Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[ROCK]

still a lot of work to do....the CMC doesnt close this off until its under Hispa and even with that its weak....stays weak all the way across the pond.

If someone mentions the Death Ridge again I am going to throw up...thanks Brent...

[Meso]

But fact of the matter is, none of those previous runs had support from vast majority of the other models and had been consistent for nearly 10 runs in a row. Not saying that this is guaranteed, but it's certainly far different than anything else the models have shown this year. Far more consistency an consensus.

[Brent]

Euro at 240 hours... something off the Florida east coast, not as intense as the GFS/CMC:

[lonelymike]

Difference between GFS and Euro/CMC it seems is that GFS blows out the Ridge that shall not be named and allows the storm to get in the Gulf while the Euro/CMC allow a weakness to develop over the Atlantic off the SE coast.

We shall see.

[KWT]

ECM takes longer to get going but it does end up getting there and developing a strengthening system over the Bahamas.

Possibly a reasonable forecast given the SAL nearby, GFS maybe being a little on the agressive side between day 4-6.

The only thing I will say, I have real doubts it takes the route north of the islands like the 00z wants...

[KWT]

06z GFS once again being probably overagressive with development in the E.Caribbean I feel.

Strengthening into Hispaniola by 132hrs...

[Vortex]

6Z GFS thru 180...looking stronger in the bahamas compared to 00z at H+180...Stout ridging to the North looks like the hits keep coming as I suspect another hit on FL this run....

H+180


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[Vortex]

H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

[Vortex]

This speaks for itself FL...

H+228

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal228.gif

[ronjon]

06z GFS offshore Sarasota moving north from here.

[floridasun78]

you think this ever be invest?

[South Texas Storms]

you think this ever be invest?

Yeah probably within the next few days.

[ronjon]

06z GFS faster on this run with 17L by about 24 hrs. Hitting SE FL about a day earlier than 00z runs.

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of Pouch P17L/Pre invest 97L by Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic:
I am closely watching a tropical disturbance that is located in the eastern Atlantic near 30 West Longitude. Currently, water vapor imagery showed that dry air is being pulled into this disturbance and this should put a hold on any development for the time being. This is not good news as this means this disturbance will be able to track further to the west and develop much further west and be a potential threat to the Caribbean and the US coast.

The global model guidance as a whole continues to insist that this tropical disturbance will eventually develop into a tropical cyclone early next week. Please note that all of the models wait to develop it until it is west of 55 or 60 West Longitude.

The latest GFS model forecasts that this system will start developing on Saturday when it is just east of Barbados. The GFS model then forecasts this system to track across the eastern Caribbean to the south of Puerto Rico and strengthen this weekend into early next week before tracking across the northern Caribbean and across central Cuba next Thursday. The GFS model ultimately forecasts this system to track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next Friday and Saturday and makes landfall as a hurricane on the Florida Panhandle next Saturday night.

The Canadian model forecasts this to be located just offshore of the east coast of Florida by next Friday as a hurricane.

The European model forecasts that this disturbance will wait to develop until Monday when it is approaching the Turks and Caicos islands. The European model ultimately forecasts this to be a strengthening tropical cyclone over the northern Bahamas next Friday.

Ok, let’s take a step back and look at this disturbance realistically. It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that. I think it is reasonable to say that we should just keep an eye on this disturbance and see how much the dry air takes a toll on this disturbance and not get worried over the big hurricanes that the model guidance have been forecasting for next week. I think that by Friday when this disturbance is west of 50 and 55 West Longitude, we should start seeing whether we may have a real problem on our hands or if the model guidance forecasts were wrong.

So, I think that this disturbance will continue tracking westward for the next several days and track across Barbados and the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Saturday into early Sunday. I think the European model may be way too far north in its forecast and that this disturbance is headed for the Caribbean. I also think that the GFS model is being too aggressive in its intensity forecast this weekend and that development will be slower to occur as this disturbance works out the dry air as it reaches the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean. If we are to have development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, it will probably wait until Sunday or Monday when it is in the eastern part of the Caribbean.

So, for now, this is a disturbance that I will be monitoring closely over the next several days needs to be watched very closely. Finally, I want to mention that the overall pattern during the 8 to 10 day timeframe continues to point to that anything that does track into the Caribbean would be potentially steered northward towards the Florida Peninsula. So, vigilance is the word of the day here.

[SFLcane]

H216 6Z Hurricane on SE coast of FL....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal216.gif

Gotta give it to the GFS for atleast being persistent on a gerneral track towards the SE the last few days.

[cycloneye]

This system has lots of moisture in it's envelope.Also,dry air is trying to enter the circulation.Which one will dominate?

[SFLcane]

00z UKMET also has developement once near 50-55w.

[Blown Away]

IMO if the GFS runs miss going over Hispaniola this system will really bomb out!

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET also has developement once near 50-55w.

Adrian,having the UKMET on board that is traditionally a conservative model speaks volumes.

[SFLcane]

00z UKMET also has developement once near 50-55w.

Adrian,having the UKMET on board that is traditionally a conservative model speaks volumes.

Yea luis i find quite interesting that the VERY conservative model also has a strengthing cyclone similar to the rest of the globals.