Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[cycloneye]

Invest comming shortly.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[gatorcane]

Invest comming shortly.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

https://i.imgur.com/6E203e1.jpg

NHC graphical outlook seems more SE of the globals on approach to Florida:

[GCANE]

High rain-rate hot tower firing off with a warm-core signature.
21.5N 96W

[floridasun78]

Invest comming shortly.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

https://i.imgur.com/6E203e1.jpg

look low going come in between Tampa and panama beach

[psyclone]

Note that even the development region is leaning right. Kinda curious that the development chances for both day 2 and 5 are 50%. Still a coin toss from the pros.

[Frank2]

If the environment is hostile it would likely be only a sheared rainmaker at best. I agree the models showing a stronger system does not agree with the strong shear that is forecast to continue.

[northjaxpro]

Note that even the development region is leaning right. Kinda curious that the development chances for both day 2 and 5 are 50%. Still a coin toss from the pros.

That NHC development cone out at 2:00 p.m. TWO is definitely south and east from earlier today. This is looking more and more like a significant rain event for North Florida and possibly areas of Central Florida going into the weekend, depending on the eventual track evolution.

[HurricaneBelle]

Tampa Bay area NWS weighs in on the system in their latest AFD:

THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY HAS A PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND BEARS WATCHING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION STILL NEEDS TO BE
REFINED AND THESE DETAILS WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A LARGE PART IN OUR
LOCAL IMPACTS. FOR NOW, THOSE IMPACTS INCLUDE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES
INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO HOPEFULLY NAIL DOWN
SOME DETAILS, SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS.

[floridasun78]

we need see weak front moving into fl that move more south could pull area more to ene not north or north east

[crownweather]

One thing to note is that if this entire system does move in a ENE direction rather than a NNE or NE one, it'll be moving with the wind shear (Wind shear is from a WSW-ENE direction). This, in turn, could create a net low wind shear environment. This may be why the guidance is trending stronger as they are showing a more ENE track & thus a potentially more favorable environment, even though the shear will be strong across the GOM.

[northjaxpro]

One thing to note is that if this entire system does move in a ENE direction rather than a NNE or NE one, it'll be moving with the wind shear (Wind shear is from a WSW-ENE direction). This, in turn, could create a net low wind shear environment. This may be why the guidance is trending stronger as they are showing a more ENE track & thus a potentially more favorable environment, even though the shear will be strong across the GOM.

Astute observation! Indeed this may be what the models are hinting at with this developing cyclone.

[gatorcane]

Euro stronger and no eastward shift. Looks just like it is approaching LA.

[Aric Dunn]

One thing to note is that if this entire system does move in a ENE direction rather than a NNE or NE one, it'll be moving with the wind shear (Wind shear is from a WSW-ENE direction). This, in turn, could create a net low wind shear environment. This may be why the guidance is trending stronger as they are showing a more ENE track & thus a potentially more favorable environment, even though the shear will be strong across the GOM.

Astute observation! Indeed this may be what the models are hinting at with this developing cyclone.

Yeah I mentioned that on the previous page. Adding to that. A large convective mass can also force the upper high north over it as well.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro looks west

[Aric Dunn]

Also looks like we have circ pretty quickly developing on the Se side of that convection around 20n where the two large hot towers are.

[northjaxpro]

Sharp difference with the 12Z EURO vs. GFS and UK MET, which are significantly eastward currently.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro looks west

So consensus of Euro and GFS looks into your locale at least at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Sharp difference with the 12Z EURO vs. GFS and UKMMET, which are significantly eastward currently.

Looks like it is between how the circ develops.

Gfs develops the circ much faster. Then a reformation ene under a large convective burst.

Euro is a slow gradual organization

[chaser1]

After a deeper analysis of the 12Z data thanks to the luxury of a mid-week day off work LOL, a few things seem to come to light. A mid to upper level streak presently over W. Texas looks to quickly develop and drop south into a mid level low by tomorrow morning. This feature looks to increase in size (and vorticity) while moving east along the N. Gulf coast during the next few days. It is THIS feature that the potential S.W. Gulf disturbance appears to interact.... or even become "stacked" under while nearing the Northern Gulf coast somewhere south of Mobile. The timing of this occurring will play a large role whether we see an eventual moderate T.S. move ashore over the W. Panhandle or perhaps a weaker low to develop independent of the Texas mid level feature and perhaps track further east in the process. Looking at this a bit closer now, it seems that slower development of the disturbance would suggest a potential of missing an alignment with this mid level feature moving eastward across the N. Gulf and leave it in a more zonal west to east flow over the GOM. This could suggest a more southern track that moves more toward the ENE and possibly impact areas close to Ceder Key area. If the disturbance were to develop it's own small anticyclone aloft then I could see a T.D. or weak T.S. come out of this scenario. More likely though, I'd think this track and timing would result in the makings of a frontal low. On the other hand, if this disturbance does end up truly entangled with this mid level low feature to develop over Texas, then it is this scenario that models are suggesting would result in a stronger and most likely impact somewhere close to Panama City. Timing here could still present a range from nothing more then a stretched out sharp trough to the potential T.S. that models are now leaning toward.

Whew?! After all that, I still tend to think this will end up as a semi-organized area of 1002 mb slop not worthy of being tagged with a name Then still offshore and within 12 hours of landfall west of Apalachicola, it WILL nonetheless be named "Nestor" and will likely retain it's T.S. designation for about 24 hours even after moving inland due to it's improved vertical alignment with the separate mid level feature interacting with it and probable short term pressure drop and increased wind field. Whether truly tropical or not though, this does look like it could have significant weather impact to inland regions in the form of localized coastal and inland flooding and possible tornadoes over the Panhandle and Southern Alabama & Georgia.

[Ivanhater]

Sharp difference with the 12Z EURO vs. GFS and UK MET, which are significantly eastward currently.

Gfs , euro and Canadian into north central gulf coast, looks consistent