New storm on the horizon??

[cycloneye]

I wont be surpised if it gets the invest grade sometime tommorow if the organization continues to improve in the comming 6-12 hours.

[Bgator]

So who here ACTUALLY thinks this will develop within the next 2 days? Invest tomorrow?

[jhamps10]

So who here ACTUALLY thinks this will develop within the next 2 days? Invest tomorrow?

count me in that vote. Invest tomorrow, TD6 by tuesday evening.

[JtSmarts]

The 2007 season is surely underway now, we may not have a break in activity for the next few weeks or so.

[Sanibel]

And to make the 1935 analogy worse, NAM makes it a tiny hurricane going under a ridge towards the Keys!

[Tropics Guy]

Think it will be an invest tomorrow if it starts organizing better. With high pressure in place, this will head towards the EC of florida by the weekend as somekind of organized system IMO.

[CourierPR]

The NHC calls for slow development, but this thing appears to be rapidly organizing.

[boca]

I'm on the band wagon to on this possible invest which I personally think will be tomorrow in the morning. Also I don't think it will turn north because of the high pressure strenghtening.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like a 150mph fly in the ointment, to me, WSW of that disturbance.

I don't think Dean would effect this TOO much unless it tried to take the same path as Dean. I"m sure this will go North of Dean since it's quite aways North of it already. Even though I've screamed "Mexico, Mexico" since Dean started, I don't see that with this storm, too far North to be headed to Mexico...Other then that I can't see where it's going yet though as I haven't looked at future maps. I do think this will develop though, even if it it's just to a tropical storm or minimal hurricane.

[tailgater]

This one will need to be watched closely, but I would not expect much development for the next 48 hrs. It is under an upper level low right now
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
moving to fast and probably will be near 20mph for a couple of days
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
shear is a problem right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
So I'll say TD on Wensday in the Bahamas

[HURAKAN]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

If you do a loop of the last few hours the area goes from nothing to an area of disturbed weather. Lets see what DMAX bring us.

[ConvergenceZone]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200318
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO
25 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$



We may have game here folks....We'll see.

The only thing is, with this speed it's moving, not sure if it will have much time to get its act together since it's not even a depression yet....Although unlike Dean, this ain't going to Mexico....

[PTrackerLA]

There appears to be hints of some cyclonic turning with this whole area. NHC is mentioning the possibility of development so I'd expect to see an Invest by tomorrow unless it poofs.

[ExBailbonds]

Looking better tonight. I also think it is healthy enough to make it an invest sometime tomorrow. Lots of warm water in the bahamas. I also think the ridge will remain strong and steer it west. In our favor though dont think it would become a major cane.

[umguy]

I say invest by tomorrow. Let the fun time begin in SOFL.

[hurricanetrack]

What is odd is that none of the models are very bullish on this developing. Few models show it ever really closing off too. The 00Z NAM even has little out there- and it can really spin up some jokers once in a while. So what gives? With Dean, it was almost a sure thing but with this wave, I am not convniced it will develop. I suppose it could but geez, global model support would lend credibility to this getting going.

[HURAKAN]

Looks similar to Danny in 2003 that basically came out of nowhere.

[chadtm80]

What is odd is that none of the models are very bullish on this developing. Few models show it ever really closing off too. The 00Z NAM even has little out there- and it can really spin up some jokers once in a while. So what gives? With Dean, it was almost a sure thing but with this wave, I am not convniced it will develop. I suppose it could but geez, global model support would lend credibility to this getting going.

Models certainly didnt jump all over Erin though either if I remember correctly?

[hurricanetrack]

Just looking at the new GFS coming in. Out to 90 hours and there is nothing there- the system seems to dry up as if someone sprinkled alum all over it. So it will just go away?

Yet- the TWO says slow development is possible. I know I am reading too much in to this, but with no global model support (on a robust system or even a real depression for that matter) wouldn't the TWO say "development, if any, is expected to be slow"? We have even seen blobs like this and the NHC will say something like "associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low" and then a line about slow development. Anyhow, just wondering what the deal is. Perhaps, and this is just a plain ole perhaps, this system will be quite small and not as easy to pick out in the global models just yet. Oh well, wait and see. Just vexing as to why the same GFS that nailed Dean like 9 days out it not showing diddly for this.

[PTrackerLA]

Just looking at the new GFS coming in. Out to 90 hours and there is nothing there- the system seems to dry up as if someone sprinkled alum all over it. So it will just go away?

Yet- the TWO says slow development is possible. I know I am reading too much in to this, but with no global model support (on a robust system or even a real depression for that matter) wouldn't the TWO say "development, if any, is expected to be slow"? We have even seen blobs like this and the NHC will say something like "associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low" and then a line about slow development. Anyhow, just wondering what the deal is. Perhaps, and this is just a plain ole perhaps, this system will be quite small and not as easy to pick out in the global models just yet. Oh well, wait and see. Just vexing as to why the same GFS that nailed Dean like 9 days out it not showing diddly for this.

That's a good point. But i reckon that there have been many storms develop that the models didn't really forecast initially. Here's hoping that nothing much comes out of this because it looks like it would organize near the Bahamas and that's where two infamous 2005 storms got their act together.