Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[SoupBone]

Oh oh...intensifying TS into FL and into the GOM..

And the GFS says "nahhhh". Does the GFS drop this because it goes over Hispaniola?

[PTrackerLA]

Oh oh...intensifying TS into FL and into the GOM..

If the ridge shunts this more Westward at 192 and beyond this could get ugly in the gulf .

[cycloneye]

Folks,we may be looking at a Hurricane in this run when it reaches the coast where it tracks.

[gatorcane]

Decent winds for West-Central and SW Florida (note those are at the 850MB level in graphic below). Wonder what this will do to the red-tide along the SW Coast of Florida?

[LarryWx]

Surprisingly to me, the Euro has this TC genesis near FL for the 2nd run in a row. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms as @AJC3 can attest to. So, despite two model runs in a row having it and though interesting for sure, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now.

[SFLcane]

All bets are off with those bath waters in the bahamas...

[SoupBone]

If that track were to verify, remember too, Florida is flat. Really flat. So this system wouldn't be hurt by passing over it heading to the GoM.

[cycloneye]

[BobHarlem]

Nothing in the TWO about this yet, maybe it gets a mention tonight or tomorrow based on this euro run.

[cycloneye]

[toad strangler]

I'm not taking any solution verbatim as I'm sure most here aren't. The Euro is unnerving for the obvious reason that the earlier the vort wraps up the more areas that could have a big problem on their hands and seemingly out of the blue. On the other hand, The GFS and CMC has us all with shades and a beer Labor Day weekend.

[SFLcane]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF doesn't bomb it out, probably due to unfavorable upper level winds.

[stormlover2013]

over 9 days away still tons of time to see what happens

[Hurricaneman]

That landfall intensity and area reminds me of a 2005 hurricane but this most likely will have less favorable conditions in the GOM than that one but a strong tropical storm or hurricane can’t be ruled out for Florida yet until the Euro drops it or it goes over the greater Antilles which looking at the crest of the wave seems unlikely

[SFLcane]

[NDG]

I hope this is not yet another Euro vs GFS event.

[gatorcane]

Surprisingly to me, the Euro has this TC genesis near FL for the 2nd run in a row. I'm still not buying this at this time as other models don't agree and the genesis is rather sudden. Also, the 0Z EPS had only 3 of 51 with something like this that attains TS+ strength. In addition, the Euro has fooled us in recent years in this area with fake storms as @AJC3 can attest to. So, despite two model runs in a row having it and though interesting for sure, I caution readers to not get too excited about this at least for now.

Hard to believe the Euro forecast when the incipient wave doesn’t look like much as seen in this loop approaching northern Lesser Antilles:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Ian2401]

I just can't see the Euro's Florida TS verifying given the current upper level conditions.

[wxman57]

And the GFS says "nahhhh". Does the GFS drop this because it goes over Hispaniola?

There is nothing for Hispaniola to disrupt as it passes. It's simply a tropical wave. There is no core. I wouldn't get too excited about this first modelcane of the season. It may develop, but there's certainly no guarantee of development. Could just bring some rain to the Gulf Coast.