2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[crownweather]

Holy cow. Look at the 8-14 day analog guidance which is centered at the end of this month. This looks like a VERY favorable landfalling pattern.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1427292955832897536

[SFLcane]

Holy cow. Look at the 8-14 day analog guidance which is centered at the end of this month. This looks like a VERY favorable landfalling pattern.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1427292955832897536

If one of the those waves over Africa develops during the next 2 weeks look out.

[Shell Mound]

Holy cow. Look at the 8-14 day analog guidance which is centered at the end of this month. This looks like a VERY favorable landfalling pattern.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1427292955832897536

If one of the those waves over Africa develops during the next 2 weeks look out.

Personally, I doubt anything of significance will be present in the MDR during this timeframe. I would expect the first significant AEW-linked TC in September.

[Jr0d]

The wave moving off Africa today looks pretty good and the one behind it shows some good spin even though the image is distorted.

I would bet that at least one of them will become a named system.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Shell Mound]

I was thinking something like this as well. Doesn’t really feel like we’ve left the lull - in fact I’d argue it’s still going on. Yeah yeah flip after august 20 but I don’t see any signs that will be the case so far.

I think the subtropics are once again going to exceed expectations in the Atlantic, while the MDR and Caribbean are going to underperform. We shall see.

Just FYI, people said the exact same thing in 2017 when the MDR had Bret, TD4, Don and Harvey dissipating while the subtropics had Cat 2 Gert.

Conditions in 2021 thus far just do not seem to be conducive to Irma- or Ivan-like, CV-type long-trackers that become majors while in the MDR. The EPAC continues to dominate the Atlantic to date. Until the AEJ slackens and the persistent TUTT weakens, the Atlantic will struggle to generate (major) hurricanes, at least in the deep tropics. The only thing that may prove to be an exception is a storm like Chris (2018) or Epsilon (2020) that forms in the subtropics and then strengthens while gradually curving OTS at a high latitude.

[ElectricStorm]

I think the subtropics are once again going to exceed expectations in the Atlantic, while the MDR and Caribbean are going to underperform. We shall see.

Just FYI, people said the exact same thing in 2017 when the MDR had Bret, TD4, Don and Harvey dissipating while the subtropics had Cat 2 Gert.

Conditions in 2021 thus far just do not seem to be conducive to Irma- or Ivan-like, CV-type long-trackers that become majors while in the MDR. The EPAC continues to dominate the Atlantic to date. Until the AEJ slackens and the persistent TUTT weakens, the Atlantic will struggle to generate (major) hurricanes, at least in the deep tropics. The only thing that may prove to be an exception is a storm like Chris (2018) or Epsilon (2020) that forms in the subtropics and then strengthens while gradually curving OTS at a high latitude.

It's August 16. Pretty sure it's way to early to know for sure on that... If it was September 16 then yes I would agree

[Shell Mound]

Just FYI, people said the exact same thing in 2017 when the MDR had Bret, TD4, Don and Harvey dissipating while the subtropics had Cat 2 Gert.

Conditions in 2021 thus far just do not seem to be conducive to Irma- or Ivan-like, CV-type long-trackers that become majors while in the MDR. The EPAC continues to dominate the Atlantic to date. Until the AEJ slackens and the persistent TUTT weakens, the Atlantic will struggle to generate (major) hurricanes, at least in the deep tropics. The only thing that may prove to be an exception is a storm like Chris (2018) or Epsilon (2020) that forms in the subtropics and then strengthens while gradually curving OTS at a high latitude.

It's August 16.

Within four days of 20 August one should already begin to see signs of the pattern changing. At this point models stubbornly cling to the strong AEJ/TUTT.

[ElectricStorm]

Conditions in 2021 thus far just do not seem to be conducive to Irma- or Ivan-like, CV-type long-trackers that become majors while in the MDR. The EPAC continues to dominate the Atlantic to date. Until the AEJ slackens and the persistent TUTT weakens, the Atlantic will struggle to generate (major) hurricanes, at least in the deep tropics. The only thing that may prove to be an exception is a storm like Chris (2018) or Epsilon (2020) that forms in the subtropics and then strengthens while gradually curving OTS at a high latitude.

