djones65 wrote:Surface pressures will always fluctuate up and down diurnally.
I look at 24 hour trends to determine whether pressures are rising or falling. Just because a synoptic report may show a rising pressure at the observation time is not that important to me unless it is during the time it should be falling diurnally. What I look at is to compare the pressures at 12 or 24 hour increments. Typically a pressure drop of greater than 3 mb in 24 hours is a good indicator of something possibly forming. Buoy 42020 50 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, TX shows a 24 hour pressure fall of 2.3 mb. At 1950UTC the pressure was 29.85" and same time yesterday it was 29.92"
With that being said I personally do not believe we will see a tropical cyclone develop out of this system. I do believe we will see a broad low pressure area with multiple vortices that will track north northeast into western and central Louisiana on Sunday. However, the upper level shear will be too strong to allow the system to become vertically aligned.
Very good analysis. I am throwing out the possibilities for discussion when I post like what I did above. IF a sfc low does form, as you stated there is almost no possibility of it becoming vertically stacked. I have not tried to look back over the last few days of pressures, but the pressures I am seeing appear a little lower than normal to me. The fact that they are falling now is imo normal. Time will tell if this is going to turn into a trend.
