2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s how I see it for the most part

Amateurs tend to hug the models more which leads to lead towards the bearish side

Pro Mets tend to use the meteorological side of things and look more at real time data and what the indices are doing which leads more toward fact

The fact that pro Mets are saying buckle up especially the experts at the NHC and crownweather tells me the people on the bearish side aren’t looking at all the data and just what models tell them

Also it means starting next week things could start to get ugly from the 25th of this month until October which is a scary thought And there could be multiple landfalls of strong hurricanes on the US coast

This is why I posted the CFS from time to time, it actually gives a good idea of the general activity even if you can't use it to say this storm will occur on this day, and this is pretty on par with what it's been showing. It never at any point showed a very active August, but likewise has been consistently showing quite a bit of activity (and trending busier) starting between the last week of August and the first week of September and shows a lot of back to back storms developing and long trackers lasting into early October after that point.

The CFS sniffed out Isiais before any model eve as far back as June to when and where it actually happened so it may be the go to right now

[NotSparta]

Not sure where this would belong, but I think this is a good summary of most of the season so far

Credit to typhonium

[toad strangler]

Not sure where this would belong, but I think this is a good summary of most of the season so far

Credit to typhonium

https://i.imgur.com/Uh8nP31.jpg

2013 grams hahahahahahahah

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1294438752052486145

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1294433921887809537

[gatorcane]

The indicators I am looking at to me still suggest we could see a progressive pattern over North America and Western Atlantic for peak months August - October rather than a semi-permanent anomalously strong Bermuda High as we saw more of in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

1) A combination of warmer to much warmer than normal waters in the region around Bermuda, off the east coast of the US, and off the coast of SE Canada which could lead to more rising motion and lowering or pressure which would help decrease the strength of the Bermuda High.
2) Much warmer than normal waters in the Northern Pacific which could help intensify northern and mid-latitude disturbances from the Pacific traveling along the jet stream over North America.
3) Possible indicators a fall pattern over North America may start a bit early this year. We have yet another anomalously strong trough over the eastern CONUS expected to develop with anomalously low 500mb heights all the way down into the southern Gulf of Mexico which is rare to see this time of year. Further runs of the globals models, particularly the GFS and GEFS, suggest a series of future troughs sweeping across the northern US and southern Canada. The pattern is already looking like hints of fall, below normal temperatures may be possible at times for the Eastern US for the next 10+ days

[Spacecoast]

Here’s how I see it for the most part
...
Also it means starting next week things could start to get ugly from the 25th of this month until October which is a scary thought And there could be multiple landfalls of strong hurricanes on the US coast

From CSU / GeoGraphics Laboratory August 2020 Forecast

Probability of at least one Major Hurricanes making landfall:
Entire U.S. coastline (Regions 1-11): 74%
Caribbean: 63%
U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (Regions 5-11): 49%
Gulf Coast (Regions 1-4): 48%

Probabilty of 1 or more Hurricanes (Region)
Region 3(N.O. to Pensacola): 52.2%
Region 8 (Charleston to Hatteras): 47.1%
Region 1(Browsnesvile to Houston): 46.4%
Region 6(Key West to Jupiter): 45.2%
Region 4(Apalachicola): 24.1%
Region 7(St. Luccie to Glunn, Ga.): 14.7%
Region 5 (Naples to Tampa): 14.3%

Probabilty of 1 or more Intense Hurricanes (Region)
Region 3(N.O. to Pensacola): 28.3%
Region 6(Key West to Jupiter): 24.1%
Region 1(Browsnesvile to Houston): 21.8%
Region 8 (Charleston to Hatteras): 16.2%
Region 5 (Naples to Tampa): 8.2%
Region 7(St. Luccie to Glunn, Ga.): 4.3%
Region 4(Apalachicola): 2.9%

Probability of 1 or more Hurricanes (County)
Key West / Monroe: 28.2%
Miami- Dade: 10.5%
Charleston: 10.0%
Hatteras / Dare: 8.4%
Palm Beach: 7.7%
Brownsville / Cameron: 6.6%
Houston / Harris: 4.9%
Appalachcola / Franklin: 4.9%

Probability of 1 or more Intense Hurricanes (County)
Key West / Monroe: 14.1%
Miami- Dade: 4.9%
Palm Beach: 3.6%
Charleston: 2.9%
Brownsville / Cameron: 2.7%
Hatteras / Dare: 2.4%

[TheProfessor]

