2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

06z GFS still fantasy land gets tangled in CA which off course is certainly a possible outcome.

[SFLcane]

EPS still 100% epac.

[SFLcane]

00z Canadian...

[SouthFLTropics]

The overnight GFS-Para from 00z goes bonkers with no less than three new storms, two of which originate around Jamaica and another from the MDR.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Long-range 06z GFS-P brings whatever develops in the Caribbean northward into FL.

[SconnieCane]

EPS still 100% epac.

EPS is still waiting for Laura to hit Galveston/Houston.

[toad strangler]

Ahhhhhh the perils of tracking long range model runs It's like throwing a whiffle ball into a 50 mph wind. Every pitch is gonna do something else.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ahhhhhh the perils of tracking long range model runs It's like throwing a whiffle ball into a 50 mph wind. Every pitch is gonna do something else.

I agree with you to a certain extent. The devil is always in the details and trying to pinpoint an exact storm or track in the long range is futile. However, given the trends in the models, I believe that is is becoming increasingly likely that something spins up in the Central/Western Caribbean starting around the 1st of October.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SouthFLTropics]

Ahhhhhh the perils of tracking long range model runs It's like throwing a whiffle ball into a 50 mph wind. Every pitch is gonna do something else.

I agree with you to a certain extent. The devil is always in the details and trying to pinpoint an exact storm or track in the long range is futile. However, given the trends in the models, I believe that is is becoming increasingly likely that something spins up in the Central/Western Caribbean starting around the 1st of October.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aspen]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

[SFLcane]

EPS weeklies do show a general large-scale pattern favorable in early October. Just remains to be seen what comes out of it.

[Shell Mound]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

[DestinHurricane]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

I wouldn't call a seaaon with 4 hurricane landfalls on the CONUS unimpressive. Saying this season has been unimpressive besides Laura and Teddy is like saying "we were undefeated except for the 4 games we lost" Not only Laura and Teddy but also Hanna, Isaias, Sally, and Paulette. Very impressive season.

Back on topic, IMO the question is not how strong a Caribbean storm will be but IF it happens. I doubt we see a short lived TS. I think it's major or nothing. The setup we are seeing is the most favorable since 2016, which had matthew. More favorable than 2017, 18, 19. Now more ensembles are jumping on board like Canadian. The setup that models are showing with this La Nina AND a hyperactive season is a bad combination.

[CyclonicFury]

The CV season may not be completely over just yet. The 00z EPS has ~15 members stronger than 1004 mb, with a few members even becoming powerful hurricanes over the eastern MDR in October. The GFS has also been on and off with MDR development in early October.

[Shell Mound]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

I wouldn't call a seaaon with 4 hurricane landfalls on the CONUS unimpressive. Saying this season has been unimpressive besides Laura and Teddy is like saying "we were undefeated except for the 4 games we lost" Not only Laura and Teddy but also Hanna, Isaias, Sally, and Paulette. Very impressive season.

Back on topic, IMO the question is not how strong a Caribbean storm will be but IF it happens. I doubt we see a short lived TS. I think it's major or nothing. The setup we are seeing is the most favorable since 2016, which had matthew. More favorable than 2017, 18, 19. Now more ensembles are jumping on board like Canadian. The setup that models are showing with this La Nina AND a hyperactive season is a bad combination.

I was referring to the low ratio of major long-trackers to total NS, as well as the low absolute number of MH. Yes, the season has set a number of impressive records, but has severely underperformed in terms of ACE, especially in the deep tropics. Certainly, seasonal ACE is technically slightly above average as of now, but one would have expected much more to have been generated. Clearly conditions have not been as conducive as we have been led to believe—the question is just what has kept a proverbial lid on MH, primarily in the MDR/Caribbean. Personally, I think vertical wind shear has been higher than the official charts have been indicating all along, thereby implying more sinking air and TUTT activity during the peak of the season. Also, many of the systems have just been too broad to organise rapidly, given the high amplitude and latitude of AEWs in ‘20. Finally, I think the relatively warmer subtropics vs. the deep tropics tended to suppress convection somewhat farther south. As far as the models are concerned, I will start to seriously consider development once the EPS is on board, however poorly it has handled TCG thus far, since the other guidance tends to develop monsoonal troughs too quickly, especially over the climatologically favoured W Caribbean during October.

[cheezyWXguy]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

I think that dearth of activity in the Caribbean this season is what makes this concerning. Resources are untapped, and this is the time of year when a monsoonal gyre actually makes sense. I am far from jumping on the bandwagon at this point, but I am more of the point of view that either the system will be strong or there won’t be any system at all. Even if shear is marginal, ohc at those levels should be noted and that front hanging up in the gulf could provide extra upper level divergence for a northern outflow channel

[aspen]

The CV season may not be completely over just yet. The 00z EPS has ~15 members stronger than 1004 mb, with a few members even becoming powerful hurricanes over the eastern MDR in October. The GFS has also been on and off with MDR development in early October.

It would be totally 2020 to have a long-tracking MDR-born hurricane in late September and/or October. However, it has happened before, including Jig ‘50 and Isidore ‘96.

[SFLcane]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

Um what????! That’s ridiculous there has been 9th US tropical storm or hurricane landfalls in 2020, which i might add ties a single-year record. I for one think there will be several TS in the western part of the basin the EPS weeklies show a general large-scale pattern favorable for early October combined with a -ENSO and a La Niña I say those are good odds.

[CyclonicFury]

The CV season may not be completely over just yet. The 00z EPS has ~15 members stronger than 1004 mb, with a few members even becoming powerful hurricanes over the eastern MDR in October. The GFS has also been on and off with MDR development in early October.

It would be totally 2020 to have a long-tracking MDR-born hurricane in late September and/or October. However, it has happened before, including Jig ‘50 and Isidore ‘96.

The EPS could be onto something, the past two years we have seen a tropical cyclone in the eastern MDR in October (Nadine in 2018, and TD 15L in 2019). Both formed much farther east than typical of October. Perhaps the strong West African Monsoon may have something to do with it?

[robbielyn]

A tropical wave developing a little before the LAs in very late September and moving into a potential favorable Caribbean for early October...I’m getting a bit of Matthew vibes from the combined CMC/UKMET/GFS-Para ensemble solutions.

Late-season activity in the Caribbean has been consistently underperforming since 2017, South Florida has managed to dodge numerous major-hurricane bullets since Irma, and this year’s ACE is subpar relative to overall activity and expectation(s). Most storms this year have been relatively unimpressive, aside from some exceptions, mainly Laura and Teddy. Until we have a major hurricane within seventy-two hours of landfall, I’m going to be quite bearish in regard to current long-range projections, especially as the GEFS tends to be too aggressive with monsoonal circulations. At this range all one can say is that the prospects for at least a short-lived TS in the western Caribbean may be enhanced. I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t see a major hurricane in the western Caribbean during October, given recent trends in that region since ‘17 and the relative dearth of (long-lived) intense storms vs. overall activity observed thus far in ‘20. Additionally, aside from Nana and Teddy, most of this year’s hurricanes have peaked outside the deep tropics, with the eastern MDR and Caribbean being “dead zones” vs. the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, both of which are situated in the subtropics.

huh? no activity since 2017? No majors since Irma which was in 2017? What about Hurricane Michael Oct 7th 2018 CAT 4 almost 5 Panama City and Mexico Beach?