Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[NDG]

Today's update from NOAA site shows much warmer tropical MDR than CDAS's numbers.

[SFLcane]

NDG if that keeps up Phil K might have to increase his numbers. Banking on some of those cold sst's in north atl to spread into mdr.

[WPBWeather]

NDG if that keeps up Phil K might have to increase his numbers. Banking on some of those cold sst's in north atl to spread into mdr.

Careful where you bank! And I believe a number of folks will up their numbers when all is said and done.

[SFLcane]

CSU is banking on the north atl sst's to move into the mdr. Per phil its not a good look for a busy season ahead.

[SFLcane]

If levi's map are correct subsurface is quite cold so cooling maybe around the corner.

[WeatherEmperor]

Even more important than these warm atlantic sst temps is the warm sst temps in the Epac above the equator. So many are over looking this and its impact on atlantic activity. The little cold spot near the Epac equator is the emerging la nina but the warm waters above the equator from the west coast of central america up to the california coast are critical. This can cause tremendous wind shear over the Caribbean and portions of the Mdr. Remember folks sonething like this happened in 1983 and look how that turned out

[NDG]

Even more important than these warm atlantic sst temps is the warm sst temps in the Epac above the equator. So many are over looking this and its impact on atlantic activity. The little cold spot near the Epac equator is the emerging la nina but the warm waters above the equator from the west coast of central america up to the california coast are critical. This can cause tremendous wind shear over the Caribbean and portions of the Mdr. Remember folks sonething like this happened in 1983 and look how that turned out

Believe it or not the SSTs north of the eastern Pacific equatorial waters, as you mention, were average at best during '83's hurricane season.
IMO, as I have been mentioning, the corp was Nino's 1+2 & sections of eastern Nino 3's boiling waters.

[WeatherEmperor]

@Ndg

You make a good point. When I mean similar to 1983 I mean in atmospheric profile not exact temperature profile. In fact, Csu is using 1983 and 1992 as analogs. Yes 1998 is also an analog but its the overall atmosphere that I believe will make this season not as active as some believe. Yes the Atlantic sst is warm but so is the Epac above the equator. Ok so naybe it wont shut down the Atlantic but it will hurt the Atlantic we cannot ignore that. Couple that with the higher than normal sea level pressures forecast across pretty much the entire Mdr by the Euro and you have a season that looks average at best despite the above normal Atkantic sst temps. The Euro wasnt wrong about high pressures last year and I dont see it being wrong this year either. Maybe if the Atlantic gets even warmer than it is now then we have to think about a more active Atlantic

[WPBWeather]

@Ndg

You make a good point. When I mean similar to 1983 I mean in atmospheric profile not exact temperature profile. In fact, Csu is using 1983 and 1992 as analogs. Yes 1998 is also an analog but its the overall atmosphere that I believe will make this season not as active as some believe. Yes the Atlantic sst is warm but so is the Epac above the equator. Ok so naybe it wont shut down the Atlantic but it will hurt the Atlantic we cannot ignore that. Couple that with the higher than normal sea level pressures forecast across pretty much the entire Mdr by the Euro and you have a season that looks average at best despite the above normal Atkantic sst temps. The Euro wasnt wrong about high pressures last year and I dont see it being wrong this year either. Maybe if the Atlantic gets even warmer than it is now then we have to think about a more active Atlantic

A wise tweet from two Pro Mets:

Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 10h10 hours ago

Odds of getting the flu: 13%. Odds of a hurricane landfall this year in FL: 49% (via @philklotzbach). Get your hurricane flu shot @Readygov
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[cycloneye]

The question is which updates more rapidly,NOAA graphics or the Levi CDAS.

[SFLcane]

Anyone got anything on these sst maps? Both paint a very different picture.

[wxman57]

That NOAA/NESDIS SST anomaly map looks quite odd. The NOAA/ESRL map below matches NCEP's, with a cool anomaly in the MDR.

[SFLcane]

Ouch 57..well things continue to go downhill then. when its all said and done the active period of tc in Atl has ended. "Very ugly" look thus far across the basin for 2016. All points to a below average yr.

[cycloneye]

Ouch 57..well things continue to go downhill then. when its all said and done the active period of tc in Atl has ended. "Very ugly" look thus far across the basin for 2016. All points to a below average yr.

I guess you are going down from the 15/8/4 at S2K poll.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ocean temperatures should be a neutral factor across the Main Development Region this year. The negative anomalies that have appeared are not surprising given the persistent +NAO we've seen. Moving forward, the NAO should transition to more Neutral or negative, allowing ocean temperatures to warm again.

With an active African Easterly Jet and strengthening La Nina, an average to slightly above average season is looking likely. An unexpected re-invigoration of El Nino is about the only thing that I see could yield a below-average season, whereas a dramatic shift in the SST configuration would be necessary for a hyperactive year.

[wxman57]

Ouch 57..well things continue to go downhill then. when its all said and done the active period of tc in Atl has ended. "Very ugly" look thus far across the basin for 2016. All points to a below average yr.

Long-range signals indicate unfavorable conditions in the MDR (east of the Caribbean). ECMWF is predicting high pressure dominating the MDR. That, combined with the cooler water may force development farther west - central and western Caribbean.

[WPBWeather]

Ouch 57..well things continue to go downhill then. when its all said and done the active period of tc in Atl has ended. "Very ugly" look thus far across the basin for 2016. All points to a below average yr.

I don't think he is saying that at all as no Pro Met would say what you are interpreting. He can speak for himself, but nothing points to anything definitive about the season.

Long-range signals indicate unfavorable conditions in the MDR (east of the Caribbean). ECMWF is predicting high pressure dominating the MDR. That, combined with the cooler water may force development farther west - central and western Caribbean.

You may be right on this point, but this does not say much about whether there is an active season or not. I will say that Wx 57's view is very conservative. Not right or wrong, but conservative.

[SFLcane]

Seriously?

[WeatherEmperor]

The Noaa sst maps show much warmer anomalies compared to this one. Which one is right? Who knows anymore lol

Seriously?

http://i67.tinypic.com/207aq0l.jpg

[Ntxw]

Would need to look at what climate dataset each uses then we'll figure out. This happens in ENSO quite often, different sources using different climo data. Also we must remember CDAS on tidbits is hourly/daily which can fluctuate quite a bit, while NESDIS is 7 day average