The indicators I am looking at to me still suggest we could see a progressive pattern for peak months August - October rather than a semi-permanent anomalously strong Bermuda High as we saw more of in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

1) A combination of warmer to much warmer than normal waters in the region around Bermuda, off the east coast of the US, and off the coast of SE Canada which could lead to more rising motion and lowering or pressure which would help decrease the strength of the Bermuda High.
2) Much warmer than normal waters in the Northern Pacific which could help intensify northern and mid-latitude disturbances from the Pacific traveling along the jet stream over North America.
3) Possible indicators a fall pattern over North America may start a bit early this year. We have yet another anomalously strong trough over the eastern CONUS expected to develop with anomalously low 500mb heights all the way down into the southern Gulf of Mexico which is rare to see this time of year. Further runs of the globals models, particularly the GFS and GEFS, suggest a series of future troughs sweeping across the northern US and southern Canada. The pattern is already looking like hints of fall, below normal temperatures may be possible at times for the Eastern US for the next 10+ days

A progressive pattern does not mean that the U.S can't get hit, in fact if we had an amplified trough off the east coast that was being blocked that would be better for the U.S as any storm that approaches would be swiftly swept northward up to the north Atlantic. In a progressive patter timing becomes critical. If a storm arrives as a trough is moving through the plains then that puts the U.S at risk. If a trough moves out too quickly a storm could get trapped underneath the ridge. It's a very fragile pattern during hurricane season and even a small error in modeling could be the difference of a safe re-curve or an Irma like track.

[gatorcane]

The indicators I am looking at to me still suggest we could see a progressive pattern for peak months August - October rather than a semi-permanent anomalously strong Bermuda High as we saw more of in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

1) A combination of warmer to much warmer than normal waters in the region around Bermuda, off the east coast of the US, and off the coast of SE Canada which could lead to more rising motion and lowering or pressure which would help decrease the strength of the Bermuda High.
2) Much warmer than normal waters in the Northern Pacific which could help intensify northern and mid-latitude disturbances from the Pacific traveling along the jet stream over North America.
3) Possible indicators a fall pattern over North America may start a bit early this year. We have yet another anomalously strong trough over the eastern CONUS expected to develop with anomalously low 500mb heights all the way down into the southern Gulf of Mexico which is rare to see this time of year. Further runs of the globals models, particularly the GFS and GEFS, suggest a series of future troughs sweeping across the northern US and southern Canada. The pattern is already looking like hints of fall, below normal temperatures may be possible at times for the Eastern US for the next 10+ days

A progressive pattern does not mean that the U.S can't get hit, in fact if we had an amplified trough off the east coast that was being blocked that would be better for the U.S as any storm that approaches would be swiftly swept northward up to the north Atlantic. In a progressive patter timing becomes critical. If a storm arrives as a trough is moving through the plains then that puts the U.S at risk. If a trough moves out too quickly a storm could get trapped underneath the ridge. It's a very fragile pattern during hurricane season and even a small error in modeling could be the difference of a safe re-curve or an Irma like track.

Thanks for the explanation and I agree it does not but what I think is that we are less likely to see something like an Irma-like scenario or 2004-type tracks into Florida from the east. That same progressive pattern and trough could indeed recurve something into Florida from the south which is something that is entirely possible especially if we get some storms that get into the Western or NW Caribbean particularly late season.

Here is the latest SST anomaly map. Really has warmed in that area of the northern Western Atlantic:

[SFLcane]

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1294433921887809537?s=20

And one more time.

This wave if it tries to develop steering looks quite dangerous for the US. Not recurving earlier

[StruThiO]

Still in the suppressed MJO btw.

[SFLcane]

The indicators I am looking at to me still suggest we could see a progressive pattern over North America and Western Atlantic for peak months August - October rather than a semi-permanent anomalously strong Bermuda High as we saw more of in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

1) A combination of warmer to much warmer than normal waters in the region around Bermuda, off the east coast of the US, and off the coast of SE Canada which could lead to more rising motion and lowering or pressure which would help decrease the strength of the Bermuda High.
2) Much warmer than normal waters in the Northern Pacific which could help intensify northern and mid-latitude disturbances from the Pacific traveling along the jet stream over North America.
3) Possible indicators a fall pattern over North America may start a bit early this year. We have yet another anomalously strong trough over the eastern CONUS expected to develop with anomalously low 500mb heights all the way down into the southern Gulf of Mexico which is rare to see this time of year. Further runs of the globals models, particularly the GFS and GEFS, suggest a series of future troughs sweeping across the northern US and southern Canada. The pattern is already looking like hints of fall, below normal temperatures may be possible at times for the Eastern US for the next 10+ days

Actually the euro weeklies have a very dangerous setup in place. Hints of fall?