It's August 16.

Within four days of 20 August one should already begin to see signs of the pattern changing. At this point models stubbornly cling to the strong AEJ/TUTT.

We'll see. I mean it's possible but it seems like most years models don't really show great conditions around this time frame every year until right before the storms get going.

[tolakram]

West first. Fred, strong TS at the minute, Grace might be a major in the gulf. Next storm might be the one near Bermuda, next one might develop in the central Atlantic. I think we will only know once we can look back in a few weeks because the models won't tell us that early and each of these storms slightly modifies the background environment.

[Hammy]

I think the subtropics are once again going to exceed expectations in the Atlantic, while the MDR and Caribbean are going to underperform. We shall see.

Just FYI, people said the exact same thing in 2017 when the MDR had Bret, TD4, Don and Harvey dissipating while the subtropics had Cat 2 Gert.

Conditions in 2021 thus far just do not seem to be conducive to Irma- or Ivan-like, CV-type long-trackers that become majors while in the MDR. The EPAC continues to dominate the Atlantic to date. Until the AEJ slackens and the persistent TUTT weakens, the Atlantic will struggle to generate (major) hurricanes, at least in the deep tropics. The only thing that may prove to be an exception is a storm like Chris (2018) or Epsilon (2020) that forms in the subtropics and then strengthens while gradually curving OTS at a high latitude.

Don't forget 2018 also produced Florence, and that wasn't until September. CFS still indicates late August is when things will take off--August 20 is merely a median point with about five days on either side. Even Irma didn't form until August 30 so these long tracking systems are more of a September-specific thing .

[Category5Kaiju]

Just FYI, people said the exact same thing in 2017 when the MDR had Bret, TD4, Don and Harvey dissipating while the subtropics had Cat 2 Gert.

Conditions in 2021 thus far just do not seem to be conducive to Irma- or Ivan-like, CV-type long-trackers that become majors while in the MDR. The EPAC continues to dominate the Atlantic to date. Until the AEJ slackens and the persistent TUTT weakens, the Atlantic will struggle to generate (major) hurricanes, at least in the deep tropics. The only thing that may prove to be an exception is a storm like Chris (2018) or Epsilon (2020) that forms in the subtropics and then strengthens while gradually curving OTS at a high latitude.

Don't forget 2018 also produced Florence, and that wasn't until September. CFS still indicates late August is when things will take off--August 20 is merely a median point with about five days on either side. Even Irma didn't form until August 30 so these long tracking systems are more of a September-specific thing .

Luis, Georges, Ivan....precisely.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427360253272801292





Looks the worst of the SAL outbreak stays in the northern part of the MDR and out of the Carribean and Gulf.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427360253272801292


Looks the worst of the SAL outbreak stays in the northern part of the MDR and out of the Carribean and Gulf.

That will bring out the bears in full force!

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427360253272801292

It's pretty north though, so while any waves that exit north of the Cape Verde islands within this week will die, those that exit further south and leave after the 20th should be better off. Nothing too striking about it imho; it looks to be short-lived, and there is not at least any noticeable second major dust burst that follows.

[AlphaToOmega]

SAL typically subsides in August. That dust outbreak will likely be the last one for the year. After that outbreak, dry air is unlikely to be a factor in the Atlantic basin.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1427381535200710665

[tolakram]

For the record, here's Fred (landfall), Grace, and little Henri.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427360253272801292


Looks the worst of the SAL outbreak stays in the northern part of the MDR and out of the Carribean and Gulf.

If one of those upcoming waves remains south and enters the Caribbean — as a handful of model runs and ensemble members have suggested — it’ll miss all of the SAL.

[tolakram]

And a short animation.

Fred landfalling as a tropical storm.
Grace is a depression, forecast to become a hurricane over the southern gulf.
Henri is a tropical storm and forecast to strengthen to 60mph max.

[AlphaToOmega]

The latest GFS and ECMWF MJO forecasts show us going into the null phase for some reason.