ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[SoupBone]

Ok lets once again clarify this. A modoki El Nino and a CP El Nino are the same thing. Please lets not tag the "modoki" term because 2004 was one and had landfalls. Most El Ninos are modoki. The strong El Ninos are the traditional ones.

Now like NDG pointed out strength and locations of anomalies during the season seems to matter. Not if it is "modoki" or not. 2009 and 2006 were "modoki" but bc the eastern regions took longer to cool it suppressed activity. Modoki El ninos naturally are more active because they are weaker than the traditional EP El Ninos <- there are two of them since 1979).

Here is the paper on the two types of El Ninos

http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Yu.2011.TAC.pdf

I understand the origin in that it's a Central Pacific rather than Eastern Pacific. I guess the naming throws me off a bit considering the definition of the word "Modoki". I'll take a look at these links. Thanks!

[Cyclenall]

Well I wasn't following the Nino 3.4 during the last few weeks but that spike should help for a warmer fall here in eastern Canada . Like everyone else, I have no idea what this will do to the rest of the season in all basins. I don't see this as a similar El Nino formation like 2006 or 2009 (naming otherwise) for various reasons. What I do know is whatever is happening its having almost no affect on the basins up to this point...the NRL currently lists three active systems in the Atlantic and 0 for everywhere else on Earth. Then you have weak to no activity in the Cpac and Epac basins when it should be on the upswing bigtime right now (including that MJO shift that we were told about). If you want to compare 2006 and 2009 to this year, its not even close. I almost laughed at TS John in the Epac...a naked swirl in no time flat (in September and closer to land). Not exactly a banner image of a forming El Nino. The Atlantic is almost a dead-ringer to last year in its behavior (2011) and all basins are under-performing ACE IMO. Its funny, reminds me of last year's La Nina!!

If this continues all the way until the end of October I'm just going to shake my head and wonder WTH happened.

[Ntxw]

Latest MEI is out and quite a drop it was to .579. How crazy, this has been one of the most puzzling El Nino's. In perspective JJ was one of the top 5 highest MEI values for the bimonthlies for those two months and JA is one of the lowest for the respective period. Even 2004 steadily grew.

What this does verify is that the El Nino weakened in August substantially.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center September update

They say El Nino will not reach Moderate status and stay as a Weak one thru the rest of this year and going thru early 2013.


Synopsis: El Nino conditions are likely to develop during September 2012.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during August 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Reflecting this warmth, most of the weekly Niño index values remained near +0.5°C (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also remained elevated during the month (Fig. 3), consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Possible signs of El Niño development in the atmosphere included upper-level easterly wind anomalies and a slightly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Despite these indicators, key aspects of the tropical atmosphere did not support the development of El Niño conditions during the month. In particular, low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, and the pattern of tropical convection from Indonesia to the central equatorial Pacific was inconsistent with El Niño with the typical regions of both enhanced and suppressed convection shifted too far west (Fig. 5). Because of the lack of clear atmospheric anomaly patterns, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during August. However, there are ongoing signs of a possibly imminent transition towards El Niño in the atmosphere as well as the ocean.

Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly one-half of the statistical models, now predict the onset of El Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the remainder of the year (Fig. 6). The consensus of dynamical models indicates a borderline moderate strength event (Niño 3.4 index near +1.0°C), while the statistical model consensus indicates a borderline weak El Niño (+0.4° to +0.5°C). Supported by the model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, the official forecast calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13. (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[weatherdude1108]

So, what does this update mean for Texas? How does a weak versus a moderate Nino compare rain-wise for the state?

I guess the direct question is what have weak ninos historically done for Texas (since we seem to be heading in the direction of a weak nino)? I'm not sure I want to know the answer, unless there is a lot of rain involved. But I'll prepare myself.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:
So, what does this update mean for Texas? How does a weak versus a moderate Nino compare rain-wise for the state?

I guess the direct question is what have weak ninos historically done for Texas (since we seem to be heading in the direction of a weak nino)? I'm not sure I want to know the answer, unless there is a lot of rain involved. But I'll prepare myself.

I will deffer to our friend Ntxw to answer the question as he knows a lot about the patterns in terms of Texas.

[Ntxw]

I'm not certain for precipitation. For the southern plains the basic understanding is that moderate El Nino = wetter and less polar cold fronts (but constantly cooler than average due to cloud cover). Weak Nino = Less precip than moderate but more cold air coming from NW Canada.

It's harder to differentiate which magnitude of each we get on enso strength alone because there are seasonal variability such as the teleconnections for winter. However, location of the warm anomalies weak or moderate does effect overall pattern and central is the best for Texas while east is not so much. Also a weak Nino tends to lead the coldest anomalies closer to the southeast than south central plains.

