ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[hurricanetrack]

SOI not tanking, 90 day is only -5.3 and we have another west moving TC (in the making) in the east Pac. All seems to me to point in the direction of no El Nino to speak of in coming weeks. And if you look at 2009 compared to now on this date, it is obvious that 2009 was warmer, broader in scope.

[Ntxw]

SOI not tanking, 90 day is only -5.3 and we have another west moving TC (in the making) in the east Pac. All seems to me to point in the direction of no El Nino to speak of in coming weeks. And if you look at 2009 compared to now on this date, it is obvious that 2009 was warmer, broader in scope.

Actually if you look at MEI index (even better than ONI for closer range since ONI is looking back 3 months and MEI is bimonthly) it is actually in par with both 2002 and 2009. Not exact but general numbers. JJ will be higher than 2009 as that year had a cooling that month.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

[Ntxw]

As I posted that ^ the MEI update for June/July came out today to 1.139. That is well over El Nino territory. In comparison 2009 did not reach over 1 MEI threshold until Sept/Oct, we are several months ahead. Continue to believe CPC will classify JJA as the start of Nino.

[SoupBone]

SOI not tanking,

I was referring to daily drops, I understand the 90 day average. And daily's were tanking.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the OLR MJO graphic that shows the blue and green colors? I lost that one in the new PC change.

[SoupBone]

Does anyone has the OLR MJO graphic that shows the blue and green colors? I lost that one in the new PC change.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the OLR MJO graphic that shows the blue and green colors? I lost that one in the new PC change.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

http://i49.tinypic.com/20pc0th.png
http://i45.tinypic.com/20797rd.png

That is it,thank you.

[SoupBone]

Looks like that uptick was very temporary as we saw negative yesterday with todays value at -16.27.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center August Update

Ntxw what do you think of this monthly update?

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during July 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Reflecting this warmth, most of the weekly Niño index values remained near or greater than +0.5oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) also remained elevated during the month (Fig. 3), consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Although sub-surface and surface temperatures were above average, many aspects of the tropical atmosphere were inconsistent with El Niño conditions. Upper-level and low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, while tropical convection remained enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). However, convection increased near and just west of the International Date Line, which may eventually reflect a progression towards El Niño. The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions.

Nearly all of the dynamical models favor the onset of El Niño beginning in July - September 2012 (Fig. 6). As in previous months, several statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of the year, but the average statistical forecast of Niño-3.4 increased compared to last month. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Ntxw]

They've been pretty right so far so no reason to disagree . SOI will plunge several times this month, with the latest numbers being so. Rest of August and early Sept still has a window for tropical activity, but after that looks like things could level off. Westerlies are on the move from the international dateline.

[Ntxw]

SOI plunge for this coming week has begun (past several days was not the big one). Impressive dives with -30 or more will occur. Both 30 and 90 day SOI will crash lower than -8. Through the end of this month both averages could end up -10 or more. Equatorial Pacific is lined up with convection and kelvin waves as in nearly every El Nino. North American weather pattern is now reflecting the Nino with +PNA taking hold and cold fronts arriving well before fall. If nothing of importance (in terms of ACE) forms within the next 2 weeks (my guess) in the Atlantic basin, we can blame the growing influence of El Nino.

Average for last 30 days -6.5

Average for last 90 days -7.4

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -19.8

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, shall we expect more warming in tomorrows update?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, shall we expect more warming in tomorrows update?

3.4 and 4 warmed again last week. 1+2 and 3 remained steady maybe even a little bit of cooling. So in general I think there could be slight warming tomorrow. It is the next week when the MJO/SOI will have completed it's current cycle and have possible bigger warming numbers.

[NDG]

I on the other hand think that Nino 3.4 remained at least steady last week, with a slight cool down on its eastern section.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, shall we expect more warming in tomorrows update?

3.4 and 4 warmed again last week. 1+2 and 3 remained steady maybe even a little bit of cooling. So in general I think there could be slight warming tomorrow. It is the next week when the MJO/SOI will have completed it's current cycle and have possible bigger warming numbers.

Cool, thanks!

[NDG]

I on the other hand think that Nino 3.4 remained at least steady last week, with a slight cool down on its eastern section.

Never mind, over the last few days the western portion of Nino 3.4 saw a nice warm up after remaining steady during the previous days.

[cycloneye]

The text of the 8/13/12 CPC update will be released after 10:00 AM EDT,but the graphic updates before than time and Nino 3.4 warmed up. Is interesting to note that Nino 1+2 and 3 continue to cool a little bit.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, it does appear that a central based Nino is becoming more likely. Longer range model all favor this idea. I made a post about it over in the Tx winter thread. Hopefully the idea holds true because it favors a cooler/wetter North America to ease drought. And since 1+2/3 are cooling a bit it's becoming less likely we'll have a strong Nino. Majority of central based Ninos have been moderate.

Edit: Wow this week's CPC update warmed more than I thought

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 8/13/12 Update

Yes,this is a wow as Nino 3.4 warmed up bigtime to +0.8C from what it was last week at +0.6C

Is interesting to note that Nino 1+2 is down to 0.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[dexterlabio]

so a Modoki El Nino is likely to exist, like the one in 2004?