Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[RL3AO]

I guess it depends how long the inner eyewall takes to collapse.

[pojo]

What does that hail inbound mean??

This means an extremely STRONG storm with cold cloud top thunderstorms along the eye wall.

[pojo]

How much can we trust the surface wind thing on the recon?

I don't know, but alot of the SFMR reports have been coming up "suspect" and sometimes they don't correlate to the flight level wind reports. However, drospondes which are actual wind instruments taken down to the surface, didn't support it either.

the SFMR is BRAND new... give it some time... not ALL ARWOs are completely trained on the new equipment and NOT all aircrafts have the SFMR onboard. We are just learning the ropes with the new equipment.

Didn't support the SFMR suspect readings or the reasoning behind the NHC not to classify Dean as CAT5?

[CrazyC83]

How much can we trust the surface wind thing on the recon?

I don't know, but alot of the SFMR reports have been coming up "suspect" and sometimes they don't correlate to the flight level wind reports. However, drospondes which are actual wind instruments taken down to the surface, didn't support it either.

the SFMR is BRAND new... give it some time... not ALL ARWOs are completely trained on the new equipment and NOT all aircrafts have the SFMR onboard. We are just learning the ropes with the new equipment.

Didn't support the SFMR suspect readings or the reasoning behind the NHC not to classify Dean as CAT5?

That seems to be what had the NHC hold Dean at 130 kt (I would have gone 135 just to keep from going over the deep end)

[Thunder44]

How much can we trust the surface wind thing on the recon?

I don't know, but alot of the SFMR reports have been coming up "suspect" and sometimes they don't correlate to the flight level wind reports. However, drospondes which are actual wind instruments taken down to the surface, didn't support it either.

the SFMR is BRAND new... give it some time... not ALL ARWOs are completely trained on the new equipment and NOT all aircrafts have the SFMR onboard. We are just learning the ropes with the new equipment.

Didn't support the SFMR suspect readings or the reasoning behind the NHC not to classify Dean as CAT5?

I meant to say the drospondes didn't support Cat 5 intensity either.

[pojo]

Didn't support the SFMR suspect readings or the reasoning behind the NHC not to classify Dean as CAT5?

I mean to say the drospondes didn't support Cat 5 intensity either.

When the storm reaches ~930mb, the dropsonde has problems recording the 925 and/or 1000mb readings. So yes, you are correct.

[pojo]

That seems to be what had the NHC hold Dean at 130 kt (I would have gone 135 just to keep from going over the deep end)

we do what we can to make sure th NHC has the correct information from the storm. They classify the storm by using several sources, not just the aircraft.

[Pebbles]

I have a confession to make. Hurricane tracking wouldn't be the same for me if it wasn't for recon tracking and discussion. Pojo... *bows in an I'm not worthy manner* to you and all your coworkers.

[CrazyC83]

Critical number for Cat 5 is probably 155 (flight level winds of 155 kt).

[Stratosphere747]

Dean visually has never looked better. This is no doubt going to be a bumpy mission and I think we are going to see some amazing obs.

Hats off to a safe flight.

[Normandy]

Seems like the found a first wind maxima of 95 kts at flight level (80 kts surface).

[CrazyC83]

Dean visually has never looked better. This is no doubt going to be a bumpy mission and I think we are going to see some amazing obs.

Hats off to a safe flight.

I agree, this could be one critical flight here as we find out what Dean's real intensity is. I would estimate 140 kt/924mb right now.

[Thunder44]

Looks the plane will make a pass from NE to SW first. So we should no how strong the winds really are by 8pm, since they will be flying over NE Quad first.

[RL3AO]

Looks the plane will make a pass from NE to SW first. So we should no how strong the winds really are by 8pm, since they will be flying over NE Quad first.

They won't upgrade at 8 unless they get 160+ kt FL. They will wait for multiple passes.

[CrazyC83]

Seems like the found a first wind maxima of 95 kts at flight level (80 kts surface).

That is 85 kt at the surface, and really high for that far out of the storm. That suggests the wind field has expanded greatly.

[CrazyC83]

Looks the plane will make a pass from NE to SW first. So we should no how strong the winds really are by 8pm, since they will be flying over NE Quad first.

They won't upgrade at 8 unless they get 160+ kt FL. They will wait for multiple passes.

That is probably correct. If they get in the 150s, they will probably go to 135 kt (155 mph) but to go to Cat 5 would likely need strong evidence. There would probably be a special advisory if they go up to Cat 5.

[Normandy]

Seems like the found a first wind maxima of 95 kts at flight level (80 kts surface).

That is 85 kt at the surface, and really high for that far out of the storm. That suggests the wind field has expanded greatly.

Oh 85 kt? Wow.
Yes, Dean has greatly expanded his windfield today,

[Thunder44]

Looks the plane will make a pass from NE to SW first. So we should no how strong the winds really are by 8pm, since they will be flying over NE Quad first.

They won't upgrade at 8 unless they get 160+ kt FL. They will wait for multiple passes.

That is probably correct. If they get in the 150s, they will probably go to 135 kt (155 mph) but to go to Cat 5 would likely need strong evidence. There would probably be a special advisory if they go up to Cat 5.

All they need is to find one report of FL 155kts or more and they can upgrade. Unless they other reasons for not upgrading like they did early this morning.

[superfly]

Looks like there's 3 wind maxima, sorta like what Katrina had at landfall. I doubt the peak wind will be as high as we saw earlier but the wind field has expanded greatly.

[wxwatcher91]

hurricane force winds now extend out at least 100 miles