This is something Portastorm sent me that came in handy

http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Paper.US ... cepted.pdf

Thanks Cycloneye for the CPC update, I wonder what the latest model guidance looks like if they have updated.

[South Texas Storms]

Latest MEI is out and quite a drop it was to .579. How crazy, this has been one of the most puzzling El Nino's. In perspective JJ was one of the top 5 highest MEI values for the bimonthlies for those two months and JA is one of the lowest for the respective period. Even 2004 steadily grew.

What this does verify is that the El Nino weakened in August substantially.

I don't understand how it weakened so much during August. Hasn't it recovered nicely so far this month?
Ntxw, do you think we will have our first >1C in next Monday's update?

[cycloneye]

I'm not certain for precipitation. For the southern plains the basic understanding is that moderate El Nino = wetter and less polar cold fronts (but constantly cooler than average due to cloud cover). Weak Nino = Less precip than moderate but more cold air coming from NW Canada.

It's harder to differentiate which magnitude of each we get on enso strength alone because there are seasonal variability such as the teleconnections for winter. However, location of the warm anomalies weak or moderate does effect overall pattern and central is the best for Texas while east is not so much. Also a weak Nino tends to lead the coldest anomalies closer to the southeast than south central plains.

This is something Portastorm sent me that came in handy

http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Paper.US ... cepted.pdf

Thanks Cycloneye for the CPC update, I wonder what the latest model guidance looks like if they have updated.

All the ENSO models update by mid month so we will see how there are on the September update. Here is one of the principal ones (CFSV2) that shows only Weak El Nino as peak.

[South Texas Storms]

But you can see that the majority of the latest models (thin blue lines), are showing it peaking at moderate strength. I'm not very confident that this El Nino will peak at only weak strength.

[Ntxw]

I don't understand how it weakened so much during August. Hasn't it recovered nicely so far this month?
Ntxw, do you think we will have our first >1C in next Monday's update?

Mid August had a fairly significant drop in SST's. 0.8C to 0.6C and remained there for two weeks. MJO though isn't a factor in MEI, suppression in the Pacific probably effected westerlies allowing easterlies to resume at that time which is a factor. It did improve late in the month. I'm not sure about next monday's weekly update yet.

I understand CP Ninos tend to fluctuate and August/Sept seems to be the period their strength drops in development. I'm still sticking to the low end moderate stance . CPC's weak forecast is justified IMO though by what they see but they do allow a possible moderate status in their latest update. CP's are volatile.

[Kingarabian]

What a bust of an El-Nino.

[rainstorm]

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 07 Sep 2012 Average for last 30 days -2.1
Average for last 90 days -5.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 14.3

[SoupBone]

Bump for the link:

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[MWatkins]

I think the real question is will a weak El Nino develop in time to cut off the October Caribbean season?

Perhaps the fact that we've only had one major so far, in the middle of the Atlantic, suggests Nino may be affecting the Atlantic some. Also, looking at the ACE we're not all that far ahead of normal.

That said I think we're in for a few more majors and still a season 120% of normal ACE wise. That means Nino probably won't affect the Atlantic in time to disrupt the Caribbean season once the Cape Verde pipeline shuts down.

MW

[cycloneye]

For those who like to follow the data of the past years of ENSO,here is a good link to that information.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[cycloneye]

The mixed signals continue about having El Nino or not as the 30 day SOI has gone up in a significant way from being around -11 to almost reaching the positive line as of this post. And for sure it will go positive by tonight as the daily index continues positive.

[Ntxw]

The mixed signals continue about having El Nino or not as the 30 day SOI has gone up in a significant way from being around -11 to almost reaching the positive line as of this post. And for sure it will go positive by tonight as the daily index continues positive.

Certainly mind boggling Cycloneye having near 1c anomaly at 3.4 and positive SOI

As for tomorrow's update, I think it will hold steady maybe one point up or down. A renewed Kelvin wave is appearing near Papua New Guinea and will progress east. This feature is eating away at the -PDO stronghold around Hawaii. This will result in warming of 4 and if it holds, 3.4 down the pipe.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[cycloneye]

Modoki all the way! Look at that.

[Ntxw]

I don't know if this is short term or precursor, along with a new Kelvin wave mentioned earlier, the latest 200hpa wind anomalies have changed some since last week's update. Westerlies have since covered almost the entire tropical pacific. At the same time easterlies have moved into the mid latitudes of the southern Pacific and northeast Australia.



CFSv2 has trended closer to borderline also with latest data.

With initiation data from early August



Latest initiation data from late Aug to Sept