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1294468817704214528

[aspen]

Still in the suppressed MJO btw.

https://i.imgur.com/FZLrCek.png

https://imgur.com/b1oZHvb

That is an absolute monster of an AEW. If it survives its trek across the MDR, it could catch the MJO while getting into the Caribbean. Maybe its the precursor of the <950 mbar EPS ensemble member.

Also, an unrelated question with a potentially obvious answer: would lower average pressure in the MDR mean storms of a certain wind speed will be slightly stronger pressure-wise in comparison to similar storms in the same area in previous years? For example, if we were to see another 155 kt Cat 5 near the Lesser Antilles like Irma this season, would it be more likely to have a lower pressure since pressures in that region are lower than those of 2017?

[NDG]

The indicators I am looking at to me still suggest we could see a progressive pattern over North America and Western Atlantic for peak months August - October rather than a semi-permanent anomalously strong Bermuda High as we saw more of in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

1) A combination of warmer to much warmer than normal waters in the region around Bermuda, off the east coast of the US, and off the coast of SE Canada which could lead to more rising motion and lowering or pressure which would help decrease the strength of the Bermuda High.
2) Much warmer than normal waters in the Northern Pacific which could help intensify northern and mid-latitude disturbances from the Pacific traveling along the jet stream over North America.
3) Possible indicators a fall pattern over North America may start a bit early this year. We have yet another anomalously strong trough over the eastern CONUS expected to develop with anomalously low 500mb heights all the way down into the southern Gulf of Mexico which is rare to see this time of year. Further runs of the globals models, particularly the GFS and GEFS, suggest a series of future troughs sweeping across the northern US and southern Canada. The pattern is already looking like hints of fall, below normal temperatures may be possible at times for the Eastern US for the next 10+ days

Like I have said before is way too early to say that, the deep trough digging down the Ohio & MS river valley next week will not be progressing eastward.
Models are suggesting possible strong AEWs cruising across the Caribbean next week.
They also show much improved UL conditions across the Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1294629955817668608

[Ubercast]

It just seems every single indicator this year so far has been pointing towards an ugly season and it just keeps getting uglier...

Only thing to do now is wait and see what happens.

We shall see if the favorable MJO wave actually makes it into the Atl. Basin or becomes a suppressed Kelvin wave.

I haven’t heard this said before, but how likely is this to happen?

[Visioen]

Only thing to do now is wait and see what happens.

We shall see if the favorable MJO wave actually makes it into the Atl. Basin or becomes a suppressed Kelvin wave.

I haven’t heard this said before, but how likely is this to happen?

Since it's not based on anything at all, very very unlikely.

[Ubercast]

We shall see if the favorable MJO wave actually makes it into the Atl. Basin or becomes a suppressed Kelvin wave.

I haven’t heard this said before, but how likely is this to happen?

Since it's not based on anything at all, very very unlikely.

Thank you for answering, I know it might be a stupid question, but I have a limited base of knowledge to work from. I’m still trying to learn.

[psyclone]

With the Caribbean looking much more favorable this year, we should be deriving no comfort in a potential (and likely transient) episode of toughing over the eastern US. Such a pattern could easily coax chicanery out of that region and toward the Gulf region or southeast coast where stupidly warm seas await. I'm hearing plenty about crickets on the GFS. But should we believe such a scenario? Weather is really about painting a canvas in probabilistic pastels (buttressed by facts and solid reasoning) rather than thinking in extreme (but unlikely) solutions. Is it possible? Sure. Anything is possible. But is it more likely knowing what we know about climo, seasonality and reasonable expectations of what should happen? I would respectfully submit the answer is no. That doesn't mean we ignore the output. But it does mean we subject it to reasonable scrutiny and a recognition that we may have traded one bias (early season phantoms) for another (peak season nada). Weather plays tricks on all of us, amateurs and pros alike. We are never far from a humbling. Look at what just happened a few days ago with the epic derecho in Iowa...one of the most powerful on record. The SPC outlook the night before was painted with the lowest risk (5% marginal) out there. People had no idea what was about to hit them...including the pros. If the pros can get hoodwinked by mother nature...we all can. I suspect the seedling for our first major hurricane is on the map right now...we're just not quite sure which one it is.