2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS has what looks to be a strong wave coming off of Africa in 7 days that I believe is the one in central Africa and has it near Hispaniola at day 16 but never develops it but with the Strong CCKW coming through around that time that particular wave may be the first of many that may need to be watched for development

[tarheelprogrammer]

The GFS at 12z is hinting at some Cape Verde action, possibly, around August 2nd and after that. Almost time to start looking out there at the waves coming off Africa.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe something to watch over the GOM by the end of the week.

[GCANE]

Euro is also picking up the strong wave coming off Africa in about 7 days.
Showing a large, closed 850mb vort

[GCANE]

Quite a bit of moisture over Africa, notably west Sahara and Arabian Penisula.

[NDG]

Was watching models' h50 forecast verifications for this week. Both the Euro and UKMET have been over doing it with ridging across the eastern US, missing the troughs digging down in both this area and Pacifc NW. Something to keep in mind.

[northjaxpro]

Was watching models' h50 forecast verifications for this week. Both the Euro and UKMET have been over doing it with ridging across the eastern US, missing the troughs digging down in both this area and Pacifc NW. Something to keep in mind.

We saw this with Barry.

[NDG]

Was watching models' h50 forecast verifications for this week. Both the Euro and UKMET have been over doing it with ridging across the eastern US, missing the troughs digging down in both this area and Pacifc NW. Something to keep in mind.

We saw this with Barry.

UKMET has been overdoing ridging across the US as short as past its 48-72 hour forecast, at least the Euro most times has only been past its 96-120 hrs.

[GCANE]

Last two runs of GFS is developing a surface low:
10N 50W
Saturday 7/27 06Z

Euro has an open wave at this location and time.

[N2FSU]

18z GFS starting to come alive, right on cue (2 weeks).

[NotSparta]

18z GFS starting to come alive, right on cue (2 weeks).

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/txbSYQjokbmOV9Izdq6XLt7bbJGprdyLc3hvSOvl-WJYWfcEOkD3bYlQM56KzER1B1ptOwA4y4SO9we5zoAzD3hGUhALl6DRzEb0H6RZtzXmWyHGXErfSCEMFRYOFpK3lcabhjX2CTg=w2400

Must have seen the 2013 talk

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Lol go home GFS...you are drunk!!!

Too early!

[USTropics]

Impressive display of convection in the MDR/ITCZ associated with a few AEWs tonight:


Main inhibiting factor remains quite an expansive field of SAL typical of late July (can see it in the image above with the expansion of cirrus clouds north of the waves extending into the Caribbean as well as SAL analysis below):


Main takeaway though, if we continue to see these types of waves going into mid-late August, we could see an active MDR.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF run showing signs of development for a tropical wave departing the coast of Africa in ~72-96 hours. Long-range forecast, but something to monitor considering current evolution of Atlantic (positive MJO pulse with CCKW passage).

[USTropics]

Not the most reliable ensemble model (it has been upgraded recently, so we'll get a true test here), but GEPS (CMC) showing signs of development with the same wave as the ECMWF:

[caneman]

Lol go home GFS...you are drunk!!!

Too early!

How is mid August too early for the MDR?

[USTropics]

ECMWF 00z ensemble tracks @ 240 hrs:

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1154725388758765568

[USTropics]

Impressive what the positive MJO pulse and a passing CCKW has done for the Atlantic (I know Ventrice gets some flak for hyping these passes, but they do have an evident effect), this is actually the wave in the central Atlantic, a small eddy popped out on the NW side. Again, no real chance of development (it should become a dry wave as it continues to push through towards the Caribbean). Coupled with the wave currently off the coast of Africa, will really help moisten the mid-levels and decrease SAL.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1154725388758765568

Something to note.. for the first time this summer there is a large wave over africa that is farther north spreading rain over the southern Saharah region ( the Sahel region I believe particularly the "Bodélé Depression") where most fo the SAL that affects the deeps tropics comes from. It receives rain each spring and summer, but this year up till now has been particularly dry which is why we have seen a rather large uptick in the SAL outbreaks this July in the eastern Atlantic.