What is the future of this season?

[jinftl]

The graphics below show the probability that a named system will have an impact (be within 100 miles) during the months of October and November. Parts of the southern coast of Nova Scotia have a higher chance of being hit by a storm in October than part of Texas even....I hate to say this, but as far as the U.S. goes, the rest of this season is pretty much all about the 2nd biggest F word that will get a reaction....Florida....the numbers don't lie. To narrow it down even further, the focus increases significantly as you move down the peninsula to...gasp...south florida.

October:




November:

Those cool fronts that gives us nice weather picks up storms from the Caribbean to Florida. I remember Mitch hitting Florida. It produced tornadoes and heavy rain despite moving fast. It was a real mess of thunderstorms.

There are no maps of where those November storms formed. The last time it happened was in 1839. The Bay of Campeche tends to allow storms to rapidly intensify due to the curve of the area as Dr. Masters has written. The probability of a November storm hitting Texas is small, about every 160 years. We have a better chance of getting snow in December or seeing single digit temperatures.

[Ptarmigan]

The graphics below show the probability that a named system will have an impact (be within 100 miles) during the months of October and November. Parts of the southern coast of Nova Scotia have a higher chance of being hit by a storm in October than part of Texas even....I hate to say this, but as far as the U.S. goes, the rest of this season is pretty much all about the 2nd biggest F word that will get a reaction....Florida....the numbers don't lie. To narrow it down even further, the focus increases significantly as you move down the peninsula to...gasp...south florida.

I notice Florida is really high risk in October and they should not let their guards down. At least in Texas, we are safer, but I don't want to be complacent. As the Boy Scout motto, "Always be prepared."

People tend to be complacent during the season in general. It seems to get worse towards the late season because people think once the season is almost over, no storms will come. Before Wilma came, many people from the Florida Keys did not evacuate. Had Wilma come within a few miles, many people would of been killed, likely more so than Katrina a couple months earlier. One scenario I fear is a Caribbean late season monster like Wilma that hits Florida, like Tampa, which is high risk for storms, and than skirts the East Coast. That would be really bad.

[Aquawind]

Fair
86 °F(30 °C) Humidity: 46 %
Wind Speed: NW 15 MPH
Barometer: 29.82" (1009.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C)
Heat Index: 87 °F (31 °C)

The nicest day in months and better ahead this week..
Yard Mowed..
Weeds Whacked n Sprayed..
Football..
Beer..
Roast in Crock Pot all day..

My Guard is Down Today..

[jinftl]

Does anyone on the Talkin Tropics message board ever really put their guard down...or is it just we know it is ok to do so right now??!?! LOL



Enjoy the day...it is great outside.....the way i see it, having to keep half an eye on the tropics until november is a small price to pay for living down here in what otherwise is the time of year that we transition from the muggy tropics of the last 6 months to paradise in the months ahead!!!

My Guard is Down Today..

[Aquawind]

Today in particular! It's nice to know I always have somebody on storm2k covering my back though!

[DanKellFla]

It looks like the South Florida dry season weather pattern has been established. (Does anybody know if there is a correlation between that and landfalling hurricanes in South Florida? ) It doesn't "feel" like hurricane season anymore. Personally, I let my guard down. I only check the NCH once a day. Also, I know that if I don't have electricity I won't be hot and miserable and I have plenty of gas to keep the refridgerators running for a few days.

[jinftl]

The high/low today in Miami was 88/73. The average for the date is 87/74. Not sure what correlation can be drawn between normal early october temps (slightly cooler than peak summer) and October storms given that October normally has been the busiest month down here for storms and the weather is decidedly normal right now. One thing I do think - these fronts that pass through here (often in name only....slightly drier air moves in, no impact on temps) often can serve as the catalyst for development to our south and then the storms ride the path of the front north.

It looks like the South Florida dry season weather pattern has been established. (Does anybody know if there is a correlation between that and landfalling hurricanes in South Florida? ) It doesn't "feel" like hurricane season anymore. Personally, I let my guard down. I only check the NCH once a day. Also, I know that if I don't have electricity I won't be hot and miserable and I have plenty of gas to keep the refridgerators running for a few days.

[Vortex]

FWIW, looking at climatology for South Florida and Hurricane hits in October the period from October 10-20th stands out. Having said that several models including the GFS are developing a storm over the western carribean by next weekend...I think by mid week we will be talking about this system and by next weekend things will really light up around here...

[psyclone]

speaking for my geographic area, it seems like we went from august right to october...we skipped a month. september was very octoberish here with exceptionally low rainfall. now that we're officially in october, it feels novemberish with super low dewpoints and cooler nights and it looks like more caa is in store through the balance of the week. with respect to the tropics, time is a ticking. hits are so rare in in november the season is pretty well shot stateside by the end of october so a week of nothing is doing serious damage to the potential. and compared to last week when there appeared to be more than one threat on the way, what a difference a week makes. my guard is down until mother nature forces a reevaluation which should be a good ways off if ever.

