Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asec4vis04



Latest, looking better than yesterday

[TheBurn]

1400Z

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Dare I say I see some hints of banding?

[NDG]

I cannot believe they have not declared this an Invest yet, I believe the low pressure center is not as broad as it was yesterday much closer to the convection, much closer to Jamaica than what they place it the surface map from earlier this morning.
Hard to understand why they ran tropical models this morning on the almost naked 93L in the GOM and not this system.

[HURAKAN]

appears to be organizing

[Javlin]

Maybe have to see if it looks better tomorrow.The GFS/GFDL have no sign of it ATM,the HWRF has something S of Cuba,NOGAPS alittle further E/S of Cuba and the CMC looses it some this morning.Until we get an LLC with some convection this back and forth will continue.

[NDG]

Maybe have to see if it looks better tomorrow.The GFS/GFDL have no sign of it ATM,the HWRF has something S of Cuba,NOGAPS alittle further E/S of Cuba and the CMC looses it some this morning.Until we get an LLC with some convection this back and forth will continue.

The GFDL & HWRF have not been run on this system, cannot go by 93L graphics.

[Javlin]

Maybe have to see if it looks better tomorrow.The GFS/GFDL have no sign of it ATM,the HWRF has something S of Cuba,NOGAPS alittle further E/S of Cuba and the CMC looses it some this morning.Until we get an LLC with some convection this back and forth will continue.

The GFDL & HWRF have not been run on the graphics cannot go by 93L graphics.

Why not?Don't they have to take into account the whole basin? and influences beyond that like fronts?to predict movement?

[HURAKAN]

Based on the latest visible loops, I think it's coming together.

[NDG]

Maybe have to see if it looks better tomorrow.The GFS/GFDL have no sign of it ATM,the HWRF has something S of Cuba,NOGAPS alittle further E/S of Cuba and the CMC looses it some this morning.Until we get an LLC with some convection this back and forth will continue.

The GFDL & HWRF have not been run on the graphics cannot go by 93L graphics.

Why not?Don't they have to take into account the whole basin? and influences beyond that like fronts?to predict movement?

Long story short, the models are only started only recognizing 93L.

[GCANE]

Outflow looks better and anti-cyclone is strengthening.

Looks like the PV anomaly is around 850 to 700mb and weakens above that.

Only thing is rain-rate and cloud-tops have been low for the past 24 hrs.

Not seeing a big dip in MSLP at the closest buoy yet.

[psyclone]

this thing has been fermenting for days and is now getting "that look". I'm waiting impatiently for that invest declaration.

[MGC]

My money is on the area south or near Jamaica in a couple of days like I said yesterday....these broad areas of low pressure take time to evolve......MGC

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=9

Speed this loop up.

I think the circulation (low level?) is clear and it looks to me like organization is beginning. Thoughts?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS PRODUCING
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

Is now invest 94L.Go to active storms/invests forum,to continue the discussions.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=110906&hilit=&p=2130546#p2130546