2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Only going to say= September is September.

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, I took a break from tracking the tropics on the first day of this month with there not really being anything to watch at that time.

Merely 6 days later, here I am, watching the news headline that there are now multiple areas in the Atlantic that are trying to develop (all of which have moderate or higher chances of forming). So...I'm back. Time to begin tracking 2024 again.

Anyways, my point is...September is peak hurricane season for a reason. What we saw with Beryl was highly unusual, but I sincerely had my doubts that that was going to be the only major storm of the season and that this season was going to basically wind down in mid-August. With models suggesting that at least one of the AOIs in the MDR could become a decent hurricane....we're definitely not done with this season. Looks like it has more in store for us. We'll see how the story unfolds next.

[chaser1]

In a nut shell, I think the balance of this season will display a sputtering recovery that might approach our yearly normal by the end of September and October. The net outcome will probably settle close to normal in terms of storm numbers and major hurricanes. I am skeptical to believe that whatever has plagued the Atlantic during the last month will suddenly self-correct over a few days. Thats the reason why I remain reluctant to assume that just because global models are becoming a little more deliberate & consistent, that the environment has quickly become quite favorable for genesis.. At the same time it just seems more reasonable then not, to think that a slowly shifting background state, a slight ebbing closer to La Nina, and some eventuality of the MJO slowly shifting to a less unfavorable position would permit a tropical basin during its peak climo cycle to produce some storms. Everything I thought I knew regarding locations of genesis, predominant storm tracks or largely higher storm intensities for the remainder of the season feels like a crap shoot however.

Maybe the light switch really WILL turn on in the next few days but I don't think it's going to quite feel like it. Instead it may feel more like a reluctant jump start of an old barn kept Chevy that hasn't been started in years. It's still alive and the car makes it to the street but that engine is popping & sputtering like it's starved for higher higher octane.

[SFLcane]

Really feel we could be in for one heck of an Oct in the caribbean as it continues to be illustrated by the very long gefs. We shall see!

[tolakram]

We talked about epic bust, but what if this season ends up being close to the predicted numbers? I don't think it will, but the models have had such a tough time predicting just 5 days out I'm not sure if we'll even be able to predict an uptick in activity until it happens.

[SFLcane]

We talked about epic bust, but what if this season ends up being close to the predicted numbers? I don't think it will, but the models have had such a tough time predicting just 5 days out I'm not sure if we'll even be able to predict an uptick in activity until it happens.

Sure thing i agree 100% for me i careless about ace or numbers predicted its all about " impacts " which very storm so far this season has had.

[toad strangler]

We talked about epic bust, but what if this season ends up being close to the predicted numbers? I don't think it will, but the models have had such a tough time predicting just 5 days out I'm not sure if we'll even be able to predict an uptick in activity until it happens.

Sure thing i agree 100% for me i careless about ace or numbers predicted its all about " impacts " which very storm so far this season has had.

Yes sir. Looking at the possible THIRD hurricane landfall in the CONUS now with SIX. Plus Ernesto gave PR and Bermuda a good scare. So impacts have been, and look to be, pretty impactful.

[SFLcane]

We talked about epic bust, but what if this season ends up being close to the predicted numbers? I don't think it will, but the models have had such a tough time predicting just 5 days out I'm not sure if we'll even be able to predict an uptick in activity until it happens.

Sure thing i agree 100% for me i careless about ace or numbers predicted its all about " impacts " which very storm so far this season has had.

Yes sir. Looking at the possible THIRD hurricane landfall in the CONUS now with SIX. Plus Ernesto gave PR and Bermuda a good scare. So impacts have been, and look to be, pretty impactful.

Likely more to come long way to go in this hurricane season.

[SFLcane]

Really feel we could be in for one heck of an Oct in the caribbean as it continues to be illustrated by the very long gefs. We shall see!

https://i.postimg.cc/KjG2qyxn/gs.png

Look at the NW caribbean. Lets hope nothing gets going down there.

[chaser1]

Really feel we could be in for one heck of an Oct in the caribbean as it continues to be illustrated by the very long gefs. We shall see!

https://i.postimg.cc/KjG2qyxn/gs.png

Look at the NW caribbean. Lets hope nothing gets going down there.

https://i.postimg.cc/kgknvZZ5/nnn.jpg

YUP! And in spite of the abbreviated season, "something" is gonna come out of that boiler plate south of Cuba before it's all said and done.

[chaser1]

We talked about epic bust, but what if this season ends up being close to the predicted numbers? I don't think it will, but the models have had such a tough time predicting just 5 days out I'm not sure if we'll even be able to predict an uptick in activity until it happens.

