2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#261 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:01 am

The 6zGFS has what looks to be a strong wave coming off of Africa in 7 days that I believe is the one in central Africa and has it near Hispaniola at day 16 but never develops it but with the Strong CCKW coming through around that time that particular wave may be the first of many that may need to be watched for development
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#262 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:53 am

The GFS at 12z is hinting at some Cape Verde action, possibly, around August 2nd and after that. Almost time to start looking out there at the waves coming off Africa.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#263 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:17 pm

Maybe something to watch over the GOM by the end of the week.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#264 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:12 am

Euro is also picking up the strong wave coming off Africa in about 7 days.
Showing a large, closed 850mb vort

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#265 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:22 am

Quite a bit of moisture over Africa, notably west Sahara and Arabian Penisula.

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#266 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:32 am

Was watching models' h50 forecast verifications for this week. Both the Euro and UKMET have been over doing it with ridging across the eastern US, missing the troughs digging down in both this area and Pacifc NW. Something to keep in mind.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#267 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:57 pm

NDG wrote:Was watching models' h50 forecast verifications for this week. Both the Euro and UKMET have been over doing it with ridging across the eastern US, missing the troughs digging down in both this area and Pacifc NW. Something to keep in mind.


We saw this with Barry.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#268 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:09 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
NDG wrote:Was watching models' h50 forecast verifications for this week. Both the Euro and UKMET have been over doing it with ridging across the eastern US, missing the troughs digging down in both this area and Pacifc NW. Something to keep in mind.


We saw this with Barry.


UKMET has been overdoing ridging across the US as short as past its 48-72 hour forecast, at least the Euro most times has only been past its 96-120 hrs.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#269 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:45 pm

Last two runs of GFS is developing a surface low:
10N 50W
Saturday 7/27 06Z

Euro has an open wave at this location and time.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#270 Postby N2FSU » Thu Jul 25, 2019 7:45 pm

18z GFS starting to come alive, right on cue (2 weeks).

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#271 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:05 pm

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#272 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:17 pm

Lol go home GFS...you are drunk!!!

Too early!
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#273 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 26, 2019 1:24 am

Impressive display of convection in the MDR/ITCZ associated with a few AEWs tonight:
Image

Main inhibiting factor remains quite an expansive field of SAL typical of late July (can see it in the image above with the expansion of cirrus clouds north of the waves extending into the Caribbean as well as SAL analysis below):
Image

Main takeaway though, if we continue to see these types of waves going into mid-late August, we could see an active MDR.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#274 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:09 am

00z ECMWF run showing signs of development for a tropical wave departing the coast of Africa in ~72-96 hours. Long-range forecast, but something to monitor considering current evolution of Atlantic (positive MJO pulse with CCKW passage).

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#275 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:59 am

Not the most reliable ensemble model (it has been upgraded recently, so we'll get a true test here), but GEPS (CMC) showing signs of development with the same wave as the ECMWF:

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#276 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:22 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Lol go home GFS...you are drunk!!!

Too early!


How is mid August too early for the MDR?
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#277 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:11 am

ECMWF 00z ensemble tracks @ 240 hrs:

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#278 Postby jconsor » Fri Jul 26, 2019 7:34 am

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#279 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:10 am

Impressive what the positive MJO pulse and a passing CCKW has done for the Atlantic (I know Ventrice gets some flak for hyping these passes, but they do have an evident effect), this is actually the wave in the central Atlantic, a small eddy popped out on the NW side. Again, no real chance of development (it should become a dry wave as it continues to push through towards the Caribbean). Coupled with the wave currently off the coast of Africa, will really help moisten the mid-levels and decrease SAL.

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#280 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:32 am




Something to note.. for the first time this summer there is a large wave over africa that is farther north spreading rain over the southern Saharah region ( the Sahel region I believe particularly the "Bodélé Depression") where most fo the SAL that affects the deeps tropics comes from. It receives rain each spring and summer, but this year up till now has been particularly dry which is why we have seen a rather large uptick in the SAL outbreaks this July in the eastern Atlantic.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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