Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[Aric Dunn]

Still think this has a shot to develop. 12Z GEM sure develops it with a flood along the TX Coast.

yeah its not going anywhere anytime soon so it will have plenty of time to organize. there is low shear right now and pressure are not falling but are not high either. there is a lot of dry air to the north which is why im favoring the southern area that seems to be taking shape in the BOC. where a actually LLC forms is really up in the air.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thinking it will not be a big deal...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SE
TX THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE MODELS SHOW
THE DRIER AIR GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF NUDGING ITS WAY TOWARD
THE COAST. THOUGHT THAT THE NAM WAS A BIT TOO FAST AND TOO FAR
INLAND WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND DECIDED
TO GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.

DO NOT THINK THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE INLAND AREAS UNTIL THE DEEPER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND.
BROUGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN THE COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE ON SUNDAY THE BEST CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE PW/S ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET MUCH
ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...AND THAT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON SUNDAY. IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DOES OCCUR...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

They must have not looked at the QPF's...

[Aric Dunn]

The NAM actually seems reasonable.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[srainhoutx]

They must have not looked at the QPF's...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Impressive QPF's

[Agua]

^^^^^^^^^
UGH!!! Friends in the central and north part of the state are saying the air has turned dryer over the past couple days and its reminiscent of fall. Down here, it is about as muggy as any non-post-cane period that I've ever seen.

ENOUGH rain.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

18Z NAM develops it..Slow mover NW then North.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAM reminds me of Bret

[lrak]

Are you guys debating whats off the TX coast or the spin off the Western Yucatan?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Aric Dunn]

Are you guys debating whats off the TX coast or the spin off the Western Yucatan?

its all basically the same thing..

[lrak]

Are you guys debating whats off the TX coast or the spin off the Western Yucatan?

its all basically the same thing..

Oh, I was getting confused, the Yucatan looks stronger. Looks like RAIN, and maybe a little swell.

thanks AD.

[Stormcenter]

Wow it's amazing how one NWS discussion can differ so much from another's concerning the same weather complex. What easterly wave are they referring to?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CANADIAN FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST...ENTERING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY.

FURTHER EAST...THE REMAINS OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
APALACHICOLA THROUGH MARINE POINT 28N 90W TO MARINE POINT 26N 96W.
THIS DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BACKUP...MOVING WESTWARD AS A
GULF EASTERLY WAVE...AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS CANADIAN FRONT
BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...THE MERGED SYSTEM WILL
BEHAVE AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE IN PLACE AS A WEAK
CANADIAN FRONT SWEEPS ON THROUGH. THIN POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS.

FOR THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM-UP AS A LATE AUGUST
SUN BEAMS THROUGH POST-FRONTAL AIR. THE AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MERGED FRONT-EASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
WESTWARD...LANDFALLING THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE RAIN IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON SUNDAY. INCOMING CARIBBEAN AIR WILL UPSLIDE THE MERGED
FRONT-EASTERLY WAVE SYSTEM (WHICH SLOPES WESTWARD TOWARD THE DRY
AIR WITH HEIGHT). OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAND. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WATER

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Not the best of discussions!!! By the way NAM nearly develops a Hurricane right before landfall near Brownsville.

[Wx_Warrior]

18z NAM

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GEM QPF

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... p96096.gif

[djmikey]

Wow...I think I have seen about 7 diff scenarios now of where this thing will head. Which is the most "reliable" model?

[rockyman]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 111&loop=0

[Aric Dunn]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 520
MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.