#267 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:15 pm
Its absolutely amazing how quickly everyone's attitude about a season can change so fast. Less than a month ago people were talking about this season rivaling 2005 in number of storms. Now its a long shot for there to "even" be 18 storms (still very impressive in number). Everyone believed that due to La nina , October would be very above active. This wasn't the case , and the rest of October looks pretty quiet too (last time I checked the models earlier today). I think that people put too much faith in the fact that La nina years often have strong October activity. While this is the case in some years, it certainly isn't as powerful of an effect as el nino's ability to decrease activity in October. Look at October 2007, very weak, despite the strong la nina that year.
I think the season is essentially over. Yes, hurricane season ends November 30 , but after the first week of November, there is unlikely to be more than one more storm, if that.
I think too many people overestimate the number of storms that they think will form in their own "personal" predictions. They believe that the season will be at a high level of activity for the entire season, while in most seasons there are significant lulls. For example, 2010 had a very slow beginning, and had that lull not happened , we would have been in the greek letters. 2007 had an abrupt slowdown after its very active september, etc.
I think we will see 1 more storm form this year. Of course, this is just a guess, the season could enter a high activity period , though its rapidly running out of time to do so.
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