[FireRat]

With this season being so weird, I wouldn't be surprised to see a November hit. The La Nina, hot sea surface temps at near record levels and the huge lack of activity overseas in typhoon land make me think that either the Atlantic is getting ready to crank, or maybe we are in a break after all those busy seasons from last decade.

If we get a favorable MJO in November, even late November, we might see a big surprise. Then again, this is just my opinion.....it ain't over until it's really over in years like this.

[Steve H.]

yeah, its hard to say. It seems like the westerlies have taken over, even in Florida, where today we had a dry and relatively cool day. Indian summer could come calling though, and its the first week of October. But it feels as if Fall is in the air now.

[hurricanehunter69]

Okay...thats it for the trough invasion! Looks like a good stretch of hangin out by the pool and beach weather! And maybe a very interesting October mini peak...?

[DanKellFla]

Speaking of beach weather. Does anybody know why the waves are so big off of South Florida? I have some time off to go fishing, but I won't do that in 10 foot seas.

[dwsqos2]

Just an update, I'm cancelling the season for the United States based on gfs progs strong westerly flow at 200 mb seeming to dominate, oh, just most of the Atlantic north 20-23 N run after run for almost the entire prognosticated 16-day period. A terrible, high-amplitude phase of the MJO doesn't help either. Climatology plays a role as well given that if a more favorable phase of the MJO roles around, it may be November by that time. And, the probability of U.S. tc strikes decreases dramatically at that point.

I'm still not wild about a ridiculously active late season, primarily because of the all-but-strong Nina (at least using the MEI as a proxy for Nina strength) as well as the negative PDO. Honestly, if you ignore the warm phase of the AMO, 1975 is not a horrible analog based on these factors. 1975 produced two tropical or subtropical cyclones after October 1. Toss in +AMO, and I'm still okay with 3/1/0 sometime between now and December 31. I could see 4/1/0 or mabye 4/2/0 if the thing in the Caribbean materializes

Needless to say, I'm not wild about ripping Ninas and late season activity. Look at years like 1955, 2007, 1975. None produced much. 1988 and 1954 did, but from the UW dataset, the North Pacific was in a very different state those seasons.

MEI Timeseries

PDO Timeseries

I usually hate index forecasting, but I'm really bored, so whee.

And before someone says Katie of 1955 was a major hurricane, note that the peak intensity prior to landfall in Haiti was 984 mb/100 knots. A really small rmw and/or really high environmental pressures would be necessary for that. The latter seems unlikely given the track, and I just don't think the former occurred.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

DWS, i'm inclined to agree with you. sometimes you need to forget climo and look out the window. we can waste a week or 2 in august. now, not so much. as favorable as october can be, things typically tail off very quickly. of course things can change but the clock is relentless. and i am speaking from a US-o-centric (specifically florida) point of view, not the entire basin. i would be surprised if the caribbean development potential being discussed ever threatened the US. it just doesn't look like the pattern favors it at this point imo. i would, however, remain on guard in the Caribbean, especially from central cuba eastward.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

I think the Caribbean will have plenty left to cook another one up once the unseasonable cut-off Low massive front pulls out. Feels like November here tonight with a cool front wind blowing from the north at night and clear skies and stars.

[boca]

I think well get a few more storms but here in the US including Florida will be safe due to the westerlies dipping down to the Keys for the foreseeable future.We dodged a bullet again.

[jconsor]

Anyone cancelling any chance of US landfalls based on the model forecasts ought to look at the recent pattern as well as the trends in the models, not just their actual forecasts.

All models missed the eastern US cutoff low in late Sept until about 5 days out.

It is looking more and more likely based on the pattern and model trends that another cutoff low will form in the eastern US by early next week. The reason is ridging over Iceland bridging west toward Greenland and NE Canada, which traps a huge upper low over Labrador That in turn shortens the wavelength between that upper low and the upstream trough over the Midwest, which forces it to dig southward and separate from the northern stream.

[KWT]

Also anyone who looks at the climate of moderate/strong La Nina's know a high percentage of them do feature not only a hurricane but usually a major.

The difference by the way between the _ve AMO/+ve AMO results for the chances of a major hurricane is pretty stark by the way...there doesn't tend to be many majors in La Ninas during -ve AMO...turn the AMO positive and you suddenly go upto 81% chance...

In other words 4 out of 5 -1.0 La Ninas or lower in a warm AMO phase will have a major hurricane...some years such as 1999 will have multiple...

and I'm not even including seasons like 2008 which were La Nina in terms of pattern but don't quite make the cut.

We will see...but the AMO seems to be quite key as to the chances of a major or not, which is hardly surprising really!

[Sanibel]

One thing can be said about 2010. The weather features that blocked hurricanes from hitting the CONUS were stronger than those features which formed and guided them.

The central and eastern GOM, and especially a certain peninsular state, has had a guardian weather shield this year (so far).