Wave WSW of CV Islands

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knotimpaired
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#261 Postby knotimpaired » Sat Jul 31, 2010 10:49 am

cycloneye wrote:
knotimpaired wrote:Doubt me as you wish but I do think PR is going to be hit by the now unmentioned 90L.

Now my plan of action is to move our Van that is at Farjardo's port to higher ground.


I think is premature to say for sure if this system will develop into a strong cyclone and also what track it may take. But what is a sure thing is that the peak of the season is drawing closer and we have to be prepared for any big threats that may come to the NE Caribbean in your case and mine. IMO, I would wait 3 days to see how things are evolving east of us, to see if is a invest again, to see if it organizes into a Tropical Cyclone and third, which track will it take once it develops (If it does) . The bottomline is, lets continue to watch this wave in the next few days to see what finnally comes out from it, but lets be prepared not only for this one, but for any future threats in the next 6-8 weeks.


Luis, I agree that we have to wait a few days to really know what is going to happen, but if you do not want MJ or I on your doorstep next week, you should probably wish this away.
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#262 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 10:51 am

Impressive

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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#263 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 10:57 am

cycloneye wrote:Aric, what do you think is at the circle? :)

Image


yeah its hard to avoid seeing that but I was waiting to see what happened to it throughout the day... I mentioned it earlier when i said it looked better this morning than it did at all yesterday.. there is nearly a closed wind field expect for the NE side where the wind field splits and heads to the wave from africa.. it s clearly a very sharp trough axis and clearly has rotation with some features that appear to be the beginning of banding.... I guess the most interesting thing is that the convection it building quite nicely near the circ that is a there.. I have been watching it this morning looking for it to collapse and all i can see is it seemingly getting better organized.. but I prefer to wait atm
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#264 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:04 am

After viewing Hi-res visible extensively this morning, IMO I think the surfave low/reflection is forming near 12N/24W...The system is slowly organizing this afternoon and moving West. This also lines up fairly well with the 6Z Nogaps as it indicated this would be the area to watch...More later...
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#265 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:07 am

Vortex wrote:After viewing Hi-res visible extensively this morning, IMO I think the surfave low/reflection is forming near 12N/24W...The system is slowly organizing this afternoon and moving West. This also lines up fairly well with the 6Z Nogaps as it indicated this would be the area to watch...More later...


I agree, the 06 and now the 12z GFS seem to have "figured the transfer out". 12z GFS starts to develop in about 36 hours...
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#266 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:16 am

Wow, 12z GFS back on in force

Watch out Islanders

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#267 Postby Vortex » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:17 am

12Z GFS at 144 hr Strongest yet..Approaching NE carribean..Well established ridge to the North...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#268 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:20 am

So here is a quick analysis of the interaction of the African wave and the ex-90L I have highlighted (very roughly) the cloud lines associated with the 2 apparent lows that have formed.. its going to be tricky to be trick as to exactly how this plays out. but right now things seem to be moving along... the energy wave the african wave is joining with the energy from 90L and that will transfer some angular momentum which should over the next 24 hours help develop a decent low. only major issue is the ITCZ is still embedded in this mess and can be seen as the one straight line in the image below. those types of boundaries can take some time to break down and become part of the circ.

Image

Image
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#269 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:25 am

Just north of Puerto Rico
150 hours

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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#270 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:29 am

Image



This loop really displays the process going on now Aric Dunn mentioned, as well as a convective resurgence with the wave about to reach the W. Caribbean and flare again.


Fantastic feedback on this area Aric, the model's ability to foresee this sort of interaction prove just how valuable they really are.
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#271 Postby blp » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:31 am

According to this run the main vorticity won't take over until 40W at 36 hours, but looking at the satellite it looks like the development might happen sooner.
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#272 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:34 am

228 hours..stalling in the Bahamas again

Image]


Under an anticyclone

Image
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#273 Postby blp » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:34 am

Bahama bomber.

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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#274 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:38 am

Edit: heading north to Canada

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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#275 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:39 am

Maybe they fixed the bug of -20kts at the new GFS? :)
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#276 Postby Riptide » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:39 am

Ivanhater wrote:Fish...

Image

A very potent and beautiful fish. :D
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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#277 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:41 am

Yep, very strong

Also another Cape verde Hurricane approaching the Islands and a storm in the BOC

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Re: Wave SSW of CV Islands

#278 Postby Riptide » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:42 am

It looks like the outer bands rake Nantucket and Cape Cod, probably undergoing sub-tropical transition at that point though with heavy bombogenesis.
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#279 Postby Gustywind » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:44 am

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#280 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:47 am

Nogaps does a very good job differentiating between the two circulations we have now and how they may interact...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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