif

[Weatherfreak000]

About the only thing to note with this and the following GFS run is they are being consistent in forecasting the ridge to hold, and this being a U.S threat.


Some problems arise...


In the last run future "Dean" didn't run over all those islands, and therefore got alot stronger. In this run it does...that means there is alot of uncertainty this far out.



Also last run the storm hit Louisiana, this run it hits 300 miles to the east, very much uncertainty.

Then of course if the storm doesn't develop quickly at all, we could be looking at the chance of it moving into the Caribbean and missing this scenario entirely...

[ronjon]

That 12Z Run is similar to the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19352.asp

[Wx_Warrior]

Lets hope none of this pans out but dont think thats going to happen. Keep that thing away from dense populated areas and places that has had a ton of rain this summer.

Going to bed, models hit texas...wake up...Look out Pensacola....Long time. Get the dart board out.

[Brent]

An Isabel type track?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384m.gif

Yikes. That's another storm.

[Dean4Storms]

Thats all this DEAN needs is for a Hurricane DEAN to come visit me here in the Panhandle. Thank Goodness this will almost 100% assuredly change!!!!!

We don't need this here in the panhandle, not after Ivan, Dennis and even some Katrina affects.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The high looks to shift east that's over Texas and the S. Plains now, that's worrysome!!! It will all depend on where exactly the weakness is at that time.

[Wx_Warrior]

How lovely?

Have to stay positive. It changes run after run....I would rather a model say now its targeted on Texas instead of the last run out before it hits land.

[canegrl04]

For now,everyone from Texas to Florida needs to monitor this. We've all been clamoring for something to develope.Now it seems we should be careful what we wish for

[smw1981]

Hey Dean,

This is only my opinion, but please don't post things like "We don't need this here in the panhandle, not after Ivan, Dennis and even some Katrina affects."! Everyone on the GC can say that exact same statement, so no matter where it hits, it's hitting an area that has been affected by storms in the past few years. Louisiana and Mississippi, Alabama, and all of Florida can't take another hurricane, but that is a risk we take by living on the GOM! When people make those statements, it sets up a whole page of "Alabama can't handle this storm!", "Louisiana is still recovering from Katrina!", etc.

The only exception is some of Texas, and I don't mean to leave them out! (Nor do I hope they are the ones to see a 'cane this year!) Hopefully the GC will see another "damage free" year.

[cycloneye]

[bNEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.8N 25.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 12.08.2007 11.8N 25.1W WEAK

00UTC 13.08.2007 12.2N 28.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.08.2007 12.2N 32.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.08.2007 12.6N 35.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 13.3N 39.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 14.1N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.08.2007 15.1N 47.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2007 15.7N 51.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2007 16.5N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2007 17.6N 59.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.08.2007 19.0N 63.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY][/b]

The above is the 12z UKMET.

[storms in NC]

For now,everyone from Texas to Florida needs to monitor this. We've all been clamoring for something to develope.Now it seems we should be careful what we wish for

From the Islands to the gulf coast to the east coast.

[Cyclone1]

For now,everyone from Texas to Florida needs to monitor this. We've all been clamoring for something to develope.Now it seems we should be careful what we wish for

From the Islands to the gulf coast to the east coast.

So basically Everywhere.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

UK is a little more northerly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For now,everyone from Texas to Florida needs to monitor this. We've all been clamoring for something to develope.Now it seems we should be careful what we wish for

From the Islands to the gulf coast to the east coast.

So basically Everywhere.

pretty much. The only place you can probably say is safe right now would be the African west coast..since I highly doubt it will turn back around and hit them. lol.

[vacanechaser]

[bNEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.8N 25.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 12.08.2007 11.8N 25.1W WEAK

00UTC 13.08.2007 12.2N 28.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.08.2007 12.2N 32.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.08.2007 12.6N 35.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 13.3N 39.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 14.1N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.08.2007 15.1N 47.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2007 15.7N 51.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2007 16.5N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2007 17.6N 59.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.08.2007 19.0N 63.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY][/b]

The above is the 12z UKMET.

interesting how it takes the system north of the islands...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[windstorm99]

South florida needs to watch this closely into next weekend as the ECMWF and the GFS models try to bring this storm in our gerneral direction...

[Wx_Warrior]

LInk to the UK?