Case in point; just take a look at the Atlantic basin this morning. None may ultimately develop but 3 tropical cyclones could just as well. In fact, one not even mentioned by NHC at around 52W could before those being tracked further east. I guess a sudden flurry would truly verify the switch has flipped.

[Teban54]

Suddenly, the tropical Atlantic doesn't feel bone dry and stable anymore. In addition to Francine, there is a chain of convectively active disturbances and vigorous vorts in the MDR, from Africa all the way to Lesser Antilles.

If anything, even if none of them develop -- which is a big if -- it might be more aptly blamed on too many disturbances, rather than too few thunderstorms. It's possible that because everyone wants to develop (with the exception of the wave near Lesser Antilles), nothing can consolidate. This is what models runs have sometimes shown for a few (occasionally all) of the MDR disturbances.

Reminder: We're still in a suppressed MJO phase.

[aspen]

Suddenly, the tropical Atlantic doesn't feel bone dry and stable anymore. In addition to Francine, there is a chain of convectively active disturbances and vigorous vorts in the MDR, from Africa all the way to Lesser Antilles.

If anything, even if none of them develop -- which is a big if -- it might be more aptly blamed on too many disturbances, rather than too few thunderstorms. It's possible that because everyone wants to develop (with the exception of the wave near Lesser Antilles), nothing can consolidate. This is what models runs have sometimes shown for a few (occasionally all) of the MDR disturbances.

Reminder: We're still in a suppressed MJO phase.

https://i.postimg.cc/0QhTMKzn/goes16-truecolor-atl.gif

Yeah it’s still a tangled mess out east, probably because the monsoon/AEJ is still very strong. Not sure if we’ll get anything significant out of those disturbances because either they fade out and die or go pretty north very quickly on the models.

[Teban54]

Suddenly, the tropical Atlantic doesn't feel bone dry and stable anymore. In addition to Francine, there is a chain of convectively active disturbances and vigorous vorts in the MDR, from Africa all the way to Lesser Antilles.

If anything, even if none of them develop -- which is a big if -- it might be more aptly blamed on too many disturbances, rather than too few thunderstorms. It's possible that because everyone wants to develop (with the exception of the wave near Lesser Antilles), nothing can consolidate. This is what models runs have sometimes shown for a few (occasionally all) of the MDR disturbances.

Reminder: We're still in a suppressed MJO phase.

https://i.postimg.cc/0QhTMKzn/goes16-truecolor-atl.gif

Yeah it’s still a tangled mess out east, probably because the monsoon/AEJ is still very strong. Not sure if we’ll get anything significant out of those disturbances because either they fade out and die or go pretty north very quickly on the models.

AEJ-induced shear in the eastern Atlantic has decreased from 40 kts earlier to 0-20 kt today, however (with the exception of a small blob that may be wave-induced). Whether that's solely due to the emergence of the wave today remains to be seen; however, models generally show 0-20 kts of shear moving forward, and the "zero-shear zone" also moves south to be directly within the MDR.

[Ubuntwo]

In addition to being climo peak, it appears that today this season's ACE total will be overtaken by the 1991-2020 average.

[MarioProtVI]

In addition to being climo peak, it appears that today this season's ACE total will be overtaken by the 1991-2020 average.

For a few days and then it looks like it will jump back above if the 30/70 pans out as a long tracker.

[SFLcane]

[Hammy]

In addition to being climo peak, it appears that today this season's ACE total will be overtaken by the 1991-2020 average.

For a few days and then it looks like it will jump back above if the 30/70 pans out as a long tracker.

Models have been backing away hard from development

[chaser1]

https://i.postimg.cc/ry02bpLw/ggg.gif

Long way off but that says Florida Panhandle all over it. One thing for certain is that the GOM seems to be the hot spot this season.

[MarioProtVI]

In addition to being climo peak, it appears that today this season's ACE total will be overtaken by the 1991-2020 average.

For a few days and then it looks like it will jump back above if the 30/70 pans out as a long tracker.

Models have been backing away hard from development

It’s far more likely they are struggling to resolve the MT breakdown and those that are backing off on development are in fact just stringing the system out way too fast. In fact, the latest 12z EURO still shows a strong system, and the ICON (which correctly nailed Francine FWIW) also still shows a strengthening tropical storm heading west. GFS has a notorious string out bias in cases like these so I’m inclined to ignore the oper and pay more attention to the ensembles which are far more active.